Oklahoma State Football: 2017 season preview, predictions

Find out if the 2017 Oklahoma State football team has what it takes to make the Big 12 Championship Game in the first year it returns.

In the record books, it will say the Oklahoma State Cowboys of 2015 and 2016 both went 10-3. However, in the minds and on the fingers of last year’s team there is a different story. After thumping Colorado in the Alamo Bowl, the team got rings commemorating their 11-2 season.

The discrepancy arose in the second game of the year when the Cowboys played Central Michigan at home. An officiating error and a crazy play on an untimed down that never should have happened led to a 30-27 upset loss. Mike Gundy said he counted that as a win all year and proved it with the ring. While they got robbed by classic terrible college officiating, this is obviously an insane person move, but one of the internet’s favorite coaches continued to entertain.

While minor bowl rings with a fraudulent record on them are fun, Oklahoma State has its sights set much higher. Mike Gundy gave Cowboys fans their first Big 12 Championship in 2011, the first year without an actual championship game. They got their first win against Oklahoma since Les Miles was the coach in 2002. Oklahoma State just missed out on the BCS Championship Game.

The next five years, Gundy’s team’s went 1-4 against Oklahoma. The Sooners beat them the last two years when Bedlam worked as a stand-in for the Big 12 Championship Game.

Now after a six-year hiatus, the Big 12 Championship Game is back, and Oklahoma State is geared up for a run. Gundy has one of the best offenses in the country and a few key pieces back on defense.

Will it be enough to supplant their biggest rival?

Offense

The Oklahoma State offense is experienced and explosive. They are led by senior quarterback Mason Rudolph and an upperclassmen-laden receiving corps and offensive line. Sophomore running back Justice Hill adds a touch of youth and a serious threat in the running game.

The Cowboys averaged 38.6 points per game last season on the back of the ninth-ranked passing offense at 323.9 yards per game. While those were actually both slightly down from the previous year, the running game improved by almost 50 yards to 170.6 yards per game and bumped up their total offense to 14th in the country at 494.8 yards per game.

That increase in the proficiency of the running game can be attributed to Freshman All-American Justice Hill. In his first year on campus, Hill ran for 1,142 yards and six touchdowns. He had the second most carries in the Big 12.

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The Oklahoma State receiving corps is the best in the country. The Cowboys bring back their two top receivers from last season. Senior James Washington had 71 catches for 1380 yards, second in the Big 12, and 10 touchdowns. Jalen McCleskey led the team with 73 catches. The now-junior had 812 yards and seven touchdowns.

They also return senior Marcell Ateman, who was the third leading receiver in 2015, but missed all of 2016 with a broken foot.

The offensive line is experienced and deep, anchored by Preseason All-Big 12 pick, tackle Zach Crabtree. Crabtree was named to the offensive team along with Hill and Washington.

The forgotten man

When you play in the same conference as someone like Baker Mayfield it’s easy to be overlooked. Mayfield is flashier, has played for the better team, and has made a trip to New York for the Heisman ceremony. However, Mason Rudolph deserves to be recognized nationally.

Rudolph threw for more yards than Mayfield last season at 4,091 yards. They both ran for six touchdowns. While Mayfield did throw for an absurd 40 touchdowns to Rudolph’s 28, Rudolph threw half as many interceptions while throwing 90 more passes. The senior’s 7-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio last season is astonishing with how many times he put the ball in the air.

This season it should be very interesting to see how their numbers stack up. Rudolph undoubtedly has the better weapons this time around. Mayfield will have to replicate his success without his two l,000-yard running backs and the best receiver in the Big 12 last season.

Defense

If Oklahoma State’s offense is a reliable scientific constant, like gravity, their defense is like aliens. Odds are they exist, but you don’t know when or if they are going to show up and what they will look like when they do. The Cowboys have just five starters returning from an average to bad defense and one of them is changing positions.

Last year’s defense improved from the previous season as they kept opponents to less than 30 points for the first time since 2013. However, the 52nd ranked scoring defense at 26.5 points per game isn’t exactly stout. They actually overperformed given the yards they gave up. Oklahoma State was 92nd in total yards 98th in passing and 82nd in rushing. A top 10 turnover margin definitely made up for some of that.

The Cowboys bring back their two junior defensive ends Cole Walterscheid and Jarrel Evans. Senior Chad Whitener is the team’s leading returning tackler. The middle linebacker tied for the team lead in tackles for loss with 6.5.

The good news is their 2011 defense that went 12-1 and won the Big 12 gave up 26.4 points per game, so there is a precedent for this team.

Old faces, new places

The biggest area of concern for Mike Gundy will be the secondary. Seniors Tre Flowers and Ramon Richards will lead the defensive backs from the safety spots. Richards is making the move to free safety from corner. He had the second most tackles of any returning player even as a corner last year. He also led the team with three interceptions. Flowers, the Cowboys’ lone defensive Preseason All-Big 12 pick, led the team last year with seven pass breakups.

Adrian Baker, a grad transfer from Clemson, and Madre Harper, who played in 12 games as a true freshman, will attempt to take over the corner spots.

2017 Oklahoma State schedule and predictions

Oklahoma State is going to put that old adage “defense wins championships” to the test this year. They unquestionably have a College Football Playoff worthy offense. The combination of Mason Rudolph, Justice Hill and James Washington is unmatched. The question is can they score enough to make up for a defense with holes where you can’t really afford to have them in the Big 12?

The Big 12 Media took Oklahoma to win the Big 12 for their third straight year. The Sooners received 19 first-place votes to the Cowboys’ 12. Kansas State was picked third and got a first-place vote as well.

Bovada set Oklahoma State’s win total for the year at nine. ESPN’s FPI is a little more down on the Cowboys, projecting their record at 7.9-4.4.

Prediction: 11-1 (8-1 Big 12)

This should be the year of Mike Gundy. The Man with the Mullet has the weapons to have a repeat of 2011.

He has to be overjoyed Bob Stoops finally left Norman. Stoops demolished the Cowboys to the tune of a 10-2 record in Gundy’s 12 years as head coach. The last two losses were de facto Big 12 Championship Games.

If Gundy, a man who is now almost 50, continues to be frustrated by the Sooners — now led by the youngest coach in FBS — Pokes fans are going to lose their minds.

Shootouts are unpredictable enough that the Cowboys will drop at least a game. The stretch to watch is Weeks 8-10. Having to go to Texas and Morgantown in back-to-back weeks before Bedlam is not great. The West Virginia game is a classic letdown spot. Florida transfer Will Grier has the ability to pick on the corners if they haven’t found their footing.

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Bedlam loses just a touch of its luster because it is highly likely that they will meet again in the Big 12 Championship Game at Jerry World a month later. The rivalry game was moved up in the schedule for probably this exact reason. This is not a bad thing if you like high-scoring football because Oklahoma State will be trying to outgun Heisman Finalist Baker Mayfield, and we might get to see it twice.