Auburn football enters 2017 with high hopes. Maybe this season the Tigers will knock off rival Alabama? Could this team go further and win the national title?
Well, that depends. Auburn faces the defending champs at Clemson, play LSU at Death Valley and even if Auburn defeats Alabama, the team would still face the winner of the SEC East. There are plenty of reasons Auburn will win the 2017 national title, but schedule isn’t one such reason.
In fact, there are legitimate concerns for Auburn living up to expectations. Since the team went to the national title game in 2013, the program’s combined record is 23-16. However, underwhelming quarterback play has played a critical role in the team’s recent disappointing finishes.
In 2016, Auburn lost to four ranked teams, including teams that finished ranked No. 1, 2 and 5 in the final AP poll (Texas A&M was ranked No. 17 when the two teams played).
Auburn’s schedule, while by no means easy, appears more manageable than last season. For one thing, Auburn plays its biggest rivals—Alabama and Georgia—at home. Also, Clemson, while expected to be a very good team, doesn’t appear to be as strong as last season—Auburn lost to those Tigers by a mere six points in 2016. Finally, while Texas A&M is on the road, the visitor has always won in SEC meetings between the two teams.
While there is one significant new face on The Plains in 2017, the big story for Auburn is continuity. Let’s take a look at five reasons Auburn will win the 2017 national title.
5. Underrated defense
When it comes to recent history, most opposing fanbases think of Auburn’s offense first. Part of that stems from the fact that Auburn has burned through defensive coordinators at an alarming rate. In six seasons, Auburn fielded five different defensive coordinators. Interestingly, the defensive coordinators all had sterling reputations prior to short stints at Auburn—Ted Roof, Brian Van Gorder, Ellis Johnson, Will Muschamp and Kevin Steele. All right, sterling might be overstating it, but suffice it to say, all of them had mostly positive reputations. The bottom line is Kevin Steele enters year two after a successful first season, bringing some much-needed stability.
Auburn fields one of the strongest secondary units in the SEC led by senior safety Tray Matthews and top corner Carlton Davis. The defensive line will take a slight step back after losing Carl Lawson and Montravius Adams, but the unit returns starters Marlon Davidson and Dontavius Russell. The linebackers unit looks similar on paper.
Auburn has one of the better defenses in the SEC, even if the defense doesn’t receive proper credit. Having defensive coordinator Kevin Steele back should only help the unit grow.
4. Plenty of experience
Auburn is tied for fifth in the SEC in returning starters (15). Among the other teams with a significant number of returning starters, only Georgia had as good an overall record as Auburn (identical at 8-5) and only two (out of five other teams) finished with a winning record (the other being Kentucky).
Of great importance, Auburn returns starters at critical positions. Auburn returns Kamryn Pettway as the starting running back and Kerryon Johnson as his backup. The team also returns two starters at wide receiver and another receiver who started a game last season but was severely reduced by injuries (Nate Craig-Myers). Also, Auburn returns three starters on the offensive line and gained a senior transfer from Florida State in guard Wilson Bell.
Auburn returns three starters in the secondary, two starters at linebacker, and two defensive linemen. Finally, Auburn gets one more year of one of the nation’s best kickers in Daniel Carlson. Carlson can hit long-range field goals and is almost a guaranteed touchback with each kickoff.
3. Offensive line
Auburn’s offensive line can compete with any other team in the country, including Alabama. Braden Smith was a third team All-American selection last season at right guard. He will slide out this season to right tackle as Auburn moves to a more versatile offense. Smith is a versatile, athletic lineman.
Smith and senior center Austin Golson will be the leaders of the unit. Golson is also versatile, having started nine games at center in 2016 and also starting four games at left tackle. Darius James returns at left tackle after making nine starts at the position last season.
Wilson Bell joins the line after 18 starts in his time at Florida State. Mike Horton rounds out the group at right guard after playing as a reserve last season in every game. Guard Marquel Harrell and highly touted freshman Calvin Ashley should provide relief as key reserves.
The program has developed a reputation for producing great run blockers, but this season the Tigers will need lineman who can both pass protect and run block. The team appears capable of doing so, at least on paper.
2. Kamryn Pettway
Kerryon Johnson is a nice option as a change-of-pace, but Auburn needs Kamryn Pettway to stay healthy and be the team’s primary back. Pettway is one of the best running backs in the nation when healthy.
Pettway didn’t play in the team’s loss to Clemson, didn’t play in the team’s loss to Georgia and looked less than 100 percent against Alabama. He had a great game in a loss to Texas A&M but had little support and had three different quarterbacks against Oklahoma.
When Pettway ran effectively, Auburn went 6-1 in 2016. Of course, he received 30 carries against Ole Miss. A good bet says he won’t receive that many carries in one game with new offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey and that should better preserve his health.
Pettway will play a key role if Auburn is to beat heavyweights like Clemson, LSU, Alabama and Georgia. Yes, Auburn is expected to pass the ball much more this season, but having an effective back who is difficult to bring down will make the offense even better.
1. A new quarterback
The jury is still out on how good new Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham can be, and we will find out this season, but there is no question he is the best pure passer the program has seen since Cam Newton.
Auburn made it to the national title in 2013 partly because of a strong defense, although mostly because of a great offensive line and a great running game with a trio of rushers in quarterback Nick Marshall and running backs Tre Mason and Corey Grant.
In 2014, the offense and defense regressed. Opposing teams exploited Marshall’s inability to throw the ball well and losing Mason at running back hurt. Auburn struggled in 2015 due to ineffective quarterback play. Last season, injuries hurt and while quarterback play was better, it was still majorly lacking. John Franklin III lacked the ability to throw the ball effectively, while Sean White struggled to stay healthy.
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As the team enters 2017, excitement is high because Jarrett Stidham has shown he is a dual-threat quarterback with a strong arm. Coming out of Texas in high school and having played for a year at Baylor in a pass-heavy offense, Stidham has shown he is a talented passer. With a talented offensive line, a talented defense and the best quarterback the program has seen in some time, Auburn football has all the pieces to make a run at the national title.