UCLA Football: Bruins’ 2017 season preview and predictions

Major injuries plummeted UCLA football out of the postseason for the first time in six years. Can it contend for the Pac-12 South in 2017?

UCLA finds itself at something of a crossroads this season. When Jim Mora took over the Bruins in 2012, there was a lot of talk about a changing of the guard in Los Angeles. The team was able to take advantage of USC’s downturn under NCAA sanctions to win the Pac-12 South title in Mora’s first season. Since then, however, the Bruins have fallen back in the division pecking order.

The recruitment of Josh Rosen, the top-rated pro style quarterback in the Class of 2015, was supposed to maintain UCLA’s momentum. Rosen dealt with the inevitable growing pains of his freshman campaign, but the Bruins still went 8-5.

Hope ended prematurely in 2016 as Rosen was injured midway through the season. He is likely going to be one of the top quarterbacks drafted in the 2018 NFL Draft, so time is running out for Mora to capitalize on his recruiting coup.

Things won’t be any easier in the Pac-12 South. USC has returned to prominence after winning last year’s Rose Bowl on their rival’s home field. The Arizona schools are desperate to return to bowl eligibility after 2016 stumbles. And Utah and Colorado hope to remain contenders in the division.

The Bruins lost a fair number of parts on defense in last year’s NFL Draft. But the offense could be even better with a more mature Rosen once again healthy. Who needs to step up most to help the Bruins return to prominence in the Pac-12?

Offense

We’ve already begun to talk about Josh Rosen at quarterback, mainly because he is the catalyst for the Bruins’ hopes in 2017. When Mora was forced to turn to senior backup Mike Fafaul last season, the offense sputtered. Fafaul completed just 52 percent of his passes for only about 40 percent of the yardage per game accumulated by Rosen. This year, Rosen will be backed up by redshirt freshman Devon Modster.

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Where UCLA might be strongest is along the offensive line. The unit returns a group that has a combined 85 college starts between them. Four redshirt seniors and redshirt junior left tackle Kolton Miller all return from last season.

That continuity should help the team as they gel further. If any go down with injury, however, there is a lack of experienced depth. Three of the five projected backups are freshman who await their first college games.

Though the team has to replace tight end Nate Iese, the receiving corps returns both its top pass catchers from 2016. Darren Andrews and Jordan Lasley are both back, as is Eldridge Massington, a sprinter on the Bruins track team. Last year’s backup tight end Austin Roberts is back, though he will continue to compete with redshirt sophomore Caleb Wilson to take over Iese’s starting role.

Will anyone step up in the running game?

Last season, only Texas State averaged fewer yards on the ground than UCLA. The Bruins managed to run for fewer than 85 yards per game last season. That especially hurt Fafaul’s chances to beat defenses with his arm when he was forced to replace Rosen under center. It isn’t like Mora has never produced decent rushing attacks in Pasadena. But if the Bruins are going to capitalize on Rosen’s true potential, someone will need to take charge in the backfield.

Perhaps that will be senior Nate Starks, or maybe one of the juniors Soso Jamabo or Bolu Olorunfunmi. None of the three did particularly much last season to think they’ll be the one to step up production on the ground. But with a more veteran offensive line in 2017, it is not infeasible that one might break out. A quartet of sophomores could also get more chances to produce this season.

Defense

Last year the UCLA defense was in some ways the difference between a four-win season and an even bigger collapse. Most of the team’s talent was on that side of the ball. But that will change drastically in 2017, as six players from last year’s unit are now on NFL rosters. Only eight other teams in the FBS return less production on defense than the Bruins.

Fortunately for Mora and crew, among those eight are two other Pac-12 rivals. Still, that won’t help replace players like Takkarist McKinley and Eddie Vanderdoes on the defensive line. Jacob Tuioti-Mariner is the anchor at defensive tackle, with a pair of sophomores and a freshman joining him on the line of scrimmage. Of course, it helps that the freshman is Jaelan Phillips, the top-ranked recruit in the entire country last year.

Behind them, the Bruins must also replace linebackers Jayon Brown and Deon Hollins. At least senior middle linebacker Kenny Young returns for the Bruins. On either side of Young, the Bruins will be fielding players with limited experience. Weakside linebacker Josh Woods, a junior despite being just 19 years old, will likely be a key cog in the front seven after a strong showing in the spring.

Will the secondary drop off in 2017?

Last year, the Bruins fielded the seventh-best defense in the nation against the pass. But in addition to the star power lost to the NFL in the front seven, the team also saw cornerback Fabian Moreau and safety Randall Goforth move on to pro careers.

They still return plenty of talent. Junior safety Jaleel Wadood, a preseason Thorpe Award candidate, brings stability to the group. Adarius Pickett, a redshirt junior with starting experience, is the frontrunner to take over Goforth’s position. Nate Meadors was the starting cornerback opposite Moreau last season.

Darnay Holmes, the top-rated cornerback in the country according to Scout, looks likely to claim Moreau’s spot on the outside. He is the biggest question mark in what should hopefully still be a solid unit. Even marginal decline in the secondary, though, could prove costly to UCLA’s dreams of competing for the Pac-12 South this year.

2017 Schedule

The Bruins were dealt few favors in this critical season as they look to return to prominence. The non-conference schedule begins with a visit to the Rose Bowl by Texas A&M. Though the Aggies are playing for Kevin Sumlin’s job, it remains to be seen whether their offense can perform. That matchup is followed by a home game against Hawaii and a trip to Memphis to face the Tigers at the Liberty Bowl.

Pac-12 play begins with a tough test at Stanford. Then Colorado visits Pasadena before the Bruins get a bye week on the first weekend of October. The October schedule includes road trips to Arizona and Washington sandwiched around a visit to California by the Ducks.

In November, UCLA will play two Friday night games. The first comes right after Halloween in Salt Lake City. The latter will be played in Pasadena on Black Friday against California. In between, the Bruins host Arizona State and take on USC in Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in the Battle for the Victory Bell. It is a schedule with few guarantees but enough meat to impress pollsters should the Bruins get back to winning ways.

Next: NFL Mock Draft 2018: Way-too-early edition

Prediction: 9-3 (6-3 Pac-12)

It all comes down to health, as it so often does. As long as Rosen stays on the field, everything else will fall into place more easily. The Bruins are in good position to sweep their non-conference schedule, with the toughest test probably the trip to Memphis. Having to play Stanford, Washington, and USC all on the road is rough; UCLA will be lucky to go 1-2 in those games. The trip to Utah, coming right after the visit to Seattle, could also be a trap. The Pac-12 South is probably out of reach, but the postseason is right there in sight.