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Surprising UNLV primed to make Mountain West title run

By Doug Carey

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If you bet the over on UNLV’s 2.5 win total back in July, you can start counting your money. The 2-3 Rebels are suddenly in position to win the West Division of the Mountain West after Saturday’s 23-17 win at Nevada.

Remember the so-called experts who mocked UNLV’s “risky” hire of Tony Sanchez from Bishop Gorman High School last fall? It’s still awfully early, but Sanchez has already silenced some of his critics. The same UNLV team that was picked to finish last in the West Division by a wide margin is off to a 1-0 start in conference play with a favorable road up ahead.

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The Rebels put themselves in a great position by winning its annual rivalry game at Nevada despite losing quarterback Blake Decker to a shoulder injury late in the first half. Decker will likely miss next Saturday’s home game against San Jose State, but he could return in two weeks to face Fresno State. The Rebels weren’t nearly as effective with backup Kurt Palandech, but the sophomore did enough to help UNLV hold on for the win. In Sunday’s Las Vegas Review-Journal, columnist Ed Graney called it “one of the biggest in UNLV’s recent football history.”

It says here that bigger wins are on the horizon. The Mountain West is a disaster this season – Boise State excepted, of course.  The conference is 5-25 aainst FBS opponents, including  3-19 against Power Five teams and 0-7 against Top 25 teams. While the Mountain Division offers some hope with Boise State and Utah State, the West Division is truly a dumpster fire.

Start from the bottom, where you can safely eliminate Fresno State (0-2) and Hawaii (0-1) from contention. Both teams’ offenses rank among the worst in the country, and there’s not much reason to believe things will change anytime soon. Nevada (0-1) just lost at home to the Rebels, but we’re not ready to give up on them yet.

In fact, we like Nevada’s chances better than both San Jose State (1-1) and San Diego State (1-0). The Spartans have an impressive secondary and a fantastic running back in Tyler Ervin, but we’re worried the 5-foot-10, 177-pound senior’s heavy workload will cause him to struggle down the stretch. San Diego State’s offense is almost entirely based on its run game, which is fine when Donnel Pumphrey is available.

Unfortunately, Pumphrey suffered a high ankle sprain in Saturday’s 21-7 win over Fresno State and will miss the next several weeks. By the time he returns, we’re guessing the Aztecs will be out of the title race.

Which leads us back to UNLV and Sanchez, who is used to leading teams to championships. (He went 85-5 and won six titles in as many seasons at Bishop Gorman.) The Rebels’ schedule sets up perfectly for them to make a run:

Sat, Oct 10  vs San Jose State
Fri, Oct 16 @ Fresno State
Sat, Oct 31 vs Boise State
Sat, Nov 7 vs Hawaii
Sat, Nov 14 @ Colorado State
Sat, Nov 21 vs San Diego State
Sat, Nov 28 @ Wyoming

We have the Rebels winning three of their next four — sorry, they’re not beating Boise — before rolling toward two winnable games against Colorado State and SDSU.

Win one of those two and them cruise past Wyoming, and the Rebels should be facing Boise State in the Mountain West title game. For a team that has had two winning seasons since 1994, that would be quite a turnaround.

Next: 30 Best College Football Quarterbacks of All-Time

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