The Saturday Blitz staff goes on the record with their Big 12 football picks for the 2017 season. Can anyone challenge Oklahoma for the title this year?
The Big 12, unlike the other five conferences, doesn’t have two divisions. However, they do have a title game again for the first time in several years. While that should theoretically open the door for more a better chance at the College Football Playoff, don’t be shocked if the Big 12 champion gets bounced when they lose a rematch at the end of the season.
As the ballots came in, three distinct tiers emerged. Big 12 football appears to be that polarized in 2017. There are the true title contenders that have aspirations on a College Football Playoff birth. Next up are the decent to above average squads that could find themselves playing in the Big 12 championship game and even winning it if everything goes right. Then there’s the Kansas tier. Sorry Jayhawks, but there are a few teams that don’t stand any chance at doing much at all in 2017.
The bottom tier
Projected order of finish – Baylor (7th), Texas Tech (8th), Iowa State (9th), Kansas (10th)
We won’t spend too much time on these squads. The Red Raiders, Cyclones and Jayhawks in particular are longshots to make a bowl, let alone reach .500 in the conference. Baylor is more interesting. They have a lot of new faces on offense. However, if quarterback Zach Smith stays healthy they could win a shoot out or two and sneak into a bowl game if they take care of business in the non-conference slate.
The close, but not elite, tier
Projected order of finish – West Virginia (3rd), Texas (4th), Kansas State (5th), TCU (6th)
TCU finished 28th in the Amway Coaches poll voting, but the other three members of this group open the season as ranked teams. Each of these programs is a step above the bottom of the conference, yet it would take a near-perfect storm for one of them to sniff the College Football Playoff. Could a Big 12 Championship be in the cards? Possibly.
West Virginia’s inclusion in the early polls is a bit puzzling. The Mountaineers had a successful 2016 campaign but have to replace the majority of their defensive front seven this year. While they’ve been a historically solid defensive team, being thin up front in the Big 12 could spell disaster, quickly.
Texas drew some ire after becoming the only team with a losing record in 2016 to appear in the Coaches Poll. Why are they ranked? They’re Texas. Just like Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, etc. If there is hope, they’ll be respect by the pollsters. Nevertheless, Tom Herman‘s squad has a quarterback in Shane Buechele and a first round pick at linebacker in Malik Jefferson. The pieces are there for a special season in Austin, it’s just a bit of a tough ask for Herman to put them all together in his first season. Sell the Longhorns.
More: Projected 2-deep depth chart for the Longhorns 2017
A successful season by Kansas State is one that the nation is quietly rooting for. Head coach Bill Snyder is one of the good guys of college football that hasn’t been able to get his team over the finish line, not yet. With his health issues and the end of his career coming eventually it would be the storybook ending to walk out with a conference championship, and maybe more. His roster lacks the talent, but his teams always play hard and never shoot themselves in the foot.
If Texas, Kansas State or any of these teams for that matter, is able to win the Big 12 that likely spells the end of the conference’s playoff hopes. These teams lack the resume’s and respect that equivalent programs in the other Power 5 programs carry.
Big 12 Champion – Oklahoma (8 first place votes)
Also receiving votes – Oklahoma State (7), Texas (1)
Barring one generous first place vote for Texas, the Big 12 is decidedly a two team race. The Oklahoma schools are both high above the rest of the conference in almost every metric. Bedlam might very well decide the conference champion. Bedlam Part II, a rematch in the newly reinstated Big 12 Championship game, could prove disastrous.
This was the closest conference projection made by the Saturday Blitz staff. These two teams have elite quarterbacks and plenty of offensive firepower. Even with the loss of Bob Stoops on the sideline, Oklahoma won’t disappear quietly. It’s not a stretch to imagine one of these teams winning the first matchup on November 4 and the other winning the Big 12 Championship game. How ironic would that be if the Big 12 knocked themselves out of the College Football Playoff?
More: 2017 Game by game predictions for Oklahoma State
As for the individual teams, Baker Mayfield is returning for his senior season. A year ago he was in New York as a Heisman Trophy finalist. He threw for 3,965 yards, 40 touchdowns and eight interceptions a year ago. The Sooners will have to replace rushers Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon as well as fellow Heisman finalist Dede Westbrook. Look for tight end Mark Andrews and SEC transfer Jeff Badet to play huge roles in the passing attack. They’ll plug and play at the running back position and be just fine.
Oklahoma State will counter with what should be one of the most explosive offenses in college football. Mason Rudolph is coming off a 2016 campaign where he threw for 4,091 yards, 28 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He returns every major offensive weapon including receivers James Washington, Jalen McCleskey and underclassmen running back Justice Hill.
The defensive units for both teams have more questions, but this is a league predicated on throwing the football and putting up 40+ points a game. Both were among the top 20 offenses a year ago and will be locks to put up a show in 2017. It’s a close race, but our nod goes ever so slightly to the blue-blood Sooners.
Next: Top 50 CFB breakout candidates in 2017
What do you think? Can someone outside of Oklahoma surprise? Should we start buying stock in the Tom Herman hype train or is Dan Snyder finally going to find a way to get it done? Let us know in the comments or on Facebook or Twitter.