What if Chip Kelly never left Oregon for the Philadelphia Eagles?

Logan Shaw

Dec 28, 2014; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly before the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Chip Kelly quickly rose to one of the best college football coaches at Oregon before leaving to coach in the NFL with the Philadelphia Eagles, but what if Kelly never left Eugene?

What if questions are what keep us going as fans. What if? I’ve been to a lot of college football games in my short lifetime. Most of the time, the team I choose to root for loses.

However, what keeps me there when my team is down by two touchdowns with thirty seconds left is the simple question, what if? What if we see a Miracle at the Meadowlands? What if they score here, kick an onside kick, recover it, etc?

Would Oregon have that elusive National Championship?

That’s not an easy question. Oregon fans would like to believe so, but even if Oregon did make it to the National Championship last year, could they have beaten Florida State, assuming that they would be ranked ahead of Auburn?

Well, if this year’s game was any indication, Oregon could have beaten the undefeated Seminoles, as they dismantled the ‘Noles, 59-20, this past January in the inaugural FBS playoff game. However, comparing a team one year to the next isn’t fair.

Would Kelly at the helm make that much of a difference? By the statistics, under Mark Helfrich, Oregon’s offense has averaged 556 yards per game, and under Kelly, the Ducks only averaged 500 yards per game.

These stats are surprising. However, they might be a little inflated. When Kelly took over in 2009, he was working with less talent than the recent Oregon football teams. In 2009, the Ducks only averaged 412 yards per game, 135 yards per game less than the most recent Ducks’ team.

However, in 2009, Oregon’s defense under Kelly allowed only 363 yards per game, as compared to Helfrich’s Ducks’ 2014 season, of which the Ducks allowed 429 yards per game.

What does this mean? Well, even though Kelly’s an offensive guy, statistics show that his defenses averaged less yards per game than Helfrich’s by about thirty yards. These stats could also be inflated due to the speed of the offense.

Back in 2009, Oregon’s offense, in comparison to the 2014 team, ran a slower offense, as the players were trying grasp the system. A quicker, more efficient offense means more time on defense, thus resulting in more defensive yards. Kelly’s offense did pick up once the players bought into the system, and it carried over into Helfrich’s tenure.

So, saying all this, if Kelly was still the Ducks’ head coach, would they have won National Championship by now?

Maybe, and here’s why:

During Helfrich’s two-year run as the Ducks’ head coach, Oregon has only lost four games, Stanford, Arizona (2), and Ohio State in the National Championship. Would Kelly be the difference in those losses? Possibly.

However, was Oregon the best team in college football last year? If no, does having Kelly make them the best? If no, again, ask yourself the same question about this past season. Would a Kelly coached team beat Ohio State in the National Championship?

Potentially, and I think last year would have been Oregon’s best shot at a National Championship, if Kelly was the head coach.

Kelly is a great coach. He did big things at Oregon, and he could have accomplished much more if he hadn’t left. However, it’s only been two seasons since he last coached for the Ducks, and in my opinion, I think Mark Helfrich is doing a great job.

He may not be recruiting as well as Kelly, but he’s doing well. I fully expect to see the Ducks back in the title game in the near future.

Next: Would Marcus Mariota Have Another Heisman?

Dec 13, 2014; New York, NY, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota kisses the Heisman Trophy during a press conference at the New York Marriott Marquis after winning the Heisman Trophy. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Would Marcus Mariota have won a second Heisman Trophy?

Well, that’s hard to say.

Jameis Winston had a great year last year. His Seminoles went undefeated, and he had a very good season for a redshirt freshman. However, what if Chip Kelly was coaching the Ducks in 2013? Would that be the difference in Jameis winning the Heisman versus Mariota?

Let’s look at the stats.

In Winston’s 2013 Heisman campaign, he threw for 289 yards per game, 40 touchdowns, and ran for 219 yards. Winston completed 67% of his passes, but threw 10 interceptions in the process. Winston’s biggest Heisman draw was his team’s undefeated record. Florida State was the best college football team in 2013. They won, and they won big.

However, what if Oregon was also undefeated? Mariota also had a great year in 2013, but the Ducks failed to win the Pac-12. The Ducks lost two conference regular season games which landed them in the Alamo Bowl versus Texas. As I mentioned earlier, does a Chip Kelly coached team win one or two of those games the Ducks lost in 2013? Possibly.

In 2013, Mariota threw for 282 yards per game, 31 touchdowns, and ran for 715 yards. Mariota also averaged 7.4 yards per carry, and threw only four interceptions. Mariota’s numbers were arguably better than Winston’s.

Now, if you add Chip Kelly to the mix, what happens?

If the Ducks were undefeated in 2013, would Mariota have two Heisman trophies?

I don’t think so.

Jameis Winston had a great year, and his team was unstoppable. Chip Kelly would have had a big impact on whether or not Mariota could have won the Heisman in 2013, but I think Kelly’s influence wouldn’t have mattered in the end. That was just the year of Jameis Winston and Florida State and their dominating team..

