Jan 1, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban on the field prior to the 2015 Sugar Bowl against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Alabama Crimson Tide Head Coach Nick Saban has had a huge impact on college football since returning to the sport. But what if he never left the LSU Tigers?
You thought it was crazy when we documented what would have happened if Steve Spurrier never left Florida or Chip Kelly never left Oregon?
That pales in comparison to how different the college football world would be had Nick Saban never left the LSU Tigers.
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The Alabama Crimson Tide head coach obviously left LSU in 2004 to become the head coach of the Miami Dolphins for two years before returning to the sport for the 2007 and cementing his status as one of the greatest coaches to ever grace a college football field.
Saban’s moves there caused one coaching change that never would have happened and that would have set in motion an amazing set of events that would have the college football landscape looking, ironically, eerily similar to the landscape today.
The process, however, would have been dramatically different.
So let’s go step by step and see how things would be different, starting with what Nick Saban’s track record would look like along with that of the LSU Tigers.
Next: Not Much Difference in Nick Saban's or LSU's Records
Nov 9, 2013; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; LSU Tigers head coach Les Miles and Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban greet each other midfield before the start of their game at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
The LSU Tigers and Nick Saban would have similar records to what they have now anyway
Since Nick Saban left LSU, the Tigers have gone 103-29 with two SEC championships and a national championships. Saban’s numbers at Alabama are obviously better with three national championships and two SEC Championships. But his record is 86-17, very close to LSU’s record under Miles.
Now, it is likely LSU would have a bit more success had Saban stayed there, particularly coming down to one specific season: 2011, when Alabama beat LSU for the national title. That would not have happened had Saban been at LSU.
So we could say LSU’s record would be about the same with a few more wins and one, maybe two, more national titles. But those titles come down to one or two games. Saban’s record would not be different by that much with the Tigers.
We will go with two national titles, two conference titles, and seven more wins overall, meaning right now Saban’s tenure at LSU would have included three national titles in 2003, 2007, and 2011, and four SEC titles with the three national title years plus the 2001 SEC title.
And that works perfect because in the eyes of many, Saban’s 2011 national title is not legitimate anyway.
Next: Alabama's Next Head Coach-Bobby Petrino
Oct 18, 2014; Louisville, KY, USA; The Louisville Cardinals head coach Bobby Petrino waves to fans during the Card March before facing the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Papa John
Bobby Petrino would still be at Louisville after being hired…and fired…from Alabama
After Rich Rodriguez had turned down Alabama, Mal Moore took another chance at Nick Saban and succeeded. But had he failed, the next in line would have been Bobby Petrino, according to reports and Nick Saban’s agent Jimmy Sexton quoted in AL.com. That means Petrino would have been at Alabama in 2007 and never left for the NFL.
What would have happened?
Well, he would have brought in Top 15 classes to play like Top Five teams. The Tide under Petrino would have had slightly more success than Arkansas but not the same amount of success they have had under Saban. We are thinking consistently Top 10 seasons, perhaps a conference title, and maybe, just maybe, a national title, but not likely.
And then, just like at Arkansas, Petrino would have been fired. You think he could have pulled that off at Alabama any more than he pulled it off at Arkansas? Of course not.
We will say he would have been caught in some other unforgivable scandal that Alabama could not look away from, and he would have been fired immediately because of it. We will even go as far to say it would have happened a year before it happened at Arkansas, since he would have been at Alabama a year before he went to Arkansas.
That means Petrino’s career at Alabama would have gone from 2007 to 2010, and he would have been fired in April of 2011, leaving Alabama in trouble for that Fall.
We’ll get to what would have happened to the Tide after that later. There are a few more events due to Saban staying at LSU that would actually affect who the Tide would hire after Petrino.
But right now, because Petrino would have gone to Alabama as a result of Saban being at LSU, let’s see who would have gone to Arkansas.
