Six Group of Five squads and FCS Illinois State defeated Power Five teams in Week 2. Who might pull off an upset of a powerhouse in Week 3?
Last week was supposed to be a mellow weekend, with none of the AP Top 25 teams playing one another and a lot of what looked like paycheck games on the schedule. Then they kicked off on Saturday, and everything devolved into mayhem. After the dust settled, upset after upset had shaken up the college football landscape:
- Boise State, Central Michigan, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Ohio, and San Diego State all knocked off Power Five opponents, as we saw more hopefuls emerge in the race for the Access Bowl bid.
- Illinois State kicked a game-winning field goal to send Northwestern to 0-2 on the year, confirming suspicions that the Redbirds could be a national contender at the FCS level this season.
- Georgia nearly fell to Nicholls State, an FCS team that was on nobody’s radar coming into the season. The Bulldogs prevailed 26-24, but dropped seven spots in the AP Poll after struggling to defeat the Colonels.
- Troy did its damnedest to make top-five Clemson look like a mediocre vintage of itself, losing by six on the road against the defending national runner-up. The Tigers fell three spots in the AP Poll as a result.
- Grambling State concluded the night by giving Arizona a scare in the desert. The Tigers took a 21-3 lead into halftime against the Wildcats, but the hosts turned things around in the second half to run away with the win.
The lesson to take away is that every week can yield surprising results, and the craziest conclusions often occur when and where you least suspect them.
So let’s look forward to the upcoming slate of games in Week 3 and break down which games provide the greatest upset potential and/or the biggest potential impact should an upset occur. You can also find a full schedule of Group of Five vs. Power Five matchups and a separate chart of FCS vs. Power Five contests at the end of this article. (All kickoff times listed are Eastern.)
Next: New Mexico at Rutgers
New Mexico Lobos at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Saturday/12:00 pm)
Rutgers looked shaky in the early going against FCS Howard last week, and though they lost by one to New Mexico State in the Rio Grande Rivalry last weekend New Mexico remains a solid Mountain West team. Watch out for Lobos running back Teriyon Gipson, the leader of a backfield that is currently ranked seventh in the FBS in rushing offense.
The Scarlet Knights are ranked 49th nationally in rushing defense, though they’ve yet to face a team as run-oriented as New Mexico. If Chris Ash’s team gets off to a slow start at home on Saturday, they could find themselves falling to their mid-major opponent to fall to 1-2 on the season.
Next: Kansas at Memphis
Kansas Jayhawks at Memphis Tigers (Saturday/12:00 pm)
Last season Memphis annihilated Kansas 55-23, and after the Jayhawks fell last weekend to Ohio we are likely to see more of the same in 2016 from the matchup between these two schools. As such it might be hard to call this a true upset, though a win over any Power Five team provides a boost for mid-majors.
The Tigers offense isn’t quite as prolific as it was when Paxton Lynch was leading the show under center last year, but Memphis fields a strong defense that has held its first two opponents to 253 yards and 17 points per game. Despite losing head coach Justin Fuente to Virginia Tech, Memphis should get another win over Kansas.
Next: South Florida at Syracuse
South Florida Bulls at Syracuse Orangemen (Saturday/3:30 pm)
South Florida entered 2016 as a favorite in the AAC East, and after blowing out FCS Towson and Northern Illinois in their first two games the Bulls now get the chance to take down an ACC opponent. Syracuse had no problem taking care of business against FCS Colgate in its opener, but the Orangemen are coming into the USF matchup after a demoralizing loss to Louisville last week.
Eric Dungey has been great at QB for Syracuse, but he faces a challenge against USF’s top-20 pass efficiency defense. If the Bulls can disrupt Dungey’s rhythm early, we could see South Florida run away with this showdown between former Big East rivals.
Next: Western Michigan at Illinois
Western Michigan Broncos at Illinois Fighting Illini (Saturday/4:00 pm)
The Broncos can already claim one victory over Big Ten competition after taking down Northwestern in the season opener, and now they get the chance to go 2-0 against the league when they head to Champaign to face Illinois. Western Michigan has outscored opponents 92-42 in their first two games, and rather than depending on quarterback Zach Terrell the Broncos are finding balance from a strong running game.
