Washington State football is one of the best teams in the Pac-12 North and last season was no fluke, and here’s why.
It is easy to forget Washington State finished second in the Pac-12 North in 2016. Washington State fans are quick to point out quarterback Luke Falk played at less than 100 percent in the Apple Cup loss in 2016. Yet, the Cougars lost by an overwhelming 45-17. Such a score seems to point to something larger than a banged-up quarterback.
Most pundits have the Cougars pegged for fourth or fifth in the Pac-12 overall (the North is stronger than the South division both historically and on paper for 2017). Washington and USC are the frontrunners, while Stanford, Oregon and Washington State are the prime challengers.
Simply based on last season’s results and the return of most of the starters from 2016, one could easily argue Washington State will finish 2017 as the third-best team in the Pac-12. Once again, Washington State’s 2016 season was no fluke.
There is reason to doubt Washington State. Mike Leach guided the program to its first bowl game in 10 years in 2013, only to regress to 3-9 the following season. The Cougars finished 2015 with a 9-4 record and 2016 with a 8-5 record, but both seasons were filled with blunders. In 2015, the team lost to Portland State. Last year, the team lost to Eastern Washington. That said, Washington State is 13-5 the last two seasons in the Pac-12 and finished second or third in the Pac-12 North.
Five things point to Washington State having another strong season in 2017. Not necessarily a Pac-12 champion season, but near the top.
Let’s take a closer look.
5. Schedule
Washington State doesn’t have the easiest schedule in the conference, but the Cougars have an easier slate than Stanford. The Cardinal must play USC on the road, Utah on the road and UCLA from the South division. Washington State has a tough slate from the South, but the team gets USC and Colorado at home and play Utah on the road.
USC was flawless at home last season, so getting to play the Trojans at home is a big strategic advantage. Also, the fact that Washington State, a team that has struggled mightily to start the season in recent years, starts the season with five straight home games is an advantage, too. Washington State also plays Stanford at home.
The Cougars do play Oregon on the road and close out the season with Utah and Washington on the road.
The team’s nonconference schedule is middle of the road; some Pac-12 teams have bigger challenges (USC, for instance) while other teams have easier slates.
4. Turnovers
One school of thought holds that turnovers are a chance event and a team has no control over turnovers. However, most coaches will tell you this is false. Coaches practice ball security and break down film with quarterbacks for a reason.
Good coaching can’t eliminate turnovers but limiting turnovers improves a team’s chances of winning a game. Top defensive coaches teach players techniques to strip the ball from offensive players to create turnovers.
Washington State head coach Mike Leach had a tough first season in Pullman, which is standard for a coach taking over a program.
However, it should be noted the team finished minus-nine in turnovers. The Cougars improved in turnovers in 2013 and went to a bowl game with minus-five turnovers. In 2014, the team regressed. With a minus-17 turnover, the Cougars never stood a chance.
Washington State got back on track in 2015 with a minus-one turnover margin, finishing 9-4. In 2016, the team finished with a positive-six margin. With an opportunistic defense and Luke Falk returning, the Cougars should keep the positive trend going.
3. Alex Grinch
This marks Alex Grinch’s third season in Pullman. The Cougars improved significantly in Grinch’s first season as defensive coordinator, going from allowing 38.6 points per game to allowing 27.7 points per game. Grinch helped the defense improve the 2015 total, going down from 27.7 to 26.4 points per game.
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Grinch brought in the aforementioned attitude of trying to create turnovers. With the Cougars returning most of the starters from last season, there is no reason to believe the defense cannot improve in 2017.
The Cougars return talented cornerbacks Marcellus Pippins and Darrien Moulton. Pippins had two interceptions last season, while Moulton led the defense with seven passes defensed.
The team also returns pass rusher Nnamdi Oguayo and defensive end Hercules Mata’afa. Mata’afe led the Cougars with 5 sacks and 13.5 tackles for a loss.
2. Offensive line and running back
Having a dynamic running game helped make Mike Leach’s “air raid” offense even more lethal in 2016. After averaging 80 yards rushing per game (which was a huge improvement from 2014’s 40 rushing yards per game average) in 2015, Washington State improved to rushing for 121 yards per game in 2016.
Part of the improvement can be attributed to depth in the backfield with James Williams receiving most of the carries, Jamal Morrow being the most talented pass catcher out of the backfield, and Gerard Wicks being more of a power back.
Leach isn’t known for having a bellcow running back in his offense. However, distributing carries between three backs helps keep things fresh on offense and Williams and Morrow offer as much value as receivers as they do running the ball.
The team also ran the ball more than in previous years because of the strength of the offensive line. Offensive guard Cody O’Connell is one of the most talented lineman in the Pac-12. Returning 2016 starters Cole Madison and Andrew Dillard add strength to the line at tackle.
1. Luke Falk
Mike Leach’s signature element is the passing game and the Cougars have a great option to throw the ball in Luke Falk. The talented quarterback earned second team All-Pac-12 honors last season after leading the conference with a 70 percent completion rate and the most passing yards (4,468) and completions (443).
Falk carried the Cougars last season, playing his best games in wins against Arizona State, Oregon State and Arizona. The wheels started to fall of a little with a low completion rate against Colorado and truly bad outings versus Washington and then Minnesota in the Holiday Bowl.
However, the numbers Falk produced in 2016 were no fluke. His 2016 numbers were almost identical to his numbers in 2015. There is reason to expect his numbers in 2017 will be similar. In 2015, Falk threw for 4,561 yards, while he threw for 4,468 in 2016. His completion percentage in 2015 was 69 percent, while his completion percentage in 2016 was 70 percent.
Next: NFL Mock Draft 2018: Way-too-early edition
Falk could have been a decent draft pick depending on his performance in private workouts and at the NFL Draft Combine. However, he has a chance to improve his draft stock with an even better senior season. He said the end of the 2016 season did sit well. Now he has a chance to correct the ending in 2017.