Next: Would Mariota be a better NFL prospect than Winston then?

Nov 1, 2014; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota (8) throws the ball before the game against the Stanford Cardinal at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

Would Mariota be a lock as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft?

This brings up a fair amount of questioning. Would he surpass Winston if Kelly was still coaching in Eugene? Perhaps.

NFL teams love winners. It’s a great quality to have. However, what NFL scouts love more than winners are prototypical NFL quarterbacks. In college, Winston played in more of a pro-style offense than Mariota and doesn’t have as many questions about his ability to make NFL throws.

Mariota played in a non-pro-style offense at Oregon. History tells us that this doesn’t bode well in the NFL, but could Kelly’s star pupil be the trend of a new breed of quarterback?

What if Mariota was an aforementioned two-time Heisman trophy winner? Would he be an absolute lock, considering he’d likely be considered one of the best to ever play in college? I wouldn’t call him a lock, but he would have a much better chance of being in the top two than he does this year.

Okay, so, what role does Kelly play into this?

Kelly is a good coach, so is Helfrich, but then again, so is Kelly. Referring back to the previous slide, I don’t think Kelly would have been the difference maker in whether or not Mariota could have been a two-time Heisman trophy winner.

However, NFL scouts also value a player more if he’s been coached up by a respected staff. Helfrich’s current staff at Oregon is respected. but not to the level of Kelly and it still doesn’t change the concerns about if he’s a system quarterback, so he would still fall behind Winston in the NFL draft.

Next: Impact on Recruiting in the Pac-12?

Jan 1, 2015; Pasadena, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks running back Royce Freeman (21) celebrates making a touchdown with teammates during the second half against the Florida State Seminoles in the 2015 Rose Bowl college football game at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Would Chip Kelly be an Ace Recruiter?

This is an absolute yes.

As I stated earlier, during Kelly’s tenure as the Ducks’ head coach, the Ducks averaged the thirteenth best recruiting class in the nation. That level of recruiting would either improve or continue if Kelly stayed in Eugene. Kids love Kelly.

Saying all this, Helfrich is not doing a bad job, either. In Helfrich’s two full recruiting classes as Oregon’s head coach, he’s averaged the No. 22 class in the nation. That’s nothing to be upset about. However, compared to Kelly’s first two classes, Helfrich has work to do to see if he can find the next Mariota.

In Kelly’s first two years as the Ducks’ head coach, he brought in the No. 13 and No. 9 classes in the nation, per rivals. Kelly sold swagger and a new type of football. Recruits loved it.

Kelly’s classes would only improve, but at what risk? During the last year of Kelly’s tenure, the Oregon football program was under investigation for a certain usage of scouting services. Oregon was penalized, resulting in loss of scholarships and probation. Kelly was long gone by then.

In Helfrich’s defense, Oregon losing Kelly sort of lost some of the momentum for the Ducks on the recruiting trail. However, Helfrich is doing a great job, and is slowly reloading the Ducks for potential playoff runs in the future.

Next: What about the Eagles?

Nov 16, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly talks to wide receiver Jordan Matthews (81) in the fourth quarter during the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

What would this mean for the Philadelphia Eagles?

Now this is where it gets fun…

During Kelly’s run in Philadelphia, the Eagles have gone 20-12 under Kelly. The season before Kelly’s arrival, the Eagles went 4-12. Kelly had them back in the playoffs and began changing the NFL as we know it.

So, what if the Eagles hadn’t signed Kelly away from the Ducks? Where would they have gone with their head coaching search? Would Bruce Arians be coaching in Philadelphia now?

Okay, let’s just say Arians decided to coach the Philadelphia Eagles over the Arizona Cardinals back in 2013. Would DeSean Jackson still be wearing the green and black? LeSean McCoy?

Kelly has gained lots of power in Philadelphia. I believe that’s one of the main things that swayed him towards Philadelphia, that and he didn’t have to recruit, anymore. Kelly likes what he likes. He wants guys that will buy into his system and succeed, but what does this mean for Jackson and McCoy?

You’d think that both of these guys would be the ideal fit for Kelly’s offense, right? They’re quick, fast, agile, whatever adjective you’d describe Oregon’s offense under Kelly, they were it. So, what was the deal?

Nov 3, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy (25) and Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson (10) on the sidelines during the fourth quarter against the Oakland Raiders at O.co Coliseum. The Eagles won 49-20. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports

Well, Jackson wasn’t the best all-around “Kelly guy”. According to NJ.com, the team had “serious concerns” about Jackson’s work ethic, attitude and connection to a Los Angeles gang and released him last year.

Jackson was signed by the division rival Washington Redskins and had 56 catches for 1,169 yards and six touchdowns in his first season.

McCoy’s exit was a little cleaner than Jackson’s, but it was more of a surprise. McCoy was traded for Buffalo Bill and former Oregon linebacker, Kiko Alonso one year removed from leading the NFL in rushing.

