There are plenty of potential cinderella teams in college football and these Group of Five programs could make a run at a New Year’s Six bowl in 2017.
It’s a tough life for a Group of Five school. To end up in one of college football’s premier New Year’s Six bowls, they have to not only be one of the best non-Power Five teams, they also have to have a schedule that allows them to finish with a gaudy record. The latter point is why a team like Temple — arguably the best Group of Five school in 2016 — couldn’t make the cut despite winning the AAC, with out-of-conference losses to Penn State and Army staining their resume.
It’s also why schools like Houston and San Diego State don’t make this list, despite both having very promising squads. Even if the Cougars or Aztecs make it to the top of their conferences, they have one too many potential pitfalls on their schedules to be a sure-fire bet this early.
Without further ado, here are the five Group of Five schools with both the talent and the schedule to find themselves in the mid-major promised land in 2017.
5. Boise State
It’s very tempting to write off the Broncos due to their schedule, which is about as hard as it can get for a Mountain West school. Boise State has to travel to both Washington State, a likely preseason AP Top 25 team, along with a BYU squad that won nine games last season, in their non-conference slate.
In conference play, they get Colorado State and San Diego State — likely the MWC’s two other best teams — both on the road. It’s a brutal slate, and one that the Broncos aren’t likely to get through unscathed.
Still, the schedule might be just difficult enough that the Broncos could pick up a loss or two and still be in solid shape. A Mountain West title, even with an 11-2 record, might be enough for Boise to leap ahead of, say, a one-loss MAC or Conference USA champ. It’ll be hard, but if anyone can do it, it’s Brett Rypien and a powerful Broncos offense.
4. Colorado State
On paper, the Rams look pretty even with Boise State this season– maybe even a notch behind. They only went 7-6 last season, but won four of their last five regular season games and return all of the pieces from what was a terrifying offense in 2016. If Mike Bobo and company can shore up a leaky defense, the CSU-Boise game could decide the Mountain West title.
The schedule isn’t awful. The Rams visit Alabama, which is a near-certain loss, but every other game is winnable. CSU opens with two beatable Pac-12 opponents in Oregon State and rival Colorado, gets Boise State at home, and avoids San Diego State in the regular season. If the Rams can split Colorado and Boise, they could be in the driver’s seat for a New Year’s Six bowl.
3. Memphis
Good luck picking a favorite in the AAC West this season. The division is easily the most loaded in the Group of Five conferences, boasting at least four teams with a genuine chance at grabbing a conference title and a New Year’s Six bid. Many will favor Houston, and for good reason — the Cougars will be tough again under new coach Major Applewhite, but the schedule includes trips to Arizona, Temple, Tulsa and USF.
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Bet instead on Memphis, who return all the key pieces from a powerful offense and an experienced front seven. The Tigers have the division’s best quarterback in senior Riley Ferguson, who threw for 32 touchdowns and almost 3,700 yards in 2016, and arguably the best receiver in Anthony Miller.
A few tricky road trips — including a potentially decisive showdown in Houston — prevent me from pegging the Tigers as the AAC and Group of Five favorite. But they’re very possibly the team outside the power conferences with the most potential, and they get a chance to prove it at home in the Liberty Bowl against UCLA on Sept. 16.
2. Western Kentucky
The AAC and Mountain West make all the headlines in the Group of Five world, but Western Michigan proved last year that it’s possible for a team from a less heralded conference to grab the mid-major holy grail — if they can run the table, of course.
The Hilltoppers have a real shot to do so. WKU has been quietly fantastic over the past two seasons, posting a record of 23-5 and topping AAC powers USF and Memphis in bowl games. They’ve been unable to work their way into the New Year’s Day bowl conversation due to their schedules, which saw them suffer losses to LSU and Alabama before the race started to heat up.
In 2017, WKU finally has the schedule they could’ve used the past two seasons. The Toppers take on a pair of Power Five teams in Illinois and Vanderbilt, but they should be favored against both.
Western Kentucky lost a lot off their 11-win team last season — namely coach Jeff Brohm, who went to Purdue, and their leading rushers and receivers — but return stud quarterback Mike White and had a genuinely nasty front seven in 2016. If this team can find a few replacements waiting in the wings in key areas, they’re a real threat to go 13-0 and earn their third straight Conference USA title.
1. South Florida
In USF, you’ve got everything you’re looking for in a potential Cinderella. A team that won double-digit games in 2016 and returns the majority of its offense and defense? Check. The Group of Five’s best offensive playmaker in Quinton Flowers, who accounted for over 4,300 total yards and 42 touchdowns? Check. Playing in the best mid-major conference? Check. A remarkably soft schedule? Yes, that too.
The Bulls’ toughest non-conference test is a visit from Illinois, and they avoid Memphis in the regular season while getting Houston, Tulsa and Temple at home.
The Bulls aren’t a sure thing by any means — they lost coach Willie Taggart to Oregon in the offseason, and while Charlie Strong seems like a no-brainer of a replacement, there’s no guarantee of a smooth transition.
They also lost a pair of indispensable offensive playmakers in tailback Marlon Mack and receiver Rodney Adams. But they’re undoubtedly the best bet that the Group of Five has to offer, pairing a record-setting offense with a defense that should see sizable improvements under Strong’s guidance.
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South Florida will be beginning 2017 in the Group of Five driver’s seat. Whether or not they’ll end up there is another question entirely.