College Football Odds: SEC Week 8 picks against the spread
Oct 15, 2015; Lexington, KY, USA; Auburn Tigers running back Peyton Barber (25) runs the ball against the Kentucky Wildcats in the second half at Commonwealth Stadium. Auburn defeated Kentucky 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports
- Date: Saturday October 24, 2015
- Time: 12PM Eastern
- Location: Fayetteville, AR
- TV Channel: SEC Network
- Spread: Arkansas -6
- Over/Under Total: 51
Arguably the two most disappointing teams in the SEC through the first half of the season, Auburn and Arkansas meet in Fayetteville Saturday for a late morning kickoff that doesn’t have the same level of conference and division title implications many expected at the beginning of the season. However, the game is still pivotal for both programs.
Arkansas has the home field advantage and is also the favorite with the spread creeping higher over the course of the week. The Razorbacks have had two full weeks to prepare for the must-win matchup after losing a hard-fought 27-14 decision to Alabama Oct. 10 where the Hogs managed only 220 yards of total offense – including a measly 44 on the ground – and nine first downs.
Running back Alex Collins was completely bottled up and gained just 26 rushing yards on 12 carries – his worst performance of the season and the first time the junior has been held out of the end zone this season.
Of course, the Auburn rush defense is nothing compared to Alabama’s. Though they held Kentucky to 138 yards on the ground last week (60 of which came on one run by Boom Williams) in a 30-27 victory in Lexington, the Tigers have allowed 197.7 rushing yards per game this season.
Only South Carolina has been worse against the run in the SEC. Auburn also struggles defending the pass – as shown by the 359 passing yards they allowed to the Wildcats the last time out. In fact, by allowing an average of 426 total yards per game this season, Auburn has the worst defense in the SEC statistically speaking.
Still, Auburn is trending in the right direction overall. The Tigers have found a quarterback in Sean White, who is far from spectacular, but has completed 66.2 percent of his passes with only one interception across three starts. Plus, Peyton Barber (650 rushing yards, 4.8 yards per carry, 8 TD) is quietly having a great season as the primary ball carrier.
Head coach Gus Malzahn will be content to run the ball with Barber, and for Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema to run the clock and shorten the game. Expect a one-possession conteste in the fourth quarter – and for Auburn to make a late play to win it.
Next: Tennessee at Alabama