There are more than a few college football coaches who are in “win-now” mode. Which ten men are in imminent danger of being out of a job this season?
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The college football world is no different from any other job out there. If you work hard and are successful you will be rewarded or earn a more high-profile gig. If you don’t live up to what the job requires then people will be upset, alumni will grumble louder and louder. Eventually you have the vocal minority become the vocal majority and the coach for your favorite school or Alma Mater is fired or “forced to resign”.
It happens every season, across the country. If you don’t produce then you won’t last very long, it’s that simple. So, for 2017 the story remains the same just a brand new crop of coaches. Some are new to this and some are just opening old wounds that have been suffered over the past few seasons. So what 10 schools should be watched for potential coaching changes by the end of 2017? The first one should be pretty easy.
Ole Miss
Current head coach: Matt Luke (Interim Head Coach)
Reasons why job may come open: Hugh Freeze’s off field issues came to a head recently which resulted in his removal as head coach at Ole Miss. Interim head coach Matt Luke is in a similar position that former Ohio State defensive coordinator Luke Fickell was after Jim Tressell was canned. You’re there to just keep the ship afloat, that’s all. Sure, there’s always a chance that Luke keeps the job. Ed Orgeron, and interim at LSU, earned the full time gig. The odds aren’t in Luke’s favor.
How job can be saved: It’s possible that Luke can possibly save his job, there wasn’t a massive player defection (yet) and the season hasn’t even started. Ole Miss remains in the midsection of the SEC West and gives himself a chance if the Rebels win eight or nine games. He makes a strong argument with a 10-win or better season but first things first, he’s got fall camp.
Chances job comes open: 90% Percent
Notre Dame
Current head coach: Brian Kelly (Record at Notre Dame: 59-31)
Reasons why job may come open: 2012’s dream season seems like a long time ago. Especially when you see just how far Notre Dame has fallen off the cliff since then. Close calls versus Florida State in 2014 and Stanford in 2015 could’ve put Notre Dame in much better bowl and even playoff position. 2016 was a nightmare than couldn’t end and Kelly’s blame on others that were clearly his doing remained constant. When you’re coaching at one of college football’s blue-blood programs you don’t get many off-seasons before you’re shown the door.
How job can be saved: It’s pretty simple for Kelly, all he has to do is win eight to 10 games and not blame anybody. He’s got a pretty easy job at Notre Dame and having an athletic director in your corner helps. However, Kelly has made it much harder on himself and the 2017 Notre Dame schedule doesn’t help.
Chances job comes open: 65% Percent
Texas A&M
Current head coach: Kevin Sumlin (Record at Texas A&M: 44-21)
Reasons why job may come open: Like many other coaches on this list, Sumlin’s time at Texas A&M started off with a bang as the Aggies won the Cotton Bowl and Manziel Mania was in full swing. However, it’s been filled with misses and coulda, shoulda, woulda’s ever since. Frequent coaching changes have hurt the continuity of the first two seasons and Sumlin’s loss to Kansas State in the Texas Bowl puts he and the program back to square one in 2017. One more November swoon might proven to be the last straw.
How job can be saved: Sumlin needs to capture the magic of 2012 and 2013, that’s how you get off the hot seat at A&M. However, there is no Johnny Football to save you and Trevor Knight has departed for the NFL. It’s going to take an upset or two or three if Sumlin wants to be the head coach at A&M in 2018. They’ve done it before. They’re going to have to do it again.
Chances job comes open: 75% Percent
Tennessee
Current head coach: Butch Jones (Record at Tennessee: 30-21)
Reasons why job may come open: Under Jones, the Vols have been to three straight bowl games which would essentially make him safe but that’s not entirely true. Tennessee has failed to capture the preseason hype they’ve been given over the past few seasons and those 10-11 win seasons have ended in nine win seasons. New Tennessee athletic director John Currie has not given Jones a contract extension that would extend him past 2020 and that makes this season very critical.
How job can be saved: Of all of the coaches and teams on this list, Jones may have the most successful plan to keep his job. All he has to do is win the SEC East. The schedule in the east works in his favor, it’s just all about how Tennessee can execute. Something that’s been an issue the last few seasons. With Georgia and Florida waiting in the wings he’ll have his work cut out for him. One big upset (or two) might be enough to earn him at least another year.
Chances job comes open: 60% Percent
Michigan State
Current head coach: Mark Dantonio (Record at Michigan State: 90-42)
Reasons why job may come open: From 2013-2015, Michigan State won 11-plus games. They won two Big Ten titles in the process. The 2016 season hit the Spartans like a ton of bricks as they fell to a 9-3 finish. The struggling season, along with various off field issues for Michigan State have the heat turned up slightly for Dantonio in East Lansing. Add in a resurgent Big Ten east and 2017 becomes critical.
How job can be saved: Getting the Spartans back to a bowl game would go a long way in saving Dantonio’s job. Beyond that he needs to simply clean up of the program. Dantonio has taken the proper steps so far but if Sparty struggles in 2017, then Dantonio may be looking for another head coaching job.
