Washington football aspires to return to the College Football Playoff in 2017. See how we predict the upcoming regular season will play out for the Huskies.
Last year’s Washington squad won the Pac-12 for the first time since it was still the Pac-10 back in 2000. The Huskies went 11-1 in the regular season, knocked off Colorado, and earned a trip to the College Football Playoff. There they ran into the buzzsaw that is Alabama, but the Huskies still acquitted themselves well by holding the Crimson Tide to 24 points.
How will Chris Petersen’s team react to being a frontrunner from the outset in 2017? The 2016 offense ranked among the top scoring units in the country, and they return most of the starters from that group. Jake Browning looks like a legitimate Heisman contender, and a double-headed backfield is built to keep opponents off balance.
They also boasted one of the stingiest defenses in the nation last season. Five of their 11 starters have moved on from college, but the team returns a deep group that should not drop off too much in 2017. Anchored by defensive tackle Vita Vea up front, Washington should shut down its opponents once again despite the losses.
As long as all the parts come together, Huskies fans could be in for another transcendent season in Seattle. Can UW return to the College Football Playoff? Click ahead to read our game-by-game preview as we predict the result of each Washington showdown on the 2017 schedule.
Rutgers offers up an interesting data point right out of the gate. The Scarlet Knights played Washington in 2016 in Seattle to open the season. Chris Ash’s team fell 48-13 in Husky Stadium on Sept. 3. Though Rutgers ran nearly 30 more plays than the Huskies, they managed to compile 76 fewer total yards.
Outplayed in every facet of the game, the loss foreshadowed a rough year to come. Last year the Scarlet Knights went winless in the Big Ten and finished the year 2-10. Their two wins on the year came against FCS Howard and New Mexico.
Chris Ash and his staff lost more than half their starters on offense from a team that ranked outside the top 100 in every major offensive category. They do, however, return eight starters to a defense that gave up 37 points and nearly 265 rushing yards per game. Another dismal year could lay ahead in the upcoming season for Rutgers fans.
Prediction: Washington 55, Rutgers 10 (1-0)
The result for the return game in New Jersey will probably look at least as lopsided as it did last year. Washington will jump out to an early lead, then pull its starters in the third quarter on both sides of the ball. At that point Rutgers will probably only have a field goal. Look for the Huskies defense to concede a late consolation touchdown, but by then the result will be firmly in grasp.
Every season since 2011, the Huskies have featured a home game against a FCS opponent on their schedule. This season, that team will be Montana out of the Big Sky. Last year, Montana broke its three-year FCS playoff streak with a mediocre season. The Grizzlies finished 6-5 overall and went just 3-5 in Big Sky play.
Bob Stitt enters his third year in Missoula at a crossroads. The Grizzlies still have the players to be a conference contender yet again, but would that just mean another early exit from the playoffs? The fact that both preseason Big Sky polls picked Montana to finish sixth in the 13-team league is telling. Stitt has a team unlikely to make many waves at the FCS level.
The teams that have pulled off massive FCS-over-FBS upsets in recent years have been national contenders at the second level. Think Appalachian State over Michigan in 2007, for instance, or North Dakota State’s recent run of top-tier victories. Montana is not that caliber of team, at least not this year.
Prediction: Washington 62, Montana 7 (2-0)
There used to be an annual contest between the two schools during the 1920s and early 1930s. Washington and Montana, though, have not played one another since 1951. In fifteen games against the Huskies, Montana has yet to win dating back to 1923. They’ll be waiting much longer for their chance to take down UW after plummeting in a blowout loss at Husky Stadium.
Fresno State used to have a reputation as a team that would take on any challengers. The Bulldogs were great at the turn of the century under legendary coach Pat Hill. They still don’t shy away from showdowns against Power Five teams, but the results have been far less impressive in the last few years since Derek Carr graduated.
Last year the Bulldogs ended their season 1-11. Their only win came against FCS Sacramento State. As a result, head coach Tim DeRuyter was kicked to the curb. Fresno State brought in former California head coach Jeff Tedford to take over the reins of the team.
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That could be an astute decision by the Bulldogs, who have declined on a sharp curve over the past three seasons. But Tedford’s first year in Fresno could still be a difficult one. The offense returns all but one of its starters from last season, so the new staff has the building blocks for at least a competent attack. But a dismal defense in 2016 could be even worse after losing five starters.
Prediction: Washington 48, Fresno State 17 (3-0)
Fresno State will probably keep on pressure early. The Huskies will still be easing into their season after the first two easy victories. But by halftime, Washington will already be running away with this game. The Bulldogs could give up over 600 total yards of offense by the end of this one, which will really get out of hand in the third quarter.
