After a five-year run by North Dakota State, there will be a new FCS champion this year. Here are five reasons to watch the national championship on Jan. 7.
On January 7, Youngstown State and James Madison will meet in Frisco, Texas for the 39th annual FCS national championship game. Borne out of the 1978 partition of Division I football into what were then deemed I-A and I-AA subdivisions, the FCS national championship has been a staple of the college football landscape for nearly four decades.
One of the two teams is a 1990s powerhouse with multiple national titles that has surged back onto the national scene after a decade of insignificance. The other is also a former national champion that is hoping to recapture the magic that brought the school its only football title a dozen years ago.
We will see a new champion for the first time in five years, after North Dakota State’s long run finally came to an end. We’ll discuss that more along with four other stories, so click ahead to learn more about the five biggest storylines to watch for in this year’s FCS national championship game.
1. Neither James Madison Nor Youngstown State is Supposed to Be Here
North Dakota State was the top seed in the 2016 FCS playoffs. Eastern Washington was the second seed behind the Bison. The two teams have split the past six FCS national championships, yet both will be sitting at home on January 7 watching the game on television (ESPN2, 12:00 pm Eastern) instead of playing at Toyota Stadium this year.
The Bison were the first to fall on Friday, Dec. 16, as James Madison came to Fargo and pounded the five-time defending national champs on their home turf. The Dukes were led by senior running back Khalid Abdullah’s 232 all-purpose yards as they pushed around NDSU all day. James Madison scored first and took a 17-7 lead into the locker room at halftime. While North Dakota State scored 17 unanswered points to tie things up in the third quarter, the Dukes held the Bison more than 100 yards below their season average in rushing and racked up nearly 450 yards to upset the top seed 27-17.
The following day, Youngstown State continued its resurgence under former Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini. The Penguins made the most of its first trip to the FCS playoffs since 2006 with a last-second win on the red turf of Eastern Washington. Down 38-34 with less than five minutes remaining, the Penguins killed all but one second from the clock on its game-winning drive to win 40-38. The winning score came on a one-handed catch by redshirt freshman tight end Kevin Rader:
Catch of the Year!!
— NCAA FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) December 18, 2016
Youngstown State's Kevin Rader sends the Penguins to Frisco with an AMAZING snag! #FCSPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/JhH8A2QNsj
To be fair, James Madison was the fourth seed in the tournament. The two-time defending Colonial Athletic Association champions won their first two games in the FCS playoffs by a combined score of 120-29. Their win over North Dakota State was still surprising, though far less of a shocker than Youngstown State’s takedown of the Eagles. The unseeded Penguins took down Samford, Jacksonville State, and Wofford before the upset over EWU.
The last unseeded team to reach the national championship game was Sam Houston State in 2012. Even though they were unseeded, though, the Bearkats still received an opening-round bye in the bracket. Since the expansion of the FCS playoffs to five rounds of play, no team has won four games to even reach the finals. If Youngstown State wins the title this year, they will become the first team to win five playoff games to take the crown.
2. Touchdown Aside, Youngstown State Got Here by Running the Ball
Yes, the pass from Hunter Wells to Kevin Rader has been a highlight-loop staple since the play won Youngstown a spot in the FCS championship on Saturday night. Wells has been stellar since coming into the starting lineup for the last two games of the regular season and through the playoffs. But the Penguins got to the title game on the strength of its running game.
Youngstown State enters the title game ranked seventh in the FCS in rushing, as the Penguins average more than 250 yards per outing. Two senior running backs, Jody Webb and Martin Ruiz, have each topped 1100 rushing yards so far this season. Including the playoffs, the Penguins are fifth in total rushing yards and sixth in rushing touchdowns.
They did it by continually pounding the ball on the ground. Thought they rated highly in counting categories, Youngstown State was ranked 18th in yards per carry. While that is still impressive in its own right, the Penguins are dependent on volume to rack up their yardage totals. As a result YSU also ranks third nationally at the FCS level in time of possession. The combination of steady gains and plenty of opportunities has made Youngstown State’s backfield the backbone of its return to the national title game.
3. James Madison Has One of the Most Balanced Offenses in the Nation
While Youngstown State was stellar at running the ball, James Madison was even better in 2016. The Dukes carried for 27 more yards per game than the Penguins to finish fourth in FCS in rushing average. Khalid Abdullah has run for over 1700 yards and is just 92 yards away from taking over the lead in individual rushing yards on the season. Three others have run for at least 500 yards this season. No team had more rushing touchdowns than the 48 piled up so far by the Dukes.
One of the three behind Abdullah to carry for at least 500 yards is quarterback Bryan Schor, who has also thrown for nearly 2900 yards this year. The junior has been the most efficient quarterback at the FCS level and ranked second among all Division I players behind only Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield. James Madison’s passing game was ranked eighth in touchdowns through the air thanks to the experienced run/pass threat they have leading the offense.
The ability to threaten teams in so many different ways on offense meant that only Sam Houston State averaged more points per game than the Dukes. They are also one of just five teams at the FCS level to average less than one turnover per game. Not only do they beat up on opposing defenses, but James Madison is also great about not beating itself when it has the ball.
4. Youngstown State’s Defense is Stingy with Points
Youngstown State’s run-based possession offense means that opponents get fewer chances with the football. When they do go on defense, the Penguins have been effective at keeping opponents out of the endzone. Ranked ninth in the FCS in scoring defense, Bo Pelini’s defense allows just 19.4 points per game. Six times this season the Penguins have held opponents to 14 points or less on the scoreboard.
The defense’s dominance starts with a disruptive front seven. Senior defensive end Derek Rivers is second in the country at the FCS level with 13.0 sacks and tied for 15th with 17.5 tackles for loss. Fellow senior lineman Avery Ross, a former Cornhusker who finished his eligibility with the Penguins, has 9.5 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss off the other edge. The two were the bookends of a unit that averaged more than three sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss each game.
Equally solid at stuffing the run and pressuring the passer, the Penguins were in the top 25 in rushing defense while finishing ninth in sacks per game. Pelini’s crew recovered 11 fumbles and added a dozen interceptions throughout 2016. They will try to continue the pattern against a tough James Madison team that protects the ball better than most.
5. James Madison Also Boasts a Disruptive Defense
Though James Madison allows nearly a field goal more per game than their opponent in the FCS national championship game, they still field one of the most fearsome defenses in the country. The Dukes are not quite as good against the run as Youngstown State, but they are far superior at stopping the pass. That will mean less against the Penguins given their propensity to run the ball, but will still be critical to watch when YSU is forced into passing downs.
James Madison is tied for first nationally with 20 interceptions, a big reason why they ranked in the top ten in the FCS in turnover margin. Senior defensive back Raven Greene led the way with a six-pack of picks, including one returned for a touchdown in the 84-7 win over Rhode Island. Four times this year the Dukes held an opponent to a single touchdown, including in their 65-7 quarterfinal win over Sam Houston State.
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The key will come down to James Madison’s front seven as they try to stop Webb, Ruiz, and the rest of the multifaceted Penguins rushing attack. The Dukes were ranked 119th out of 122 FCS teams in tackles for loss, and while they held teams to an average of just 138 rushing yards per game they have a hard time getting leverage at the line of scrimmage.
Be sure to watch this and all the other interesting battles we’ve discussed when James Madison and Youngstown State meet on January 7.