NFL mock draft after free agency and a big trade altered the landscape of the first round.
The opening week of NFL free agency saw teams across the league solidify their biggest weaknesses by handing out mega-million contracts so they can enter the NFL Draft without any glaring holes to fill.
It’s a smart strategy to go into the draft with as few of those as possible so you don’t get pigeon holed into taking a certain player or a certain position. But then again, the NFL Draft is where teams want to bolster their roster with young and cost-effective talent.
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In addition to big free agent moves like the Houston Texans signing Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller, the Jets signing Matt Forte and the New York Giants paying big money to Olivier Vernon, Damon Harrison and Janoris Jenkins there was a big trade.
The Miami Dolphins traded the No. 8 pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for the No. 13 pick, Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso.
So with free agency, trades and some prospects already going through their Pro Days the NFL Draft picture is clearing up.
It’s an inexact science but here is my mock draft 3.0.
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No change at the top where Laremy Tunsil has been the top player in my two previous mock drafts. The addition fo the Ole Miss left tackle gives last year’s No. 1 pick Marcus Mariota the protection he needs to develop into the franchise quarterback he looks like he’ll become.
Adding Tunsil means the Titans can kick former first round pick Taylor Lewan to the right tackle spot to give the team an impressive set of bookends to protect the franchise. Tunsil is a starter as soon as he steps foot on the field for the Titans and could be a fixture on the All-Pro teams for the next decade.
I’ve had Carson Wentz mocked to the Browns in the previous two mocks considering the team’s dire need to find a solution at the most important position in sports. I like the potential Wentz provides, but I think even with him on the team the Browns are in position for the No. 1 pick again next year.
So I would pass on a quarterback in this draft and take Jalen Ramsey who is a safer pick than Wentz and could be the next Ed Reed at safety or the next Darrelle Revis at cornerback. He’s a stud and his bust rate is next to zero. I’d take Ramsey this year and draft Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson next year who could be a much better option than Wentz this year. Ramsey and Watson are greater than Wentz and the top defender in next year’s class.
I love the combination of power and speed that DeForest Buckner plays with. He can be a disruptive force as an end in the Chargers 3-4 defense. He is a force against the run and explosive enough to get to the quarterback and approach double-digit sacks.
I’m not buying the Dallas Cowboys would be interested in a quarterback in the first round so even with Wentz and Jared Goff on the board, I think they have to take a player who helps the team win this year. Yes, there are concerns about the long-term future with Tony Romo, but taking a player who can help Romo win lines up with Jerry Jones’ line of thought. Joey Bosa is one of the safest players in the draft and can be plugged in the vacant spot left by Greg Hardy on the defensive line.
The Jacksonville Jaguars addressed some needs on the defensive line and in the secondary in free agency so now they can focus on upgrading the linebacker unit and adding some speed in the form of UCLA linebacker Myles Jack. He should be a tremendous fit in Gus Bradley’s defense because he’s one of the most athletic and fluid linebackers to enter the league in a long time
Next: Picks 6-10
The Baltimore Ravens have the flexibility to go in a number of directions with the sixth pick but I think protecting Joe Flacco and adding some more help on the offensive line is the best way to go. Ronnie Stanley can play right away at either left or right tackle. With Flacco coming off a torn ACL that ended his season and the Ravens season, giving him as much protection as possible is never a bad idea.
I think this is one of the easiest teams to predict in this year’s draft. The San Francisco 49ers can’t pass on a quarterback in their own background again after famously passing on Aaron Rodgers a decade ago in favor of Alex Smith.
Goff enjoyed a record-breaking career at Cal where he was a three-year starter and threw more touchdowns than Marcus Mariota and more yards than any passer in a league known for its quarterbacks. Plus, he showed resiliency after a 1-11 season as a freshman to getting the Bears in a bowl game as a junior. That will be a positive trait for the rebuilding 49ers and new head coach Chip Kelly.
Just like the 49ers, predicting who the Philadelphia Eagles should take at No. 8 is pretty simple. After the trade of DeMarco Murray to the Titans, the team needs a featured back so they don’t have to rely solely on the injury-prone Ryan Matthews.
