How does Penn State football’s Saquon Barkley compare to recent first-round running back selections?
Saquon Barkley has been an absolute force of nature since arriving at State College in 2015.
As a true freshman, Barkley set the Penn State rookie rushing record (1,076 yards on 182 carries) and even won the Big Ten Rookie of the Year.
In his sophomore season Saquon was even better, providing 1,989 yards of total offense (1,496 yards rushing and 402 yards receiving) and 18 touchdowns for the Lions in 2016. He was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and the Big Ten Running Back of the Year; not bad for the 11th-ranked running back in the 2015 recruiting class.
Many national pundits are tabbing 2017 as the year Saquon Barkley becomes a superstar. His name has graced numerous breakout player lists, a slew of Heisman watch lists, and is even an early highlight of many 2018 mock drafts. While Barkley could have a down season, or suffer an injury that impedes his apparent success, it seems more likely that Saquon Barkley will be a first round pick in the forthcoming NFL draft.
Since 2012, there have been eight running backs taken in the first round of the NFL draft, three in 2012, two in 2015, one in 2016 and two in 2017. Even though the running back position has been devalued by many NFL talent evaluates, there is still incredible talent to be found in the first round. While it’s impossible to predict exactly how Barkley’s pro career will turn out, we can see how he compares to other recent first round picks to further evaluate his draft stock and pro potential.
When evaluating the combine numbers of the running backs drafted in the first round since 2012 it’s easy to diagnose what team’s are looking for in a lead back.
After compiling the stats from each player’s ESPN profile, it’s easy to notice some trends across the board.
4. Weight
When evaluating the combine measurements of the running backs taken in the first round over the last five seasons, it becomes apparent that every back weighs at least 200 pounds. While the skill sets of these players vary greatly it would appear that teams are less inclined to spend a top pick on a player with a slight build.
The lightest RB taken in the first round since the 1990 draft was Warrick Dunn. At 5-foot-9 and 187 pounds, Dunn was able to play eight seasons, and 181 games, in the NFL, rushing for over 10,000 yards and making the Pro Bowl three times. While he never missed significant time due to injury it’s fair to assume that a light back who is taking on 240-pound linebackers every play will be more likely to get hurt than a 230-pound power back.
While weight can vary widely over any position group, based on the specific body types of its players it is worth noting that there doesn’t appear to be any prototypical playing style for a running back taken in the first round.
Players like Trent Richardson and Leonard Fournette built their reputations on their ability to take over a game by rushing between the tackles. While both players did have moderate success as receivers out of the backfield in college, teams viewed the duo as game changing power rushers and ultimately chose to make them top-five picks.
Other players, like Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliot and Doug Martin made their names by making plays in the open field. While not prototypical downhill runners, they were able to attack defenses in a variety of ways, like inside zones, outside sweep plays or on wheel routes out of the backfield.
Saquon Barkley weighs in at 223 pounds. This size will allow him to take the consistent beating a lead back will take at the next level. It also won’t pigeonhole him as far as scheme fits are concerned. In college Barkley has been able to run the ball inside, outside and catch the ball out of the back field and this trend should continue at the next level.
3. Height
It’s also apparent that every running back on our list falls within the heights of 5-foot-9 and 6-foot-1. There has not been a running back drafted in the first round who was shorter than 5-foot-9 since 5-foot-7 Steve Broussard was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons in 1990 and rushed for 2,625 yards over eight seasons in the NFL.
While diminutive running backs like Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren Sproles have had incredible success in the NFL regardless of their height, there is a fear that smaller players will be less durable, and a liability when pass blocking. If a team is going to invest such a high resource in a running back, they probably want to ensure that the player will be on the field consistently as an every down back, and a lack of pass blocking and consistent injury will prevent that.
Similarly, none of the running backs highlighted are taller than 6-foot-1. While it’s easier to find running backs drafted in the first round who are taller than that, they are still a rare commodity. Of the 77 running backs drafted in the first round since 1990 only six have been taller than 6-foot-1, with the most recent being 6-foot-2 Steven Jackson, a three-time Pro Bowler who has rushed for 11,438 yards over his 11 year NFL career.
Taller running backs like Jackson, Eddie George and more recently Derrick Henry have all found success in the league, but historically, taller players are typically viewed as one dimensional power backs. While taller backs should be able to hold up in pass protection and be effective in the power running game, they are often critiqued for having tight hips, which limits fluidity and burst on outside running plays, and could impede their abilities to contribute in the receiving game.