Next: Will Muschamp Would Have Gone to Arkansas
Apr 18, 2015; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers defensive coordinator Will Muschamp watches his squad during the A-Day game at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
Arkansas would have hired Will Muschamp
Yep, Will Muschamp would be at Arkansas. You may remember that after Houston Nutt resigned from the school in 2007, lots of coaches turned down the chance to coach the Razorbacks. Muschamp, however, would not have been one of them.
And he appeared to be next on the list after Petrino during that time. So with Petrino going to Alabama because Saban was at LSU, Muschamp would have been Arkansas’s guy.
That brings up the million dollar question: how would Muschamp have fared at Arkansas? In truth, not so bad.
Remember, Muschamp does have great defenses, and he would have made sure the Hogs always had amazing defenses to play with. He also recruits well. His only problem was that he never even made an effort to recruit good offensive players.
But in 2008, he would have struck gold because Ryan Mallett would have transferred back to Arkansas no matter what happened, so a good quarterback would have fallen into his lap, and he probably would have hired a solid offensive coordinator to work with that quarterback. That means that after a terrible 2008 year, he would have been highly successful in 2009 and 2010 with dominant defenses and a solid quarterback to manage a competent offense, which he never had at Florida.
Mallett also would likely have not left for the NFL after 2010 because Petrino would not have been there to make his stats look so great, so he would have been at Arkansas in 2011 for another successful season.
That means the honeymoon under Muschamp would not be over until at least 2012, and he would have probably had one decent season among 2012, 2013, and 2014, and that would not be enough to get him fired given the early success that he had with the Razorbacks.
In short, Muschamp would still be the head coach of the Razorbacks. But who else in college football would have been affected by Saban staying at LSU?
Next: Another National Title for Mack Brown
Dec 30, 2013; San Antonio, TX, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Mack Brown reacts during the post game press conference after a game against the Oregon Ducks at Alamo Dome. Oregon defeated Texas 30-7. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Mack Brown would have won another National Title, this time with Colt McCoy
In 2009, there were clearly three teams, Texas, Florida, and Alabama, that stood above everybody else. With Saban at LSU causing Petrino to be at Alabama, those still would have been the top three teams.
But this time, Florida would have won the SEC Championship over Alabama and gone to play for the national title. At that point, the game would have been totally different than the one that happened between Texas and Alabama. Colt McCoy would likely not have gotten hurt, and Brown would have humbled an extremely hyped up Florida team behind McCoy the way he humbled USC behind Vince Young in 2005.
Texas would definitely have won that national title, and we would be sitting here today elevating Brown to a higher status than he has already been elevated to. Winning two national championships would have put him in an extremely elite class of coaches.
The only reason this might not have happened is that it’s not like Florida did not have the team to beat Texas. It is just my opinion that the Longhorns were a bit better that year. It is also true that Petrino could have beaten Meyer in the SEC Championship, but it’s hard to believe he would have been able to recruit the same elite defensive players Saban was able to.
So taking those two things into account, the national title for the 2009-2010 season would have been undefeated Florida against undefeated Texas, and a healthy Colt McCoy would have led the Longhorns over Tim Tebow’s Gators.
And speaking of Urban Meyer and Florida…
Next: Urban Meyer Might have Stayed Another Year at Florida
Jan 24, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer takes the team out for the national championship celebration at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Urban Meyer would not have left Florida until 2011
One thing about Urban Meyer is clear: his resignation from Florida was nothing more than running away. Don’t forget that he wanted to resign back in 2009 after losing to Alabama, but he stayed another year.
It has been my belief that he wanted to resign then because he knew he was losing Tebow, Charlie Strong, the defensive mind that brought him two titles, had left for Louisville, and Saban was going to always out-recruit him at Alabama. But had Saban stayed at LSU, there is a very good chance Meyer would not have wanted to leave.
After all, LSU was going to compete with Florida in recruiting anyway. Alabama under Petrino would not be recruiting the same way Meyer was recruiting. So he would only have to worry about LSU, as opposed to LSU and Alabama. And that makes all the difference.