Why? Well, Yahoo reports show that McCoy’s cap number was $10.25 million. Other reports from philly.com say that McCoy and Kelly’s relationship was a little strained this season.

In Kelly’s defense, running backs tend to have a short lifespan in the NFL, and if Kelly’s offensive system is so great, why couldn’t they be just as good without McCoy with a cheaper option at running back?

Next: Would McCoy and Jackson still be Eagles?

Dec 1, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson (10) talks with running back LeSean McCoy (25) along the sidelines during the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles defeated the Cardinals 24-21. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Would McCoy and Jackson still be Eagles?

Well, yes and no.

The above words aren’t a typical phrase to describe an uncertain, yet partial answer, they answer the above question. McCoy yes. Jackson no.

Well, obviously Jackson was on his way out. He wore out his welcome and had some off-field concerns that proved too much of a risk. Jackson was a goner with or without Kelly in Philadelphia.

McCoy, however, would still be an Eagle.

Now, granted, anything’s possible. Perhaps the Eagles’ GM also had a say in whether or not McCoy would be an Eagle in 2015. Maybe the Pennsylvania native would have had more say in the team’s decision to trade him to Buffalo.

I believe McCoy would still be an Eagle. He’s one of the best in the game. Sure running backs have a short lifespan in the NFL, but McCoy would be that team, if it weren’t for Kelly.

However, when you think about Philly without Kelly, you have to think about what the quarterback situation would look like?

Nick Foles started rising in NFL stardom in the latter part of Andy Reid’s last season, and when Chip Kelly came over from Oregon, he blossomed as a potential rising star. Mark Sanchez however, well, you know.

Next: Would Nick Foles be the guy in Philadelphia? Would Mark Sanchez still be a thing?

Nov 2, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles (9) during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Would Nick Foles be the guy in Philadelphia? Would Mark Sanchez still be a thing?

Well, if Foles’ first season under Kelly was any indicator of how good of a player he is, you betcha. However, in the season before Kelly’s arrival, Foles, who was battling Michael Vick for playing time, and finished the season with almost twice as many turnovers as he had touchdowns.

So that’s where the question derives from, would Nick Foles be the player he is, was in 2013, without Kelly?

Foles was injured in the 2014 season. He led the Eagles to a 6-2 record as the starter, but statistically, he wasn’t doing great, which raised a lot of eyebrows around the league. Maybe he’s not a Kelly guy? Kelly likes agile, dual-threat guys, and Foles is capable of being that, just not like what Kelly had at Oregon.

Kelly’s offense works wonders on both levels of football. However, as Nick Foles can attest to, playing quarterback for Kelly in the NFL may be a risky job, as Kelly’s offense sometimes exposes quarterbacks to big hits. Foles had a great 2013 campaign. I’m not quite ready to say he’s the guy in Philadelphia, but what would he be without Kelly in Philadelphia?

Well, we saw what he was without Kelly in his rookie season, but does he have the tools to excel out of Kelly’s offense? That’s the question. I’ll answer it by saying this, there are many NFL teams that would gladly welcome Nick Foles into their franchise, but would he succeed? That remains uncertain.

I will say this, though, he had a heck of year back in 2013, and that season he showed lots of promise. So yeah, I think Foles could potentially be an average quarterback in the NFL, if he was in the right system.

Sanchez, without Kelly, on the other hand, would likely be found trying out for the NFL at this year’s NFL Veteran Combine. Kelly’s a fan of Sanchez, calling him a “hell of a quarterback” when they signed him, and for awhile Sanchez held his own after Foles went down to an injury.

This quote might as well read, “said no one, ever”. However, Sanchez worked in Kelly’s offense. So that raises the question, can anyone quarterback the Eagles?

Next: So, what if Kelly never left Oregon?

Nov 2, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

So, what if Kelly never left Oregon?

So, what if?

Would the Ducks be National Champs? Would Mariota be considered one of the greatest college quarterbacks of all time? Would the Eagles be better or worse without him?

What if?

We don’t know. It didn’t happen that way. We, as fans, live and dream by the what if questions. That’s why we continue to love the game. To the fans, it’s more than just a what if a possibilities. These are the questions that keep us going, that keep us awake at night. Could we have done this…? Could we have done that…? What would happen if we did this…?

Chip Kelly left Oregon to coach the Philadelphia Eagles. He never won a National Championship. He never coached a Heisman trophy winner. He’s now the coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, and he has a bright future ahead of him.

What’s past is the past. Oregon fans and college football fans alike can only dream of the possibilities that would’ve come with Chip electing to stay at Oregon to coach the Ducks.

Next: Pac 12 Spring Practice: Biggest question for each team

Logan Shaw

Born and raised in Nashville, TN. I am a long-time Vanderbilt fan, so you know I don't enjoy winning. I have a passion for sports writing, and I love sharing my lack of competency with others.