Elliott is one of the best players in the draft and should be in the Pro Bowl for years to come. He can do it all out of the backfield, including blocking as well as most fullbacks. The Eagles can pencil Elliott into the starting lineup for the next eight years and call it a day.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers already added Brent Grimes in free agency, but they shouldn’t stop upgrading the secondary considering they play in a division with Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. Adding the Florida Gators All-American corner gives them a player who can help slow down the passing attacks they’ll see six times a year in their own division. He was better as a sophomore than as a junior, but he has the ball skills and physical skills to be a difference maker for a long time.
The New York Giants allowed the most passing yards and had the third-fewest sacks last season so they were big spenders in free agency re-signing Jason Pierre-Paul, giving Olivier Vernon a record contract for a defensive end and stealing Damon Harrison away from the Jets.
I previously had Clemson DE Shaq Lawson in this spot but now I think they look to find a target opposite Odell Beckham Jr. with Victor Cruz‘ health a concern. Laquon Treadwell is the best receiver in the draft but questions will linger until he runs his 40 at his Pro Day later this month. Unless he bombs and runs a 4.7, I think Treadwell remains a top-10 prospect and a nice pick opposite Beckham for the G-Men.
Next: Picks 11-15
The Chicago Bears upgraded the linebacker unit with the signings of Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman so they don’t need to take Reggie Ragland or roll the dice on a health-risk like Jaylon Smith in the first round. The Bears could take an offensive tackle like Jack Conklin or a receiver like Corey Coleman but think taking the best defensive player available is the best bet for GM Ryan Pace.
Taking A’Shawn Robinson is a low-risk move and maybe a boring one for Bears fans, but he adds depth to the defensive line and could push Ego Ferguson and Will Sutton for a roster spot after lackluster beginnings to their career for the former second and third round picks.
The New Orleans allowed 45 passing touchdowns last year, nine more than the second-worst pass defense in the NFL and need a shutdown corner in the secondary. Mackensie Alexander can be a shutdown corner after shutting down ACC receivers the last two years at Clemson.
With Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Matt Ryan on the schedule six times a year, the Saints have to find a player who can slow down Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans and Julio Jones or they’re going to find themselves with another losing season.
The Miami Dolphins swapped Mario Williams in for Olivier Vernon but still need to add to their depth on the edge with Shaq Lawson. He led the nation in tackles for loss last year and stepped up in a big way for a Clemson defense that lost so much star power to the NFL and graduation last offseason. With Cameron Wake recovering from an Achilles injury, adding Lawson to the rotation provides insurance in case he’s slow to recover or a cap casualty in June.
Don’t look now but the Oakland Raiders are putting together a nice roster that should find themselves in contention for the AFC West and a playoff spot this season. The Raiders added Bruce Irvin in free agency to provide a pass rush opposite All-Pro Khalil Mack but can still use some push along the interior of the line, which is exactly what Sheldon Rankins can do. His ability to collapse the pocket will free Mack and Irvin on the edges and conversely the attention they receive on the edge gives Rankins opportunities to beat single blocking.
I had Carson Wentz going No. 2 after the combine and before free agency began but his fall stops here in this post-free agency mock. It’s not because he’s any less of a prospect, it’s just that there’s only one team who would need to take a QB with the No. 2 pick and the 49ers take the local product in Goff.
If he falls here, it would be a blessing for the Los Angeles Rams who need a long-term solution with Case Keenum and Nick Foles not long-term options. The Rams could be patient with Wentz while Keenum/Foles try not to get in the way of Todd Gurley until the FCS product is up to the NFL’s speed.
Next: Picks 16-20
The Detriot Lions added Marvin Jones in free agency after the retirement of Calvin Johnson but he’s not going to replace Megatron, so I think they go to the wide receiver well again. With Treadwell off the board, the Lions go with TCU’s Josh Doctson who ran and tested well at the Combine and likely would have won the Biletnikoff last year if not for an injured wrist. Matthew Stafford needs weapons and Doctson gives him a player who can win individual battles and go up and get the ball.
The Atlanta Falcons need to find a pass rusher and Leonard Floyd is the best edge rusher on the board. He showed flashes of being an elite pass rusher at Georgia but never put together the string of performances you’d like to see. Still, the potential is there and it’ll be up to the Falcons to tap into that and turn the potential into production.
If the Indianapolis Colts don’t upgrade the offensive line with this pick you can bet Andrew Luck will be stroking his beard and wondering what the heck GM Ryan Grigson is doing. Luck battled injuries last year after getting the crap beat out of him and needs a personal protector like Jack Conklin to keep him healthy and upright so he can get back to the form he displayed before his injury-marred 2015 season.