As a result, even after the rough 2010 season due to the departure of Tebow, Meyer would have been able to chalk that up to a rebuilding year, and he likely still would have returned for another season. He would not be running from any pressure he already knew existed and would have no incentive to get out of the conference before his program got embarrassed.
That means he would have spent the 2011 season with the Gators and probably had lots more success than Muschamp had at Florida that year. But when Ohio State came calling at the end of the 2011 year, that is when Meyer would have likely left.
And he would be with the Buckeyes in 2012 anyway. So who, then, would be at Florida?
Next: Steve Addazio Would be at Florida
Nov 22, 2014; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Boston College Eagles head coach Steve Addazio during the game against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports
Steve Addazio would have been hired as head coach of the Florida Gators
Steve Addazio left in 2010 to become the head coach of the Temple Owls. Immediately he had success by taking them 9-4 and surprising everybody. As a result, Jeremy Foley would have brought back the Florida assistant under Meyer.
Think about it. Saban staying at LSU means Meyer would not have had to worry about Alabama, so he would have stayed at Florida another year, meaning when he did leave for Ohio State the field of candidates would be different.
Muschamp, given what we described earlier, would ironically still be a candidate given the fact that we think he would have had success at Arkansas. But he would have been too obvious of a choice, so Foley, who likes to be a star and show off his genius in coaching hires, would have gone unconventional and picked Addazio.
And to be fair, it may not be a terrible hire.
Addazio has had some solid success at Boston College over the last two years, and he could probably adapt his offense to the talent brought in at Florida. He would likely not have the success that Urban Meyer had or the success that Jim McElwain will have, but he would have enough to still be on the job going into the 2015 season.
So with Saban staying at LSU, the SEC coaching landscape would include at this point Will Muschamp at Arkansas and Steve Addazio at Florida. Where would Les Miles be?
Next: Les Miles to Michigan
Nov 27, 2014; College Station, TX, USA; LSU Tigers head coach Les Miles on the sideline during the second quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Les Miles would be head coach of the Michigan Wolverines
If Nick Saban never left LSU, Les Miles never would have been hired. If Miles had never been hired, he likely would have enjoyed more success at Oklahoma State until he was the top candidate for a more high-profile job.
After 2005, there was no position of a higher profile than the Cowboys that would have called Miles. After 2007, Petrino would be a higher profile than him, so Alabama would have picked Petrino. Miami was going to pick Randy Shannon no matter what. Outside of those two, Miles had no reason to leave Oklahoma State.
Bring on the end of the 2007 season. Miles would likely have had three more years of success, and Michigan would have come calling him home with Lloyd Carr’s retirement. And while he came extremely close to taking the job the last time, he would have had no hard choice to make were he at Oklahoma State.
Miles would be heading to Ann Arbor, and he would still be there today. Now, how successful would he have been?
Honestly, that’s a tough question.
Miles did a great job rebuilding Oklahoma State. He did a great job maintaining what was at LSU. But going to Michigan would mean turning a mediocre program into what he built at LSU, and he has not proven an ability to do that. However, we know he can recruit, he does enough to win, and he has stingy defenses.
We are going to be willing to say that Michigan would have been a powerhouse program during this time and could, emphasis on the word could, have a national title by this point. They would have multiple Big Ten titles for sure.
And Miles would not have been fired yet, which also means…
Next: Rich Rodriguez Still at West Virginia
Nov 1, 2014; Pasadena, CA, USA; Arizona Wildcats head coach Rich Rodriguez during warm-ups before the game against the UCLA Bruins at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Rich Rodriguez would never have left the West Virginia Mountaineers
After what took place at Michigan, Rich Rodriguez regretted leaving West Virginia. Despite all the animosity the school had toward him, he would still be in Morgantown had Saban stayed at LSU.
Rodriguez would not have left West Virginia, even if he was feeling pushed out, for any job other than an extremely high-profile one. Michigan was that in 2007, but they would have hired Miles. Nebraska was there too, but Bo Pelini was always Tom Osborne’s guy.