Last year, Washington downed Colorado 41-10 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara to claim the Pac-12 title. The Huskies, though, needed plenty of help from their defense to put up such a blowout. Jake Browning went 9-of-24 for just 118 yards, though he did throw two touchdowns. But his opposite number at quarterback, Sefo Liufau, had a much worse evening.
Liufau went 3-of-13 for 21 yards and three interceptions after returning to the game in the third quarter. He was helpless to do anything against the Huskies’ formidable defense. By the end of the game, the Buffaloes hardly looked like a top-10 team.
But their play throughout the course of 2016 merited Colorado’s position in the polls. A 10-win regular season was impressive, and they were definitive Pac-12 South champs. The Buffaloes, though, will have a hard time rebuilding on defense. That is doubly true after losing defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt to the same job at Oregon.
Prediction: Washington 38, Colorado 21 (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12)
Washington will still have some rust to shake off after facing little test in its opening three games. Colorado could even take an early lead at home. But eventually Washington will get into the groove, Browning and the backfield will begin to gash a green defense by run and by pass, and the Huskies will run away with this contest with a fourth-quarter surge in Boulder.
Oregon State could actually be in the hunt for bowl eligibility by the end of the season. Gary Andersen enters his third season in Corvallis with a veteran roster that showed improvement in 2016. The Beavers won three conference games after going winless in the Pac-12 in his first year at the school.
Of course, one of those wins did not come against Washington. Last year the Huskies blew out the Beavers 41-17 in Seattle. That result flatters Oregon State, who were down 31-0 at the half. Jake Browning threw three touchdowns, Myles Gaskin ran for 128 yards and a score, and the result was never in doubt.
That said, the Beavers are a team on the rise and could be a dangerous upset threat at home if UW is still in a lull at the end of such a stress-free September.
Prediction: Washington 31, Oregon State 21 (5-0, 2-0 Pac-12)
More likely, though, is that the offense is going to grab another big lead by halftime and coast to a second conference win. Marcus McMaryion should have a better game at quarterback for the Beavers, but he will be outdueled by Browning and the Huskies. Though they will probably be gashed for a touchdown or two through the air, the Washington secondary will get at least one interception off McMaryion to seal the win.
In 2016, Washington’s highest-scoring road game of the year came in Berkeley. On the first Saturday of November, the Huskies put up over 700 yards of total offense. Jake Browning threw for six touchdown passes and nearly 400 yards. Dante Pettis threw another TD pass on a trick play, while Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman each punched one in on the ground.
Much of the same defense is back for the Golden Bears, for better or worse. California went 5-7 in the fourth and final year for Sonny Dykes as head coach. Missing out on the postseason was the final straw, and now Justin Wilcox will look to rebuild a team that used to be a consistent Pac-10 middleweight that occasionally threatened for conference titles under Jeff Tedford.
By the first weekend of October, though, they will have already played North Carolina, Ole Miss, USC and Oregon. California could be beat up and ripe for the picking once again.
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Prediction: Washington 62, California 19 (6-0, 3-0 Pac-12)
Thus it makes some sense to expect a similar scoreline to last year’s game. Cal, though, does not have its own talented quarterback from last season. That could make things tough against a secondary that will be looking to rebound after playing at less than championship level at Corvallis the week before. Huskies fans will see what might be their biggest blowout of the year.
Right after the Cal game, Washington takes right back to the road to face Arizona State in Tempe. At this point the Huskies could be ranked up in the top three or four teams in the nation after a 6-0 start. Arizona State will likely be either 2-3 or 3-2 as they head into a bye week before playing the Huskies.
Last year, the Sun Devils gave Jake Browning nearly as much trouble as USC and Alabama managed to generate. Washington’s quarterback had plenty of time to throw for 338 yards and two scores, as Arizona State failed to pressure Browning much. The ASU secondary, though, picked off Browning twice in that November contest as they fought in vain for bowl eligibility.
The interdivisional showdown ended 44-27 in the Huskies’ favor last year. Once again Arizona State could be fighting for bowl eligibility. They could also be fighting for head coach Todd Graham’s job as he finds himself on the hot seat. The fact that this encounter comes earlier in the season does the Sun Devils few favors.
