Evaluating the Top 10 Groups of FBS Returning Starters in 2017

Full List of FBS Teams and Methodology

The calculations used to valuate the returning starters for each team is relatively simple. It all starts with Phil Steele’s annual list of returning starters. The number of returning starters is calculated by adding together the numbers for offense and defense and adding an additional half-point for returning quarterbacks.

That number is then manipulated further by multiplying against two percentages. The first is the five-year recruiting average that is calculated by Bill Connelly at SB Nation. (Any number of averages would work in this situation; Connelly’s is convenient in that it provides a percentage that can immediately be used for normalizing the relative talent on each roster.) The final number in the mix is the winning percentage of each team from 2016. This separates two teams with a similar number of returning starters who have had varying levels of success together on the field.

Here is the full list of all 129 full FBS members and the assessed quality of each team’s returning starters.

Here are a few more general thoughts about the teams below the top 10:

• Syracuse returns 20 of their 22 starters from 2016, including all 11 starters on defense. No team returns more of its starters from last year than the Orange. But Dino Babers’ team ranks just 61st overall in terms of the quality of its returning starters, thanks both to low recruiting levels and the fact that they are coming off a 4-8 season.
• Lane Kiffin will have plenty of experienced talent on his roster for his first season as the head coach at Florida Atlantic. Of course, he arrives at a C-USA school whose cupboards aren’t bare but which lack the same level of talent he enjoyed as Alabama’s offensive coordinator. But if the nine offensive and nine defensive starters can make a next leap forward, his transition back into head coaching could prove smoother than expected.

Related Story: Top 5 Recruiting Classes by new FBS Coaching Staffs in 2017

• On the other end of the spectrum, Michigan might not have quite as hard a time replicating its 2016 success even though no team has fewer returning starters. The Wolverines lose 17 of their 22 starters from last season, but still rank 55th in the value of the few starters that do return. Jim Harbaugh will have his work cut out for him, but at least he still has quarterback Wilton Speight.
• Likewise, West Virginia could take a big step back in the Big 12 this year since they will bring back just eight returning starters. Among the most significant losses for the Mountaineers are starting quarterback Skyler Howard and eight of the team’s 11 starters on defense. Dana Holgorsen could have a long season ahead in Morgantown.
• No team has a greater disparity between the number of returnees on its respective units than defending Pac-12 South champion Colorado. The Buffaloes return nine starters on offense. While they lose starting quarterback Sefo Liufau, they do get back Steven Montez after he gained starting experience in Liufau’s absence. The defense, however, returns just three players and could be the reason why the Colorado will have a hard time repeating.