SEC Predictions: Picks against the spread for Week 7
Oct 10, 2015; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi Rebels wide receiver Laquon Treadwell (1) carries the ball against New Mexico State Aggies defensive back Lewis Hill (29) during the game at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
- Date: Saturday October 17, 2015
- Time: 12PM Eastern
- Location: Memphis, TN
- TV Channel: ABC/ESPN 2
- Spread: Ole Miss -10.5
- Over/Under Total: 64.5
There may not be a better trap game scenario in the nation than this week’s Ole Miss-Memphis matchup at the Liberty Bowl. Memphis is about 80 miles from Oxford, and there will be many Ole Miss fans in the stands for the non-conference road game, so it’s not like the Tigers will have a huge home field advantage, but the location of the game itself should be the least of the Rebels’ worries Saturday.
Memphis is a program on the rise and head coach Justin Fuente is one of the hottest names in the business. The Tigers are 5-0 this season, have won 12 games in a row dating back to year, and are also led on offense by 6-foot-7, 245-pound junior quarterback Paxton Lynch, who is an early candidate to be among the top QBs selected in next year’s NFL Draft.
Lynch has completed 103 of 146 pass attempts for 1,535 yards and ten touchdowns without an interception this season, and has helped Memphis rack up an average of 47.8 points and 438.4 yards of total offense so far (both of which are slightly better than the explosive Ole Miss offense, which has scored 46.8 points and piled up 527.8 yards on average). Furthermore, Memphis is coming off a bye week, which means they’ve had seven extra days to prepare, and beating Rebels would be a big step towards a New Year’s Six bowl game.
On the other hand, the game itself doesn’t mean nearly as much to Ole Miss, who could be looking ahead to the final six weeks of the season in which they play five very important games against SEC West rivals. Finally, the Rebels have been bitten by the injury bug and will be without starting defensive back Tony Conner and linebacker C.J. Johnson while star left tackle Laremy Tunsil will sit out for the final game of his NCAA-related suspension.
Ole Miss is the more talented team, and if the Rebels play like they did against New Mexico State last week or against Alabama a few weeks ago, they should win easily. But if they look ahead and don’t take Memphis seriously, they can fall in into the trap. Expect a close game early, but for the Rebels to win by two scores on a late TD.
Next: Alabama at Texas A&M