The Buffalo Bills let Mario Williams go this offseason so they could try to plug that hole with a defensive end like Kevin Dodd but I think linebacker is more of a pressing need for Rex Ryan’s team. I love Darron Lee and his performance at the Combine showed he has elite traits to go with elite tape. He is a guy with a knack for creating turnovers and making splash plays, which is something the Bills need if they’re going to snap the NFL’s longest postseason drought.
The New York Jets need to find an edge rusher so they’d gobble up Floyd if he was available, but in this mock draft, they have to settle for Noah Spence who had a less-than-stellar showing at the Combine. He fared better at his pro day shortly after but with off-the-field concerns stemming from his dismissal at Ohio State, this would be a risky move for the Jets. As a fallback plan, the Jets could go for a cornerback like Eli Apple to play opposite Darrelle Revis after cutting Antonio Cromartie in the offseason.
Next: Picks 20-25
The Washington Redskins have a need for a run-stuffing defensive tackle and that’s exactly what Jarran Reed did at Alabama and what he can do for Jay Gruden’s team. Overshadowed at times by his teammates in Tuscaloosa, Reed is a player who can stuff running backs in the backfield, although won’t provide much of a pass rush.
The Houston Texans found their quarterback and running back in free agency with the additions of Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller, so now they can turn their focus to other positions in the first round. Adding Will Fuller and his 4.32 speed opposite DeAndre Hopkins gives Osweiler another playmaker than can help him fulfill the potential the team saw in him to pay him big bucks in free agency.
The Minnesota Vikings need to do everything they can to build around quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and they could go to Corey Coleman to fill a need at receiver or they could take an offensive lineman like Taylor Decker who can play both tackle and guard spots. I’m partial to size in these toss-ups and think Decker would be able to move along the line and would be a dream to coach.
I think Coleman is a perfect fit for the Cincinnati Bengals after they lost Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu in free agency. Adding the Biletnikoff Award winner who scored 20 touchdowns last year to complement A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert gives Andy Dalton an impressive set of triplets.
The Pittsburgh Steelers secondary will get a boost with the return of Senquez Golson who missed his rookie season but they should double up on the position and take Ohio State’s Eli Apple. This would give the Steelers a young tandem that can grow together behind a promising group of linebackers.
Next: Picks 26-31
The Seattle Seahawks get a player who once was considered a candidate to be the first overall selection. Robert Nkemdiche has the look of someone who is that type of prospect, but his tape never consistently matched his measurables. Coupled with his off-the-field concerns this is why a top-five talent drops to the bottom of the first. The Seahawks can afford to gamble on a high-risk, high-reward type of player.
The Green Bay Packers didn’t get the type of production they needed from the interior defensive line last year so defensive tackle was already a priority for the team. But after the sudden retirement ofB.J. Raji, the Packers can’t pass up a tackle here, even in a tackle-rich draft. Andrew Billings can step right in and produce at a higher level than Raji.
The Kansas City Chiefs lost Sean Smith in free agency and Phillip Gaines is coming off an injury so they take Houston Cougars cornerback William Jackson III who tore up the Combine and is one of the fastest rising players in the draft. He could be a nickel initially as a rookie before earning a starting corner spot.
The Arizona Cardinals filled their biggest need with the trade for Chandler Jones from New England for former top-10 pick Jon Cooper and a second round pick. The Cardinals can double up and take Kevin Dodd or Emmanuel Ogbah here but I think Bruce Arians will want to find his quarterback of the future and takes Paxton Lynch who can sit for a year or two behind Carson Palmer.
The Carolina Panthers lost Jared Allen to retirement and Charles Johnson isn’t getting any younger, so adding a pass rusher with Emmanuel Ogbah’s upside is a solid move. He put up nice numbers at Oklahoma State even though his play was spotty at times. He didn’t always play like a first rounder but he tested like a top-15 pick at the Combine by running a 4.63 40 and having a 35.5 inch vertical and a 10′ broad jump.
There will be plenty of talk about the Denver Broncos taking a quarterback like Connor Cook after losing Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler this offseason, but I think that’s too much of a reach and simply, Reggie Ragland is one of the top 15 prospects in this draft.
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Inside linebackers like Ragland don’t get drafted high anymore but after the loss of Danny Trevathan in free agency, the Broncos can plug in Ragland who was the SEC Defensive Player of the Year last year and has experience in a 3-4 scheme.