Iowa Football: Hawkeyes’ 2017 season preview and predictions

Iowa football is coming off an 8-5 season with a loss to Florida in the Outback Bowl, but can the Hawkeyes improve in 2017?

If you’re Kirk Ferentz, you have to feel as if there’s unfinished business following Iowa’s appearance in the 2015 Big Ten Championship Game. The Hawkeyes were a couple plays away from stealing the conference title from Michigan State, but instead it earned a trip to the Rose Bowl and was humiliated by Stanford.

Would things have been different if LJ Scott didn’t score that game-winning touchdown in the final minute and the Hawkeyes went to the College Football Playoff? It’s easy to look back and talk about the ‘what ifs’ and speculate, but you know the Hawkeyes are hungry after an 8-5 finish in 2016.

Although Ferentz has had much worse seasons, such as a 4-8 record in 2012, the veteran head coach came close enough to glory in 2015 that he doesn’t want to let 8-5 start a backwards trend. He wants to keep this program moving in the right direction and even though Wisconsin is considered the class of the Big Ten West, the Hawkeyes can change that.

For the fourth straight season, the Hawkeyes fell short in postseason play, losing to Florida’s stingy defensive attack in the Outback Bowl and part of the issue was the offensive side of the ball failing to deliver. Will things get back on track in 2017?

The Hawkeyes have some important players returning, but they’re also losing starting quarterback C.J. Beathard who underperformed greatly in 2016. It’s time to put up or shut up.

Offense

There has been a major change mad to the offensive side of the ball as Kirk Ferentz’s son, Brian Ferentz, is taking over as offensive coordinator, replacing Greg Davis who retired following the 2016 season. The younger Ferentz was a former Iowa lineman.

Obviously the biggest question mark is the quarterback position. Who replaces C.J. Beathard under center following an underwhelming 2016 season by the senior? It seems to be a two-man race between sophomore Nathan Stanley and junior Tyler Wiegers.

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Both quarterbacks were somewhat highly-recruited out of high school as Stanley was the 22nd-best pro-style quarterback in the 2016 class and Wiegers was 24th in the 2014 class. Neither had an impressive spring game, but there’s talk that the staff is favoring the younger gunslinger. It could be his upside.

In front of whoever starts at quarterback will be one of the best offensive lines in the country. How can I tell? Well, they were recognized last season with awards for being the best and they return all five starters. If that’s not a recipe for offensive success and confidence-building for a young quarterback, I’m not sure what is.

Tight end George Kittle’s departure will hurt, but senior Peter Pakar returns and could have a major impact. Combine him with sophomore Noah Fant and you have a solid duo.

At receiver, Matt VandeBerg returns after missing nine games due to a season-ending injury in 2016. He’s one of the best wide outs in the conference and he’ll be a force. Sophomore Devonte Young is expected to start alongside him.

Can Akrum Wadley live up to the hype?

Everyone knows how good the offensive line is, but Akrum Wadley might be the most underrated running back in the conference, if not the nation. LeShun Daniels had a heck of a senior year in 2016, rushing for 1,058 yards and 10 touchdowns, but Wadley finished with 23 more yards and the same amount of scores on 45 less carries.

That offensive line sure helped, but his 6.4 yards per carry were as much his effort as it was the big guys up front. Now that the backfield is squarely his, can he become the clear lead back and live up to the tremendous hype?

Defenses will be loading the box for the veteran running back with a first-year starter at quarterback and that could cause problems. He has the talent to respond and surpass the 1,500-yard mark.

Defense

Defensively, seven starters return and most of them come from the linebacking unit. Three, however, are defensive linemen and one is a defensive back. The front-seven should be one of the strongest in the conference while the defensive backfield, ranked 29th nationally against the pass in 2016, could take a hit.

Losing 2015 Thorpe Award winner Desmond King isn’t going to be easy for this squad, but he will be replaced by a couple of young guys who got to learn under him. Junior Joshua Jackson and sophomore Manny Rugamba are projected starters with Cedric Boswell, a freshman, and sophomore Michael Ojemudia waiting in the wings. They’ll need a strong summer to get back to where the unit was last year.

Senior safety Miles Taylor returns to his starting spot, but he had 45 total tackles and no picks last season. Jake Gervase and Amani Hooker will be battling for the other starting spot.

On the line, All-Big Ten tackle Jaleel Johnson is gone, but returning is Nathan Bazata. He had 39 total tackles, three for loss and 1.5 sacks as a junior and will be expected to do more. Parker Hesse will be fighting off blue-chip freshman A.J. Epenesa at defensive end. He should be the clear starter with 7.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks as a sophomore.

Matt Nelson, Anthony Nelson, Cedrick Lattimore and Brady Reiff are all young guys battling for the last two starting spots.

Josey Jewell, a superstar-in-the-making?

The linebackers returning to the Hawkeyes in 2015 are the strongest group on the defensive side of the ball. Although they ranked just 43rd in the nation in stopping the run, returning three starters to the unit means that improvement is inevitable. Another year in the system with more knowledge and experience will only improve things.

Seniors Ben Niemann and Bo Bower return to the outside linebacker positions, but there’s a superstar-in-the-making in the middle of the defense by the name of Josey Jewell. The two outside backers finished fourth and second on the team, respectively, in tackles last season while Jewell was top dog with 124 combined takedowns.

As long as he can remain healthy this year, along with his battery mates, he could be the top linebacker in the Big Ten and a potential All-American. This linebacking unit is scary and could combine for over 300 tackles in 2017.

2017 schedule

One quick glance at the Hawkeyes’ 2017 schedule and you might be thinking that they have it easy, but you’d be wrong. Sure, the first three games of the season should be sure wins, but the rivalry game against Iowa State on Sept. 9 in Ames is not a given. Although Iowa won 42-3 last season, anything can happen in rivalry games, especially on the road.

Penn State is the first Big Ten foe and the Nittany Lions also happen to be defending conference champions. Michigan State on the road will be no cakewalk, no matter what happened with the Spartans last season. The first truly winnable conference game is Illinois on Oct. 7 before a bye week.

After that, the schedule looks somewhat favorable for a couple of weeks and then the Wisconsin-Ohio State gauntlet hits. Those two games could decide a lot for the Hawkeyes’ race for the Big Ten West.

Purdue and a rivalry game against Nebraska round out the season. Iowa demolished Nebraska 40-10 at home last season and you know the Cornhuskers didn’t forget about that. They will be out for blood.

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Prediction: 7-5 (4-5 Big Ten)

Iowa will begin the season 3-0 and the Hawkeyes will be feeling good heading into a huge game against Penn State at home. Take down the Nittany Lions and the season could be on a fast-track toward success and possible titles. Lose and it’s a long road to the end. Unfortunately Penn State and Michigan State won’t be easy and I can see the Hawkeyes losing both before beating Illinois.

The bye week will do them some good as they come out to win a couple before dropping two against Ohio State and Wisconsin, falling out of the divisional race. Iowa will end the year with two straight wins and a bowl berth.