SEC football will feature a season-long struggle with each team’s schedule playing heavily in determining the West division winner.
Alabama is the presumptive favorite because, well, Alabama has won the SEC the past three years. Auburn dethroned the Crimson Tide after a two-year run in 2013, so there are other team who could win the division, but until proven otherwise, Alabama is the favorite.
Ole Miss is not bowl eligible in 2017, but the other six SEC West teams are all in contention. In fact, Alabama’s rival Auburn has a lot of buzz. Of course, LSU has been a contender since Nick Saban built the team up back in the mid-2000s.
In 2013, the Iron Bowl essentially determined the SEC West. One single game between SEC West opponents can have that big of an impact. Going farther back, the 2011 regular season overtime contest between Alabama and LSU was such a close game, the two teams played again in the National Championship.
What are the games that will determine which team wins the division? Sure, it’s easy to pick out cross-division games that might affect the outcome. For instance, LSU traveling to The Swamp to face a talented Gators squad could impact the SEC West race. LSU also must travel to Neyland Stadium against Tennessee. Alabama plays Tennessee but in the comforting confines of Bryant Denny Stadium. However, what are the pure, strictly SEC West games that will have the biggest impact on who wins the division?
Let’s take a closer look.
5. Mississippi State at Texas A&M (Oct. 28)
It is easy to dismiss either one of these teams as a true contender. Neither of them is at the top of the pecking order preseason, but either of them is a threat to make noise in the division.
Miss State won nine games in 2015. Admittedly, Dak Prescott was a special quarterback, but Nick Fitzgerald, while he may not be as good a quarterback yet, is as good an athlete. Nine wins might be enough to win the SEC East but not likely to win the SEC West. With head coach Dan Mullen calling the shots, the Bulldogs are always a contender.
Meanwhile, Kevin Sumlin is on the hot seat, desperately needing a contending season. The Aggies have started strong and fizzled by the end of the season ever since Johnny Manziel left College Station.
In fact, the 2016 matchup was the beginning of the end in many ways for the Aggies. The team lost to Alabama but still held a 7-1 record going into Starkville. However, Texas A&M lost a back and forth tilt, 35-28. From there, the Aggies lost four of their last five games.
4. Auburn at Texas A&M (Nov. 4)
Auburn is obviously a preseason SEC West contender, while pundits are less sure of Texas A&M. However, it is worth noting Texas A&M beat Auburn last season on the road. Granted, it was early in the season and A&M has a trend of starting strong and fading late in the season. So, the timing of this year’s contest could be a factor.
In 2017, the game falls during a brutal stretch for the Aggies: the team plays Alabama at home, followed by a road contest against Florida, and then home matches against Mississippi State and Auburn.
Since 2012, the road team has won each year with Texas A&M wins in 2012, 2014 and 2016 and Auburn wins in 2013 and 2015. Obviously, if that trend continues, the outcome does not look good for the Aggies.
Trevor Knight was the key to the Aggies’ win last season, so it will be interesting to see who is the starter for A&M in this year’s game.
3. LSU at Alabama (Nov. 4)
The last time LSU beat Alabama was during the 2011 regular season, but the Tigers have given the Crimson Tide its share of challenges through the years. Last season’s 10-0 game wasn’t decided until the fourth quarter.
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In 2012, Alabama won on a screen pass to T.J. Yeldon for a 28-yard touchdown with less than a minute left in the game. Granted, Alabama traditionally plays better at Bryant Denny Stadium than Tiger Stadium, but it is worth noting the 2011 regular season loss came at Bryant Denny.
This will likely be another battle of stout defenses, with two of the best defensive coordinators in the country, Alabama’s Jeremy Pruitt and LSU’s Dave Arranda, calling the plays.
While both teams carry stability on the defensive side of the ball, both will have new offensive coordinators. LSU hired former Pitt OC Matt Canada. Head coach Ed Orgeron is hoping Canada will open up the offense, especially the passing game. Alabama hired Brian Daboll to replace Lane Kiffin. Some expect Daboll to move to a more run-oriented offense, but it seems the team has too much talent at wide receiver for that to be true.
Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how the offense looks under his direction.
2. Auburn at LSU (Oct. 14)
Among the SEC West teams likely to challenge Alabama, Auburn and LSU are the most likely.
Last season’s game between the two teams was one of the most contested SEC games of the season. LSU appeared to win the game when DJ Chark kept his feet inbounds at the back of the end zone on the last play of the game. However, upon further review, the game clock expired just prior to the snap, giving Auburn a 18-13 win.
For a team with championship hopes, it was a crushing defeat for LSU. For an Auburn team that began the season 1-2, the game helped steer the season back on course.
The home team has won the last four contests. In 2017, LSU hosts the game. The last time Auburn won in Baton Rouge was back in 1999.
The anticipated matchup is new Auburn offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey and the Auburn offense led by transfer quarterback Jarrett Stidham against the Dave Arranda-led defense.
1. Alabama at Auburn (Nov. 25)
The Iron Bowl is an intriguing game every single year simply because it is one of the greatest rivalries in college football. Throw in the fact that Alabama and Auburn are both preseason top-10 selections among multiple outlets and this season’s game is at Jordan-Hare and you have potentially the best SEC West game.
LSU and Auburn is intriguing for many of the same reasons as this game. Alabama and LSU is intriguing for the impressive defenses grinding it out. Alabama has a mobile quarterback with plenty of depth at running back. Auburn also has a mobile quarterback and a running back (Kamryn Pettway) who is difficult to bring down when healthy.
The last time Alabama lost to Auburn was in 2013 at Jordan Hare. Auburn had a mobile quarterback in Nick Marshall. Stidham probably isn’t the same athlete as Marshall, but he is a better passer.
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Both schools have new offensive coordinators. It remains to be seen how Alabama’s offense will change, but if Lindsey is given full autonomy, expect Auburn to throw the ball more than in previous seasons under head coach Guz Malzahn.