At the end of 2008, Tennessee and Auburn were on the list. But the athletic directors of both schools were determined to make idiotic decisions instead. Auburn always had its sights set on the unqualified Gene Chizik for reasons nobody can explain, and Mike Hamilton, obsessed with making dumb hires, was sold on Lane Kiffin.
That would mean no high-profile jobs for Rodriguez going into 2009 either.
By 2009, Rodriguez would have had more success at West Virginia and come to appreciate what he had there, and he would have made the personal decision never to leave the school at that point. As a result, he would still be there now, winning big and competing for national championships.
Who the coach at Arizona would be, I don’t know, but it would not be Rodriguez had Saban never left LSU.
And if Miles truly did become the head coach at Michigan, there is another head coach whose career would be affected, which we get to next.
Next: Jim Harbaugh Still in the NFL
Apr 4, 2015; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh is seen during the Spring football game at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Jim Harbaugh would likely be the head coach of the Oakland Raiders
Saban does not leave LSU. Miles as a result does not go to LSU. Miles goes to Michigan. That affects Jim Harbaugh’s career.
The only reason Harbaugh decided to come back to college was because the opportunity at Michigan opened up. But he never would have left the NFL otherwise, and even after his firing, teams would be lining up to hire him.
Miles being at Michigan would mean the opportunity would not be open. So Harbaugh, in all likelihood, would do exactly what his family’s wish was and stay in the Bay Area.
He would become the head coach of the Oakland Raiders.
Don’t get me wrong, as a college football fan I love the fact that Harbaugh is back in college, but Michigan is the only college that he would have taken a chance on unless he won a Super Bowl and wanted to go back to win a college championship.
That means Raider Nation at this point would be going insane about the magic Harbaugh could work with Derek Carr, and Michigan would be enjoying the success of a solid career by Les Miles. But the match made in heaven between Harbaugh and the Wolverines would never have happened.
Now, we get to our final page in this piece: what would have happened to Alabama? Well, we had to do it here, because Miles’s hire at Michigan would have a huge impact on the Tide. Let’s get to it now.
Next: Brady Hoke Would be at Alabam
Nov 8, 2014; Evanston, IL, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Brady Hoke in the first half against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
The Alabama Crimson Tide would be under the leadership of Brady Hoke and likely still in turmoil
Here me out. Nick Saban is still at LSU. As a result, Mike Shula is still fired after the 2006 season, and Alabama hires Bobby Petrino and sees lots of success.
Then, after the 2007 season, Miles goes home and is hired as head coach of Michigan. Fast-forward to 2011. Brady Hoke would not be hired at Michigan because Miles would still be there and be very successful. Because of that, he would have built up a profile at San Diego State and likely would have had another successful season.
At the same time, Alabama would have fired Petrino that spring for doing something as stupid as what he did at Arkansas the next year anyway. Then, the Tide would have desperately hired an assistant in the spring of 2011 the way Arkansas did in 2012, and that assistant along with all the turmoil would have caused a terrible 2011 season.
Then comes the end of that season, Alabama is in a coaching search, and Hoke has had two very successful seasons at San Diego State, potentially a 10 or 11- win season in 2011. What happens?
Hoke is the hottest coaching candidate on the market, and Mal Moore gives him a call. He is on his way to Tuscaloosa.
And just like he did at Michigan, he likely has lots of success his first year at Alabama in 2012, meaning he gets an extension and puts together solid recruiting classes the way he did at Michigan.
But his trajectory would likely be exactly the same as it was at Michigan. He would have regressed in 2013 and 2014, and he would now be on the hot seat. The Petrino scandal and hot seat that Hoke is on would cause Bama fans to begin to think their program is cursed.
And they would still not be able to bury the hat.
So, essentially, if you are a Tide fan, thank Heavens you were able to bring in Saban when you did. Otherwise, you’d be stuck in mediocrity with Brady Hoke. And yes, that is the final conclusion we reached as to what would happen had Saban never left LSU.
Next: What if Steve Spurrier Never Left the Florida Gators?
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