With dozens of big backs coming out in the draft every year, teams are more inclined to select a rotational player later in the draft to complement their lead back, instead of committing a first round pick to a player with less complete games, especially in the age of the spread offense.
Related Story: Michigan Football: 3 reasons why Jim Harbaugh owns college football
Barkley is currently listed at 5-foot-11. This size should allow him to excel in all facets of the pro game. He’s big enough to run between the tackles, and should retain the elusiveness to make plays in the open field. With his size, Barkley will also be able to adequately perform as a pass protector on passing plays.
While participating at Penn State’s ‘Max-Out’ Week Barkley squatted 495 pounds seven times, and power-cleaned 390 pounds. Having functional strength and a powerful core will be essential when running between the tackles, and holding down pass protection.
Barkley has the ideal height and strength to succeed at the next level.
2. Speed
Only .06 seconds separate the 40-yard dash times of the running backs taken in the first round of the NFL draft since 2012.
If a team is going to invest a top pick in a running back they want a player who is also a top athlete. While a good 40-yard dashes does not necessarily guarantee success in the NFL one thing you can’t teach is speed. Most players can get better at pass protection, blitz pickup or catching the ball, but if they run a 4.70 40-yard dash there is little that can be done to make them faster.
Of the 25 fastest players in NFL combine history (before 2017), only three are running backs. The three, Keith Marshall, Dri Archer and Chris Johnson, have had starkly different careers.
Marshall, drafted in 2016 by the Washington Redskins in the 7th round, spent his entire rookie season on IR after injuring his elbow in the preseason.
Related Story: Penn State Football: Is Trace McSorley holding Nittany Lions back?
Archer was drafted in the third round by the Pittsburgh Steelers but never really stuck with the team. After spending the first two seasons of his NFL career playing predominantly special teams he was ultimately waived. After bouncing around the NFL for the 2016 season he is currently out of the league.
Chris Johnson, the 5-foot-11, 203-pound running back from East Carolina, had by far the best career of the group, amassing 11,749 total yards (9,537 yards rushing and 2,212 yards receiving) and three Pro Bowl nods in nine seasons. Johnson rushed for over 1,000 yards in six consecutive seasons with the Tennessee Titans, including his 2,006 yard 2009 season, before he began to decline. Johnson only rushed for 1,572 yards over his last three seasons in the NFL and is currently a free agent.
If Saquon Barkley is in fact a first round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, he will be an outlier among recent top backs. Barkley ran a 4.33 40-yard dash while working out at Penn State during the 2017 offseason.
Running a 4.33 at 223 pounds is almost unheard of, and could very well make Barkley one of the best athletes at the 2018 NFL Draft and a surefire first round talent, especially with hops like this:
This kid is going to be a star.
1. Saquon’s fit
After evaluating his measurables in relation to other top running backs, it’s apparent that Saquon Barkley is a special talent.
Listed at 5-foot-11 and 223 pounds, Barkley has the ideal build to be a lead back in the NFL, with breakaway speed that could make him an absolutely electric home run hitter for years to come.
On this play against Iowa, Barkley took a simple read-option zone run from an unbalanced trips formation and turned it into a 57-yard touchdown. After eluding the first tackler, Saquon shifted into top gear and sped down the field, scoring the touchdown while being tackled for the last four yards.
In addition to his speed and athletic prowess, Barkley also has great ball carrier vision. In his 79-yard touchdown run in the 2016 Rose Bowl, Barkley attempted to run an inside zone, but when no hole appeared he instead bounced the play outside the tackles. After making his way into the open field, Barkley eluded no less than seven would-be tacklers to make his way into the end zone.
On this final play we see Saquon Barkley run a simple iso play out of the shotgun. After taking the ball he powers through his hole and has the vision and foresight to cutback from a would be tackler and sprint into the end zone untouched.
Simply put Saquon Barkley has a skillset that will absolutely thrive in the NFL.
Barkley’s combination of speed and strength, not to mention his A+ character and his work ethic, is unparalleled in relation to other recent top running backs and teams will be lining up to select Barkley in the the forthcoming NFL draft.
While Barkley could thrive in basically any NFL scheme he seems destined to be the focal point of a West Coast Offense. Teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, the New York Giants and the Kansas City Chiefs could all benefit greatly from a shifty feature back like Saquon who can run out of the shotgun, contribute as a pass blocker and catch the ball out of the backfield from day one.
Related Story: NFL Mock Draft 2018: Way-too-early edition
If he remains healthy and continues to be productive in his junior year in Happy Valley the future looks exorbitantly bright for Saquon Barkley.