Chances job comes open: 45% Percent
Arizona
Current head coach: Rich Rodriguez (Record at Arizona: 36-29)
Reasons job may come open: The 2014 Fiesta Bowl seemed like just the beginning for the Rich Rod era at Arizona, after back to back 8-5 seasons, the Wildcats finally reached a major bowl game. Instead of it being the beginning of a revival in Tucson, it’s been the beginning of the end which hit rock bottom with a 3-9 finish in 2016. Like Kevin Sumlin, Rodriguez hasn’t followed up a strong first season with any measure of continued success. He needs to find some of that old magic, and fast.
How job can be saved: The Pac-12’s south division has become increasingly difficult over the past few seasons and showing signs is better than showing nothing at all. The Wildcats return 51 letterman from a year ago so a year older and a year wiser means that this team could easily go .500 which would save Rich Rod’s job. That’s not a very high bar, but it’s a step in the right direction compared to last year’s forgettable season.
Chances job comes open: 50% Percent
Arizona State
Current head coach: Todd Graham (Record at Arizona State: 39-26)
Reasons job may come open: Like in-state rival Arizona, the Sun Devils had a special 2014 as they won 10 games for the second straight season. Fast forward to 2017, the Sun Devils are coming off of back to back seasons under .500 and life in the Pac-12 south is not getting any easier. Ending 2016 on a six game winning streak doesn’t help matters either. The division is going to be tough again this season with USC primed for a special season. That could spell trouble for Graham.
How job can be saved: It’s quite possible that the season’s final contest between Arizona and Arizona State will have a bowl bid and job on the line. Arizona State is talented enough to reach a bowl game but consistency will be their key. Their offense can only go up from being dead last in 2016.
Chances job comes open: 45% Percent
Texas Tech
Current head coach: Kliff Kingsbury (Record at Texas Tech: 24-26)
Reasons job may come open: Consistency has been Kingsbury’s downfall in Lubbock. He started off hot with an 8-5 record and a bowl bid in 2013. After that it has been no bowl/bowl/no bowl and year five will be even more difficult since Pat Mahomes is no longer under center for the Red Raiders. The Big 12 hasn’t been kind to the Ryan Gosling look-alike either as Kingsbury has a 13-23 record in conference. A Red-Raider alum, Kingsbury was supposed to be the golden boy that came home to resurrect the Texas Tech program. He hasn’t managed to do that yet.
How job can be saved: The Red Raiders fan base has low expectations, as in if you make a bowl game then they will be happy. However, even the bare minimum under Kingsbury has been climbing Mt. Everest. I’m worried that even with the bowl bid, is Kingsbury totally safe? Not sure. With Tom Herman surging at Texas and new head man Lincoln Riley taking over in Oklahoma the moment is squarely off the Red Raiders right now. They’ve got to recapture some of it before it’s too late.
Chances job comes open: 70% Percent
UCLA
Current head coach: Jim Mora Jr. (Record at UCLA: 41-24)
Reasons job may come open: Like Rick Neuhisel and Karl Dorrell before him, Jim Mora Jr. has been handed chances to capitalize on a seemingly weak USC and turn the crosstown rivalry into something that hadn’t seen since the 1960s. Like both coaches before him, Mora has maintained UCLA’s mediocrity. Only one south division title going into his 6th season at UCLA, the window to take over LA is closing quickly. If Sam Darnold has anything to say about it, the window might be closed for Mora for good.
How job can be saved: The Bruins struggled to stay healthy in 2016 especially quarterback Josh Rosen. If the highly touted signal caller can remain healthy and lead the other eight returning starters then it’s very possible we see UCLA’s 4-8 from 2016 flipped to 8-4, or ever better. The first month of the season will be a nice indication as UCLA sees both Texas A&M and Stanford. Win those two and you’re looking good heading into October.
Chances job comes open: 40% Percent
NC State
Current head coach: Dave Doeren (Record at NC State: 25-26)
Reasons job may come open: When you look at Doreen’s record at NC State you may be wondering why or how he would be a candidate on this list. Despite taking the Wolfpack to three straight bowl games, life in the ACC is rough and especially in the ACC’s Atlantic division. As Florida State, Louisville and Clemson fight at the top of the division the conference midsection is a three team battle and NC State remains the one constant and Syracuse and Wake Forest inch closer.
How job can be saved: NC State has come close to knocking off the ACC Atlantic’s top contender trio a few times over the past few seasons including missing a potential game winning field goal at Clemson last season. Pick up a win or two against those three and you’ve to a chance to make a run at keeping Doeren but you’re in atlantic division title conversation.
Chances job comes open: 30% Percent
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The hot-seat discussion will continue on into the season. A few rough starts might see new faces pop up in a handful of these spots. One thing is for sure, it would be highly unlike to see all 10 of these men in the same spot come December. Which seat is the hottest?