Alabama football head coach Nick Saban is trying to successfully guide a team from No. 1 in the preseason polls to the finish of the season.
We are just weeks away from the 2017 Alabama football season, so it is time to take a serious look at the schedule.
Aside from Da’Shawn Hand’s DUI arrest, it’s been a relatively quiet offseason for Alabama. The team lost several key players from the 2016 team to the NFL Draft, but Saban brought in a stacked recruiting class, as always.
The Crimson Tide open the season at the brand-new Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta against Florida State. Saban said the challenge has only added fight and focus to his team’s practices this fall.
Now, let’s take a look at a game-by-game prediction for the upcoming season, including an overall record estimate, for the Crimson Tide.
Alabama often opens the season with tough opposition, but this might be the most epic opener Alabama has seen in decades. Ultimately, this is a teacher-pupil matchup with Saban’s former assistant Jimbo Fisher facing his former boss for the first time. Unfortunately for Florida State fans, this student rarely defeats the master and that has certainly been the case with Saban, most recently against former offensive coordinator Jim McElwain in the SEC Championship game.
This isn’t likely to be like last season’s opening 52-6 drubbing of USC. This will be much more similar to Alabama’s 2014 opener, a 33-23 grudge match against West Virginia.
Florida State has an outstanding secondary, so Alabama will have to pound it out on the ground and with a great defense. Fisher is going to try to exploit Alabama’s secondary, but the Crimson Tide will test Florida State’s greatest weakness: the offensive line.
In the end, Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts will make just enough plays to squeak Alabama past a worthy opponent.
Final Score: Alabama 31, Florida State 27 (1-0)
Nick Saban will swear up-and-down all week that this is the most important game of the year. He’ll talk about how Fresno State is capable of beating Alabama. Don’t believe him for a minute.
Alabama will win this game handily. If they don’t, I will obviously have to eat my words. However, this is the second easiest game of the year for Alabama, so if the team loses, the Crimson Tide’s season will essentially be over. Alabama has won 15 straight home openers. With all due respect to the Bulldogs, Fresno State isn’t even the best team Alabama faces out of the Mountain West.
I don’t think Alabama will score 73 points, as Ole Miss did against Fresno State in 2015. Saban likes to throw in the backups against inferior competition once his team is up by four touchdowns or so.
Final Score: Alabama 45, Fresno State 10 (2-0)
As previously alluded to, Colorado State is the more challenging Mountain West opponent for Alabama in 2017. Still, as far as non-conference opponents go, the Rams are nothing compared to Florida State, likely one of the toughest teams Alabama will face all season.
Colorado State has a strong offense with scrappy running back Dalyn Dawkins, senior quarterback Nick Stevens and explosive receiver Michael Gallup.
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In the end, the Rams might make this game a closer score than expected, but the outcome will still be in favor of the Crimson Tide. Alabama’s secondary might get exposed, but the defensive line is always impressive, especially against non-conference opponents.
While Colorado State has a strong defense for the Mountain West, Alabama should be able to do plenty of damage.
Final Score: Alabama 41, Colorado State 17 (3-0)
Vanderbilt represents Alabama’s first SEC game of the season and a road game no less. Aside from a blowout bowl game and being bewildered by Georgia Tech’s triple option offense, Vanderbilt either scored upset wins (Georgia and Tennessee) or respectable losses last season (Florida by just seven points, Auburn by just seven points on The Plains).
Vanderbilt executes a strategy not too dissimilar from Alabama’s traditional run the ball and let your defense do the rest mentality. Ralph Webb is one of the SEC’s best running backs, although it is hard to imagine him excelling against Alabama’s run defense.
Still, Vandy’s strong defense likely makes this a low-scoring defensive grudge match. Ultimately, Alabama’s offense will wear the Commodores down.
Final score: Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 17 (4-0, 1-0 SEC)
Ole Miss is a dangerous opponent for Alabama because Shea Patterson is a developing young quarterback with improvisation skills and excellent mobility. The Rebels also have a tall, physical receiver in Van Jefferson.
The problem is Ole Miss doesn’t have a defense to match Alabama. Alabama should find plenty of traction in wearing down the Rebels’ defense. In particular, Alabama running back Bo Scarbrough should have a strong game. Jalen Hurts will have success against the Rebels’ secondary, too.
The home crowd should give the Crimson Tide a bit of a boost as well. Still, don’t be surprised if Patterson and the offense surprise a little.
Final Score: Alabama 45, Ole Miss 35 (5-0, 2-0 SEC)
The Aggies are one of the tougher SEC matchups for Alabama. Running back Trayveon Williams gave multiple SEC defenses problems in 2016. The team will likely have a mobile starting quarterback in either Nick Starkel or Kellen Mond. Additionally, there is Christian Kirk, an outstanding special teams player, as well as electric wide receiver. He will give the Alabama secondary fits.
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On defense, the Aggies’ secondary is stronger, although the team isn’t as strong up front. When losing a talent like Myles Garrett, typically there is a small dip in talent. Alabama will likely pound the ball on the ground with great success. Expect Jalen Hurts to have a strong day running the ball, as well as Alabama running back Damien Harris.
Final Score: Alabama 41, Texas A&M 27 (6-0, 3-0 SEC)
The score of the 2016 contest is misleading, as Arkansas added many so-called garbage points in the second half. These weren’t strictly garbage points, as Alabama’s secondary was genuinely struggling to contain the Arkansas passing game. Still, Alabama led 28-7 midway through the second quarter.