Prediction: Washington 41, Arizona State 26 (7-0, 4-0 Pac-12)
If you want to circle trap games on Washington’s schedule, this might be one. Sun Devil Stadium is not an easy place to win, by any means. Arizona State will be scrapping to restore itself to the postseason. But they don’t have the roster to run with the Huskies for a full 60 minutes. Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard will be able to get some yards against the UW defense, but drives will stall inside the red zone. ASU will kick multiple field goals en route to defeat.
UCLA is hoping to have a resurgent 2017 season. That is largely due to the return of junior quarterback Josh Rosen, who missed half of last year due to injury. As a result, the Bruins tanked out of bowl eligibility as they finished 4-8. They were just 2-7 in Pac-12 action, and are hoping for a quick turnaround in what is likely Rosen’s last season in Pasadena.
Last year the Bruins played the Huskies, that 2014 team took down Washington 44-30 in Seattle. But Rosen was not on the roster yet, and the few players that remain were not on the field for any meaningful snaps. These two teams will see each other effectively for the first time in this interdivisional encounter.
Like the Huskies, the Bruins lost five defensive starters, several of whom were high draft choices. They have a lot more question marks overall, though, and winning in Seattle will be a much tougher proposition than it was three years ago. UCLA, though, has the team to at least keep things close.
Prediction: Washington 28, UCLA 20 (8-0, 5-0 Pac-12)
The home crowd will be silenced for stretches as the Bruins take an early lead and perhaps even hold it into the half. But the tank will run out of fumes by the end of the third quarter. That’s when Washington, coming off its bye week, will claw its way back to take their first lead of the game at 21-20. Lavon Coleman will add an insurance touchdown at the end of a long drive late in the tense contest. Thus Washington will remain unbeaten through two-thirds of the season.
Last season, the Huskies knocked off Oregon for the first time in 13 years. The win was an emphatic 70-21 stomping in Seattle.
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On that early-October Saturday, Washington emphatically exorcised its inferiority complex against its southern rival. True freshman Justin Herbert started his first college game for the Ducks in the blowout on the road. And Oregon’s usually sieve-like defense was especially porous in hostile territory.
By then Oregon’s season was already beginning to crater. In 2016 the Ducks tumbled from perennial bowl participants to a 4-8 records. The result got head coach Mark Helfrich fired just two years after leading the Ducks to the College Football Playoff championship game.
Key parts of their offense such as running back Royce Freeman and left tackle Tyrell Crosby fought through injuries, and as a result the team sputtered.
Prediction: Washington 45, Oregon 41 (9-0, 6-0 Pac-12)
Oregon, though, returns healthier and deeper in 2017 as a result of last year’s downturn. New head coach Willie Taggart has assembled an impressive group of coordinators that could turn around the Ducks quickly. Things will be much tighter for Washington against their rival in 2017. But Myles Gaskin is going to have a long touchdown run that breaks open the game, and the defense will hold on after giving up a late score, to keep the Huskies undefeated at 9-0.
Things progressively get tougher for Washington in a backloaded second half of the schedule. The UCLA and Oregon games were close, and Stanford could be an even tougher out. After years atop the Pac-12, David Shaw’s team is angling to return to the top of the league. The Cardinal won 10 games again last season, and they get to face Washington at home this year.
Last season, things went ugly quickly for the Cardinal against Washington. It was a showdown of top-10 teams when the duo squared off in Seattle. It quickly became a mismatch. Stanford ran for just 29 yards on 30 carries against the Huskies front seven. The Cardinal were blown out 44-6 for their first of just three losses on the season.
In 2016, the win over Stanford might have been Washington’s best case for the College Football Playoff. The game could prove just as pivotal in 2016, especially as the teams meet much later in the year and will already have a good bearing on where each stands in the divisional hierarchy.
Prediction: Washington 45, Stanford 30 (10-0, 7-0 Pac-12)
Stanford and Washington meet in California on a Friday night after both teams played on the road the week before. The Cardinal travel to Pullman that first weekend of November to face Washington State. The Huskies, as already discussed, will be in Eugene the previous weekend. Bryce Love will get some tough yards against the Huskies, but Vita Vea and the defensive line are going to do a good job containing big plays. Washington will give up some points but move to 10-0.
After playing at Stanford, Washington won’t have to leave Seattle for the rest of the regular season. They return home to play Utah on November 18. The Utes are among the contenders for the Pac-12 South this season, and this game could potentially be a preview of the Pac-12 championship game in Santa Clara three weeks later.
This is also a rubber match in the interdivisional showdown, after Washington and Utah won on the road in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Kyle Whittingham has helped the Utes develop from a mid-major powerhouse into a consistent threat at the Pac-12 level. They went 9-4 in 2016, finishing third in their division. Instead of playing in Levi’s Stadium in early December, they played there instead on Dec. 28 in a Foster Farms Bowl win over Indiana.