The Fighting Illini were routed by North Carolina last week, and Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt is throwing for fewer than 200 yards per game. WMU is the favorite in the MAC West and could stay on track for an Access Bowl bid with another Power Five statement win.
Next: East Carolina at South Carolina
East Carolina Pirates at South Carolina Gamecocks (Saturday/4:00 pm)
Like Western Michigan, the Pirates have already knocked off one Power Five school after taking down NC State at home last week. The win was East Carolina’s sixth straight against ACC competition, and now they’ll try to add an SEC takedown to their season resume when they head to Columbia to take on South Carolina.
The Gamecocks barely beat Vanderbilt in their conference opener, and suffered their first loss to Mississippi State last weekend in a game that was never really close. Two years ago ECU lost 33-23 at South Carolina, and this could be their best chance to exact revenge for that defeat.
Next: Texas State at Arkansas
Texas State Bobcats at Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday/7:30 pm)
Okay, so this is probably the least likely of the upset bids on this week’s list. But if Texas State, a dark-horse candidate in a wide-open Sun Belt race this season, could knock off an Arkansas team that toppled TCU last weekend it would reverberate through the polls.
While everyone is rightly gushing over the Razorbacks’ overtime victory over the Horned Frogs, it is important to remember that this is the same team that needed a late touchdown just to beat Louisiana Tech by one in its season opener.
Bret Bielema’s team is ranked in the bottom third of the FBS in both passing and rushing offense, and could be ripe for a letdown after winning such an emotional game in Week 2.
Next: North Dakota State at Iowa
North Dakota State at Iowa Hawkeyes (Saturday/12:00 pm)
Five-time defending FCS national champion North Dakota State heads to Iowa on Saturday, hoping to extend its winning streak against Power Five teams to five game in a streak that dates back to 2010.
The Hawkeyes made light work of Iowa State last weekend, knocking off the Cyclones 42-3. But the Bison, regardless of their FCS designation, are a far better team than anybody Iowa has yet played this year. If the Hawkeyes hope to remain relevant in the Big Ten this year after winning the West Division in 2015, they have to avoid the upset against the strongest college team outside the FBS.
Next: Full Schedule of G5/P5 and FCS/P5 Games
Group of Five vs. Power Five Games in Week 3
- Baylor @ Rice (Friday/8:00 pm)
- Arizona State @ UTSA (Friday/9:30 pm)
- Ohio @ Tennessee (Saturday/12:00 pm)
- New Mexico @ Rutgers (Saturday/12:00 pm)
- Temple @ Penn State (Saturday/12:00 pm)
- Kansas @ Memphis (Saturday/12:00 pm)
- Georgia State @ Wisconsin (Saturday/12:00 pm)
- Miami/FL @ Appalachian State (Saturday/12:00 pm)
- Virginia @ UConn (Saturday/1:30 pm)
- Idaho @ Washington State (Saturday/2:00 pm)
- Florida Atlantic @ Kansas State (Saturday/2:30 pm)
- South Florida @ Syracuse (Saturday/3:30 pm)
- Western Michigan @ Illinois (Saturday/4:00 pm)
- New Mexico State @ Kentucky (Saturday/4:00 pm)
- East Carolina @ South Carolina (Saturday/4:00 pm)
- Old Dominion @ NC State (Saturday/6:00 pm)
- Maryland @ UCF (Saturday/7:00 pm)
- Louisiana Tech @ Texas Tech (Saturday/7:00 pm)
- Texas State @ Arkansas (Saturday/7:30 pm)
- North Texas @ Florida (Saturday/7:30 pm)
- Utah @ San Jose State (Saturday/10:30 pm)
- Hawaii @ Arizona (Saturday/10:45 pm)
FCS vs. Power Five Games in Week 3
- South Carolina State @ Clemson (Saturday/12:00 pm)
- North Dakota State @ Iowa (Saturday/12:00 pm)
- James Madison @ North Carolina (Saturday/3:30 pm)
- Idaho State @ Oregon State (Saturday/5:00 pm)
- Delaware @ Wake Forest (Saturday/6:30 pm)
- Portland State @ Washington (Saturday/8:00 pm)