Expect a closer contest in 2017, but not too much closer. Something that resembles the final score from 2016 but feels closer in real time. Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen, if given enough time to throw the ball, may find success against the Alabama secondary. Allen is one of the strongest passers in the SEC, although he doesn’t have as many targets as he had last season.
All of that said, Arkansas’ defensive line is among the weaker units in the SEC. Expect Alabama to run the ball and run often with success. Alabama running backs Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris should both have strong outings.
Final Score: Alabama 48, Arkansas 31 (7-0, 4-0 SEC)
Last season’s “contest” wasn’t much of a contest, and Tennessee had more talent on paper in 2016. One of the Volunteers’ major challenges this season is figuring out how to replace quarterback Joshua Dobbs. He produced major stats both through the air and on the ground.
It is hard to imagine the result being much different in 2017 than it was in 2016. To make matters worse, this season the game is at Bryant-Denny and not Neyland Stadium.
Expect Alabama’s defense to salivate with this matchup. Yes, Tennessee replaces Alvin Kamara with his more than capable backup John Kelly, but Tennessee is thin on offense outside of Kelly. Dobbs’ loss will be felt. As good as Kelly is as a back, not many backs have great outings against Alabama and this is no exception.
Final Score: Alabama 49, Tennessee 9 (8-0, 5-0 SEC)
LSU faces one of the most difficult schedules in the country in 2017 and having to face Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium is no small task. Because Alabama faces the Tigers at home, this game is more decisively in favor of the Crimson Tide. Playing in Death Valley is one of the most difficult tasks for any team, especially at night, and the Alabama-LSU game is almost always played at night.
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When Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts emerged from a 10-0 victory at LSU last season, fans realized he truly isn’t fazed by much, always seems to be calm under pressure.
Alabama doesn’t have the tall task of defending Leonard Fournette, but the team stillmust contain running back Derrius Guice. LSU seems to always have powerful running backs and outstanding defensive backs. DJ Chark is a playmaker at wide receiver who might be a difficult matchup for the Alabama secondary.
Meanwhile, Hurts will need to be on point again because Arden Key will be pressuring him the entire game. Expect Damien Harris to have a solid rushing effort and Hurts to do enough to carry the Crimson Tide.
Final Score: Alabama 31, LSU 17 (9-0, 6-0 SEC)
The annoying, almost deafening sound of cowbells makes this a bit more challenging, but the safe money is on Alabama winning this comfortably.
Expect Nick Fitzgerald to accumulate plenty of yards on the ground, although points will be hard to come by. Alabama will miss the sideline-to-sideline tenacity provided by Reuben Foster, although the team still has plenty of talent.
The Bulldogs don’t possess much on the offensive line, so while Fitzgerald may have success at first, he likely won’t find sustained success. Wide receiver Jamal Couch could be a mismatch for the Alabama secondary though.
Miss State’s defense doesn’t look great on paper, especially a porous secondary. Expect a big game from Alabama receiver Calvin Ridley. Alabama is going to try to exploit the Bulldogs’ weak secondary while offering Jalen Hurts a chance to show off his progress.
Final Score: Alabama 42, Mississippi State 13 (10-0, 7-0 SEC)
This game should be Alabama’s easiest game of the season, the lone FCS opponent. Mercer first fielded a football team back in 1892, but only reinstated football in 2013, after a 72-year hiatus according to the school’s media guide.
Mercer head coach Bobby Lamb guided the team to a 6-5 record last season in the school’s third season in the Southern Conference. The team returns second-leading rusher Alex Lakes, although the team appears to be young and inexperienced on the whole.
This game could be a great opportunity for Saban to test out young talent like running back Najee Harris and linebackers Mack Wilson and Ben Davis. It might also be an opportunity to work out any kinks in the secondary or look at the talent buried in the depth chart at wide receiver.
The Crimson Tide feel strongly about the amount of talent the team possesses at the position, but it will be interesting to see who earns starting jobs and serious playing time. At this point, Calvin Ridley appears the only one assured a starting spot, although other players have stood out at various points.
Expect Alabama to gain a sizable lead early and give way to backups during the second half.
Final Score: Alabama 38, Mercer 0 (11-0, 7-0 SEC)
This game could go either way. However, Auburn hasn’t had a solid pocket passer since Cam Newton, the last time Auburn won a National Championship. It’s difficult to say if quarterback Jarrett Stidham can be the provide the same type of statistical boost, but the team has a lot of pieces to upset Alabama.
Unfortunately, it’s difficult to see the team surviving a road trip to LSU against a tough defense in an even tougher environment.
Putting that aside, Auburn has Kamryn Pettway, a tough, physical back. He struggled last season against Alabama, but it was clear he was returning to action while not fully recovered from an injury. If he is healthy for this year’s game, he will be a vital part of the offense. Auburn’s offensive line is every bit as good as Alabama’s offensive line. Additionally, Auburn’s defense went under-the-radar last season and may surprise some people this season.
Expect new Auburn offensive coordinator to target Alabama’s secondary and pick apart at the secondary slowly, throwing in plenty of designed runs to mix things up.
In the end, expect a back-and-forth tilt similar to the 2013 Iron Bowl.
Next: College Football: Top 50 breakout candidates for 2017
Final Score: Auburn 31, Alabama 28 (11-1, 7-1 SEC)
Quick note: Despite a loss to Auburn, I still project Alabama to qualify for the College Football Playoff after winning the SEC. Very few teams run the table over the course of the season these days. Auburn returns to the Sugar Bowl with just two losses on the season.