With a roster that includes Oregon transfer Darren Carrington II, the Utes will field a dangerous offense in 2017. As is usually the case with Whittingham-coached squads, they should also have a disciplined defense.
Prediction: Washington 21, Utah 17 (11-0, 8-0 Pac-12)
This game has upset potential written all over it. Washington is in the midst of a tough stretch. They have the Apple Cup against rival Washington State to look forward to the following week. And as a result, Utah will get the jump as UW spots the Utes a first-half lead. Dante Pettis will catch the winning touchdown pass, and then the Huskies will stop a frenetic final drive to seal the win and stay undefeated ahead of the regular-season finale.
The 110th edition of the Apple Cup takes place two days after Thanksgiving in Seattle. Last year the game had serious implications, with the Pac-12 North title at stake. Washington racked up a 28-3 lead by the end of the first quarter. By the end, they won 45-17 to seal a trip to the Bay Area for the Pac-12 championship.
In last year’s Apple Cup, the Huskies forced four Washington State turnovers in Pullman to win their fourth straight in the series. Jake Browning threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns, Lavon Coleman and Myles Gaskin combined for three rushing scores, and the defense held firm against Mike Leach’s prolific squad to finish 11-1.
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This year the Cougars returns a veteran squad and could be in the hunt for the division once again. For the second straight year, this annual rivalry game could have a divisional prize rather than just state pride at stake.
Prediction: Washington 55, Washington State 52 (12-0, 9-0 Pac-12)
After the dud between the two teams last season, this year’s Apple Cup could be an instant classic. The Cougars will be looking to ruin their rival’s perfect season, while Washington will be hoping to return to the Pac-12 Championship with a cleaner record than last season. A back-and-forth battle should end in the Huskies’ favor at home, though they will sweat out several lead changes throughout the game.
Washington’s reward for finishing the regular season 12-0 will be a date with Pac-12 South champion USC. The Trojans will finally play in their first Pac-12 championship game since the league’s expansion, having recovered from years of sanctions stemming from the Reggie Bush case and the Pete Carroll era.
They were the only Pac-12 team to knock off Washington in 2016. Sam Darnold outplayed Jake Browning, throwing for 287 yards and two scores. Both quarterbacks threw two interceptions, canceling one another out. Ronald Jones II rushed for nearly 100 yards and scored a touchdown in the 26-13 win over UW in Seattle.
USC went on to finish 9-3 in the regular season. After Colorado fell big against Washington in the Pac-12 championship last year, the Trojans were selected to represent the Pac-12 in the Rose Bowl. There they won a thrilling comeback against Penn State to get to 10 wins, and cemented their place as a preseason favorite to take the league crown from the Huskies.
Prediction: Washington 52, USC 48 (13-0)
This is going to be another one of those high-scoring games where it comes down to which team has the ball last. USC and Washington could very well be playing for a College Football Playoff berth in this contest. Darnold will have a big game against the rebuilt Huskies secondary, but Browning will be just as prolific against USC’s defensive backfield. Petersen will play the clock more smartly than Clay Helton, and the Huskies will repeat as Pac-12 champs.
Final Standings: 13-0 (9-0 Pac-12)
With the revenge victory over USC, Washington will finish its first perfect regular season since their national title season in 1991. Despite giving up more points than last year’s unit, the defense will bend without breaking at all the right moments. The Huskies will likely rank among the top 5-10 offenses in the nation in most statistical categories.
Last year, the loss to the Trojans forced Chris Petersen’s team to cross their fingers and hope for the selection committee to come through. This time around, a 13-0 Power Five champion won’t have to sweat as much as the Huskies back into the College Football Playoff. This time around, they will get to play in a more familiar setting as well.
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Possible Bowl Game: Rose Bowl vs. Penn State
Even with the Granddaddy of Them All back up in the rotation of College Football Playoff semifinal sites, we will probably still get a traditional Pac-12 versus Big Ten format. Pasadena will take center stage the leagues’ champions square off on New Year’s Day for a shot at the title.
That champion is likely going to be either Ohio State or Penn State. Here’s guessing the Nittany Lions, led by Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley on offense and a solid group of linebackers on defense, are the last team standing atop the Big Ten East. After knocking off Wisconsin in the championship game in Indianapolis for the second straight year, James Franklin’s team will return to Pasadena to face the Huskies with a national championship berth on the line.