The 2017 Pac-12 Football season should be another interesting marathon to see which team prevails in the Pac-12 North with the schedule playing a pivotal role.
The North division has been dominated by Oregon and Stanford. In fact, since formally adding a championship game, the North representative has either been Oregon, Stanford or Washington. Stanford won three times, Oregon twice and Washington won last year.
Not surprisingly, Washington is the preseason favorite, but who are the teams seen as Washington’s biggest threat? Two of the three are: you guessed it, Oregon and Stanford. Washington State is another team that is a contender in the North.
Washington returns 13 starters from a 12-2 squad. Stanford has questions, particularly at quarterback with Keller Chryst returning from knee surgery, but David Shaw has posted double-digit win season five of the six years he has been Stanford’s head coach. With that track record, Stanford should be considered a contender until further notice.
Oregon is entering a new era with Willie Taggart at the helm, but Taggart inherits a team full of talent. In 2016 Washington State finished in second place in the North. The Cougars finished 7-2 in conference play with a high-octane offense returning most of the starters for the 2017 season.
Oregon State and California represent potential trap games for the top teams, although neither team is viewed as a serious contender for the division title. New California head coach Justin Wilcox might be able to turn the program around, but he will need time to recruit the right players.
Of course, cross-division games will impact who represents the North in the Pac-12 championship game. For instance, Stanford has to play USC on the road in the second week of the season. However, what are the pure, strictly Pac-12 North games that will play the biggest role in determining who wins the division?
Let’s take a closer look.
5. Washington State at Oregon (Oct. 7)
Washington State’s offense obliterated Oregon’s defense in the 2016 game. The Cougars won the game 51-33. The pass-heavy Cougars rushed for six touchdowns, a strategy that clearly took the Ducks off-guard.
However, in 2014 and 2015 Oregon and Washington State had close contests. In 2014, Oregon prevailed at Martin Stadium, 38-31. The Cougars earned the win in 2015 by a score of 45-38 in double overtime.
Based on the recent history in the series, both teams will be scoring 30 points or more.
One of the most interesting aspects of the 2017 matchup is to see how the new coaching staff make changes at Oregon. New Oregon Defensive Coordinator Jim Leavitt is a strong enough coach to change this game into a lower-scoring game, but both programs are built around frenetic offenses.
Washington State’s offense should have no problem putting points on the board and broadly speaking, the same is true for Oregon. However, the more intriguing matchup is the Washington State defense against the Oregon offense. Will the Ducks run the ball heavily between Royce Freeman and Tony Brooks-James dividing carries? Will Justin Herbert be given free rein to throw the ball?
4. Washington State at Washington (Nov. 25)
The Apple Cup hasn’t been highly competitive the past two years. The Huskies have won the last two contests by a combined 63 points. That is the equivalent of nine touchdowns, not good if you are a Cougars fan.
In fact, Washington head coach Chris Petersen has yet to lose to the Cougars (3-0). Meanwhile, Washington State head coach Mike Leach won his first Apple Cup 31-28 in 2012 in overtime but has lost the subsequent four contests.
The Apple Cup is one of the premiere rivalries in college football, so if the last two contests weren’t blowouts, this game would probably rank higher.
Washington State senior quarterback Luke Falk had a strong season in 2016, but he struggled mightily against Washington, possibly his worst game of the season. While he completed 66 percent of his passes and threw a touchdown, he threw a season-high three interceptions. He has undoubtedly went back and looked at the game tape to help him have a better 2017 season and to have a better 2017 Apple Cup performance.
The Cougars will need its defense to at least slow down Washington quarterback Jake Browning. Browning completed 72 percent of his passes, threw three touchdowns and had no interceptions in the 2016 win.
3. Oregon at Stanford (Oct. 14)
For a while, this game was the de-facto Pac-12 North championship game. Oregon won the contest in 2011 and 2014 and went on to win the Pac-12. Stanford won the contest in 2012 and 2013 and won the Pac-12. In 2015, Oregon beat Stanford, but Stanford won the division and the Pac-12 conference anyway.
The 2012, 2013 and 2015 games were close contests.
In 2012, Stanford’s defense held Oregon in check as the two teams battled to a 14-14 tie by the end of regulation. Oregon’s Alejandro Maldonado missed a 41-yard field goal attempt. On Stanford’s ensuing possession, Jordan Williamson hit a 37-yard field goal to give Stanford a 17-14 win.
In 2013, Oregon was averaging nearly 56 points a game before the Stanford defense once again held the Ducks in check. Yes, the final score appeared closer than things unfolded during the first three quarters. However, Oregon’s potent offense and a huge special teams play helped Oregon easily outplay Stanford in the fourth quarter and make the game interesting. In the end, Stanford held off Oregon, 26-20.
In 2015, Vernon Adams propelled the Oregon offense to 38 points and the Oregon defense tipped a pass on a two-point conversion attempt to give Oregon a 38-36 win.
All of this is to say: Oregon and Stanford have played some thrilling contests in recent years, several of them deciding the Pac-12 North winner. For the 2017 season, this single game probably won’t determine the Pac-12 North, but the outcome of this game could play a role.
2. Oregon at Washington (Nov. 4)
Prior to Washington’s victory in 2016, the Huskies hadn’t defeated the Ducks since 2003. This is a rivalry that has been one-sided. Oregon was 8-2 in games played in the 2000s. In the 1970s, Washington went 8-2 in the rivalry.
Washington obliterated Oregon in embarrassing fashion in 2016, 70-21. Washington quarterback Jake Browning passed for six touchdowns and rushed for two touchdowns.
Admittedly, Oregon is coming off a 4-8 season but is still viewed as a Pac-12 contender. The roster has plenty of talent and is rebuilding with new head coach Willie Taggart and new defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt.
Oregon will need a stronger defense to make this game a contest because allowing 70 points typically results in a loss. That said, Washington’s offense seemed to elicit its peak performance during the 2016 game against Oregon. Browning etched his name in the school record book with six passing touchdowns.
For Oregon to win, the team not only needs a better performance from its defense but also the offense. Remember: Oregon scored 38 points in 2015, Oregon’s most recent win.
1. Washington at Stanford (Nov. 10)
Unlike the other games on this list, this one will be on a Friday night, not Saturday.
Washington defeated Stanford 44-6 last season, which was a huge confidence boost for the team. Interestingly, the 2016 game was early in the season, but the 2017 game will be late in the season. Stanford was No. 7 at the time of the 2016 game, although Washington was a Pac-12 contender. The win solidified that status.
This season, Washington is the defending Pac-12 champ and Stanford has an outstanding track record under David Shaw and seen by many as Washington’s biggest threat in the Pac-12 North.
The 2012, 2013 and 2014 games between these two schools were close contests. In 2012, Washington’s defense stifled Stanford and received just enough offense to beat The Cardinal, 17-13.
The 2013 game featured a top-20 matchup that resulted in the favorite, Stanford, prevailing, 31-28. In 2014, Stanford won another defensive battle, 20-13.
Next: 5 reasons Washington won't repeat as Pac-12 champs
Stanford faces plenty of questions, especially on offense with quarterback Keller Chryst had offseason knee surgery and the team must replace Christian McCaffrey. Will Stanford be more settled in November this season in a way they weren’t last season when the two teams met in September?