BYU Football: 2017 season preview, predictions

BYU football enters its seventh season of independence facing a strong schedule. Is this the year the Cougars finally return to the national scene?

BYU decided to pull its football program out of the Mountain West after the 2010 season, hoping to become the Mormon equivalent of Notre Dame. Under Bronco Mendenhall, the team won at least eight games every year as an independent. While they have played harder schedules, the Cougars have failed to reach a major bowl game.

Mendenhall left to take the Virginia job last year, opening the door for BYU to hire Kalani Sitake. A former BYU fullback, Sitake became the first Tongan-born head coach in college football history with his hiring. Last year he took the led the Cougars to wins over Arizona, Michigan State, and Mississippi State. Their four losses came by a combined eight points to Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, and Boise State.

A few better turns of luck and BYU would have been undefeated. The 2017 squad will hope to build on the positive momentum of a five-game winning streak that ended the 2016 season. They face another tough schedule in the upcoming season. But with only four Power Five opponents, the schedule also lines up for a possible game-changing season in Provo on par with 1984.

Ten wins is well within reach for the Cougars in 2017, and they could challenge for a spot in one of the New Year’s Six bowl games if everything falls right. Which BYU players could lead the independent to a breakout season, and what Cougars games should you circle on your calendar in the upcoming year?

Offense

Oft-injured quarterback Taysom Hill has moved on to the NFL after five eventful years in Provo. The Cougars also lose tailback Jamaal Williams, a catalyst for the offense in 2016. In total, BYU loses over three-quarters of its offensive production from last season. Sitake brought in a slew of transfers on offense to stem the loss of productivity, and Tanner Mangum has plenty of experience at quarterback.

The offensive line features plenty of experience, with 85 starts among the unit. That should provide Mangum with plenty of time to work in the pocket of BYU’s pro-style spread. He will be throwing to a new receiving corps, as all three of the top Cougars receivers in 2016 were seniors who have since graduated. New talent will have to step up quickly in the passing game if BYU is going to make waves in 2017.

That said, everything lives and dies by the running game in the Cougars offense. Long gone are the days of players like Robbie Bosco, Steve Young, and Jim McMahon. That could change this season as Sitake and the offensive staff rely more on Mangum’s arm than they did on Hill’s legs. If a young group of receivers matures quickly, the ball could be flying through the Provo air much more than it has in recent seasons.

Who will step up in the backfield?

The passing attack will have to pick up some slack, because losing Jamaal Williams won’t be easy for BYU. Williams ranked fifth nationally in rushing yards per game in 2016. He finished the year with 1,375 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. Williams provided a one-two punch on the ground with Hill that will be hard to replicate, especially since Mangum does not possess nearly the same caliber of running ability that Hill brought to the table.

Related Story: BYU's Jamaal Williams is College Football's Most Overlooked Running Back

Thus it will fall even more on the shoulders of the current crop of running backs to maintain a rushing attack that averaged over 200 yards per game last year. Perhaps this is the occasion for Squally Canada to break out after a tumultuous start to his college career. He originally went to Washington State, but injuries forced him to take a redshirt season in 2015. Canada transferred the following year, sitting out 2015 before gaining 315 yards on 74 carries last season.

In addition to Canada, the Cougars also could get a spark from freshman Ula Tolutau. Tolutau was named Utah’s Mr. Football by the Deseret News in 2013 after rushing for nearly 2,500 yards and 31 touchdowns as a high school senior. Sophomore KJ Hall could also break out in 2017.

Defense

Despite playing a schedule that featured six Power Five opponents, BYU still owned one of the top defenses in the FBS in 2016. The Cougars ranked 14th in the country in points allowed, conceding fewer than 20 points per game last year. They ranked seventh overall in turnover margin, thanks to 31 turnovers generated by the defense.

But there was also a sense of imbalance to the BYU defense in 2016. The front seven held opponents to just 113 rushing yards per game, which put BYU ninth in the FBS in rushing defense. The secondary, on the other hand, was a boom-or-bust affair. Opponents had 21 passes intercepted (seven by linebackers), but they also gained yardage at will against BYU. The Cougars ranked 96th in passing yards allowed, 92nd in opponent yards per attempt, and 99th in opponent yards per completion.

Even then, BYU was great at keeping opponents out of the endzone. The Cougars ranked 10th in the country in red zone defense, holding opponents scoreless on one out of every four trips inside the 20. And while the passing game gave up a lot of yards, the BYU secondary coughed up only 17 passing touchdowns all season. If the Cougars can play at as high a level on defense this season, they could make major noise on a national scale.

Key transfers ready in the secondary

Perhaps the biggest loss for BYU following the 2016 season was defensive back Kai Nacua, who led the team with six interceptions last year. To stem the loss of talent in the secondary that also included seniors Michael Davis and Eric Takenaka, the Cougars will look to several players who were brought in last season as transfers.

One, Tanner Jacobson, transferred from Texas Tech and sat out the season due to NCAA rules. Now eligible to play for the Cougars this season, Jacobson showed promise this spring. He is currently in the hunt to lock down the starting free safety role this season.

The other, Isaiah Armstrong, made his way into six games last season for BYU at cornerback. The Riverside City College prospect was able to play immediately in 2016 as a junior college transfer. Armstrong snagged an interception against Massachusetts.

2017 Schedule

What’s in store for BYU in 2017?

Eight days after BYU defeated longtime rival Wyoming in the final edition of the Poinsettia Bowl, longtime Cougars head coach LaVell Edwards passed away at age 86 after complications from a broken hip. For the first time in over fifty years, Edwards won’t be in Provo when the Cougars begin a new football season.

As opposed to six Power Five teams on last year’s schedule, Sitake’s team only face four major-conference foes this season. The Cougars open September with FCS Portland State before three straight games against Power Five opponents. The neutral-site game against LSU in Houston offers a major statement opportunity. Utah and Wisconsin both come to Provo

If BYU can get through the first half of its schedule with no more than one loss, the road opens up dramatically on the back end of the season. The Cougars face no Power Five opponents in their final six games of the season. They also have an extra game in their regular season thanks to a trip  to play at Hawaii. If they get to 11 or 12 wins, the College Football Playoff selection committee could be faced with a quandary.

Next: Ranking the top 10 small school WRs of all time

Prediction: 10-3

Ultimately, the Cougars fate rests on whether or not Mangum can thrive in a full-time starting role. BYU should have the defense to compete against both Power Five and Group of Five competition. The offense, though, will need to rebrand itself from last year’s run-heavy outfit. This could lead to some growing pains in September, with losses against two of the three Power Five opponents. Expect the Cougars to begin putting things together in October, though they could lose to Boise State as well. 10-3 seems like a realistic ceiling for this year’s BYU roster.