There hasn’t been much turnover in Power-5 college football conference champions. Which teams have the best to change that in 2017?
The Alabama Crimson Tide will enter the 2017 season as a national title favorite. It’s almost a forgone conclusion that they’ll win at least the SEC with ease. If chalk doesn’t hold (it never does), which Power 5 teams are most likely to play Cinderella?
Requirements to be eligible as a surprise contender were simple: the team can not have one a conference title in the past three seasons.
Big 10 – Wisconsin
2014 – Ohio State
2015 – Michigan State
2016 – Penn State
The variety of champions over the past three years limits the options in the Big 10. This is one of those “anybody can win” situations that could pave the way for some interesting contenders come November. Why not the Wisconsin Badgers?
Wisconsin returns one of their two starting quarterbacks from last season, Alex Hornibrook. He’ll have the job to himself after sharing snaps almost 50-50 with senior Bart Houston in 2016. He and Houston combined for just eight more passing attempts that rushes from workhorse running back Corey Clement. He has departed for the NFL. That leaves sophomore Bradrick Shaw and possibly freshman 4-star signee Jonathan Taylor with the rushing duties for the Badgers.
Wisconsin was second in the Big 10 and seventh in the nation in total defense in 2016. They’re going to miss T.J. Watt desperately, but they aren’t lacking in talent. They return their leading tackler T.J. Edwards as well as a handful of experienced linebackers.
The Badgers have proven they can put just about anyone in the backfield and pound the rock. That’s going to be their key to making a conference title run in 2017. Wisconsin won’t escape the Big 10 unscathed, but neither will Ohio State or Penn State. Luckily, the draw the Buckeyes and the Michigan Wolverines at home. Their toughest true road contest could be at Nebraska.
ACC – Virginia Tech
2014 – Florida State
2015 – Clemson
2016 – Clemson
Virginia Tech lacks something that the other schools on this list have: a proven quarterback. Junior Jerod Evans made the decision to enter the NFL draft early and went undrafted last year. It’s not unfathomable to think that true freshman Josh Jackson, a 3-star dual threat quarterback from Michigan, could win the starting job.
But offense is not how Virgina Tech snatches the ACC title away from powerhouses Florida State or Clemson. They’ll have to do that with their defense. The Hokies finished fourth in the ACC in total defense last season. They weren’t particularly dominant against either the run or the pass, but as a unit they were consistently above average in both aspects.
It was the red zone that proved to be their downfall. Tech allowed 34 red zone scores in 41 attempts. If they can crack that nut they’ll be in good shape to pick up a few more wins in 2017. They return their top three leading tacklers including ballhawk Andrew Motuapuaka. Defensive backs Greg Stroman (10 passes defended, 3 interceptions), Mook Reynolds (6 PD, 2 INT), and Adonis Alexander (7 PD, 2 INT) will all return as well.
Virginia Tech’s toughest game in 2017 comes at home against Clemson in September. The Tigers will still be good, but they have a lot of pieces to replace off their 2016 National Championship team. Getting them early in the season before they’re running on all cylinders could prove a boon to the Hokies. After Clemson, they have road contests against Boston College, Miami, Georgia Tech, and Virginia. It’s entirely possible they won’t play another ranked team all season until the conference title game. That bodes well for Tech.
Pac-12 – USC
2014 – Oregon
2015 – Stanford
2016 – Washington
This is the year the Trojans return! It’s almost impossible to shut out the deafening noise of the USC hype train rolling through the offseason. They are the de-facto Pac-12 champion pick in every preseason projection and water cooler debate, and for good reason. The Trojans enter 2017 with Heisman candidate quarterback Sam Darnold and a nine game winning streak.
Two of USC’s last four victories came against Pac-12 champion Washington and Big 10 champion Penn State. It’s hard not to believe that they’re prepared to take the next step in 2017 and win their conference.
Darnold won’t have to carry the offense alone. As for pass catches, he’ll have 4-star freshman receiver Joseph Lewis and returning junior Deontay Burnett. It was Burnett’s touchdown grab in the Rose Bowl that sealed the Trojan comeback.
On defense the Trojans return their leading edge rushers Rasheem Green and Porter Gustin who combined for 11.5 sacks. They’ll need them when they take on UCLA and fellow top draft prospect Josh Rosen on November 18. That game could very well determine who wins the Pac-12 South.
Big 12 – Oklahoma State
2014 – Baylor / TCU
2015 – Oklahoma
2016 – Oklahoma
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been one of the more successful under-the-radar college football teams of the last decade. Head Coach Mike Gundy has compiled a 68-23 record since 2010. He’s 2-5 against Bob Stoops during that stretch. Had he been able to solve Stoops, the Cowboys might have contended for a national title. With Stoops retired, the door is wide open in the Big 12 for the first time in what seems like ages.
Not only has the stage been set, the Cowboys are loaded with talent. They return senior quarterback Mason Rudolph, a 1,000 yard rusher in Justice Hill and a potential top round selection in the upcoming NFL draft at wide receiver, James Washington. According to a recent 2018 draft profile, it’s Washington’s ability to play the ball that makes him as good as he is.
"Washington’s best attribute is his ability to track the football. He quickly finds the ball and puts himself in position to make the catch. His body control also stands out and allows him to shift his frame to make some eye-popping plays."
The Cowboys were the No. 17 scoring offense in the country in 2016, posting just north of 38 points per game. That should put them firmly in the driver’s seat in a league predicated on amassing points. Oklahoma State’s defense isn’t anything to write home about, but they’ve been trending in the right direction over the past three years.
Related: Could Texas win the Big 12 conference in Herman’s first season?
Unless someone like Texas comes out of the weeds and turns some heads, Bedlam is once again going to decide the conference champion in the Big 12. Well, not technically. This is the first year since the Big 12 became a 10 team conference that a conference title game will be played. That could mean the Cowboys and the Sooners will play each other twice in 2017.
SEC – Auburn
2014 Champ – Alabama
2015 Champ – Alabama
2016 Champ – Alabama
The transfer market, which has become the college football equivalent of free agency, has played a significant role in the SEC in recent years. Texas A&M added Trevor Knight in 2016 and road him to a 6-0 start before his injury led to their demise. Could Auburn be in a similar situation? What if Jarrett Stidham can stay healthy and is as good as advertised?
Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson each surpassed 195 touches and 1,000 yards from scrimmage in 2016. Pettway averaged 5.9 yards per carry with seven scores to Johnson’s 4.9 yards per carry and 11 touchdowns. Auburn offense was straightforward. Hand the ball to one of the bruisers. That’s because their passing attempt was woeful at best. In comes Stidham.
A Baylor transfer, Stidham narrowed his options to Auburn and Texas A&M before committing to the Tigers. He brings just one season of experience, but it was a productive one. In his freshman season at Baylor Stidham threw for 1,265 yards and tossed 12 touchdowns. His completion percentage was a mind-boggling 68.8 percent and he only threw two interceptions.
Can anyone really beat Alabama?
There isn’t a defined formula to build a “Bama-killer”, but an elite quarterback is certainly one of the pieces. Here are the last quarterbacks to take down the Tide in order: Johnny Manziel, Trevor Knight, Nick Marshall, Cardale Jones, Chad Kelly, and Deshaun Watson. That’s three national title winners and another that took home the Heisman trophy.
Next: 5 reasons why Alabama will win the SEC again
That’s how Auburn gets it done and upends Alabama. Stidham might not win the title or a Heisman, but he’ll get pretty darn close if he can beat the Tide. Yes, that’s the biggest ‘if’ in college sports. But it’s going to happen sooner or later, Alabama will fall… eventually.