After most picked Clemson to win the ACC, the Florida State football team enters 2017 as the favorite and one of the top teams in the country entering the season.
For the past two seasons, Florida State lost at least twice to ACC opponents, both seasons included losses to Clemson. This season, Florida State has a stronger defense and an experienced quarterback, unlike in 2015 and 2016. In 2015, Florida State was upset by Georgia Tech. In 2016, the Seminoles were once again upset, this time by North Carolina.
Admittedly, the Seminoles face a brutal schedule. The team opens the season at Mercedes Benz Stadium against Alabama. The Seminoles do get Louisville and Miami at home but face Clemson and Florida on the road.
Despite a difficult schedule, Florida State should win the ACC and be in position to make the College Football Playoff.
Let’s take a look at five reasons Florida State will win the 2017 national title.
5. Path to the ACC crown
While it is true Florida State faces a brutal schedule, the toughest games are against non-conference opponents. Florida State opens the season against SEC favorite Alabama and closes the season against one of the SEC East’s favorites and the Seminoles’ biggest rival, Florida at The Swamp. The Gators have been virtually unbeatable at home since head coach Jim McElwain took the reins in 2015. In fact, Florida State is the only team to beat the Gators at home during the last two seasons.
Even if Florida State loses to Alabama to begin the season, the Seminoles often improve over the course of the season under head coach Jimbo Fisher, as was on display last season, as well as in 2012 and 2013.
In conference play, the team avoids Virginia Tech out of the Coastal division and plays Miami at home. Additionally, the team’s lone brutal loss from 2016 must travel to Tallahassee in 2017 (Louisville). Florida State has lost just two games at home during the last four seasons.
The lone road conference game that is challenging on the surface is Clemson. The Tigers have defeated Florida State the past two seasons, but this season Florida State has the more experienced quarterback and a better defense.
On paper, Florida State is hands-down the best team in the ACC. If the Seminoles simply focus on winning the conference, the team will likely earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. Because the team will have faced a challenging schedule, the Seminoles will be prepared for the difficulty of the College Football Playoff.
4. Experience at LB
Heading into the 2016 season, Florida State had two major questions: 1) How would quarterback Deondre Francois perform as a freshman and 2) How would the inexperienced linebacker unit hold up?
Going into 2017, four linebackers made at least eight starts last season and the position, like quarterback, has suddenly become one of the team’s strongest areas.
Matthew Thomas led the team with 77 tackles in 2016. Thomas also led the team with 10 tackles for a loss. Josh Sweat was third on the team with seven sacks. With DeAndre Walker gone, the Seminoles need Sweat and defensive end Brian Burns to step up and replace some of Walker’s productivity. Jacob Pugh, who finished 2016 with 4.5 sacks, is also part of the linebackers unit.
Rounding out the group is Ro’Derrick Hoskins, who started all games last season. This group took its lumps in 2016, especially while struggling against Louisville’s offense early in the season. However, by the end of the season it looked like a different group of players.
3. Growth of Deondre Francois
The ACC Rookie of the Year had the most passing yards of any freshman passer in college football last season (3,350). However, he had plenty of things that needed work. For example, his accuracy (58 percent completion rate).
College players often experience the most growth between year one as a starter and year two. Often, this is because freshman players are overwhelmed learning the playbook and unable to do much else to progress, but the offseason between year one and year two affords the opportunity to work on small improvements.
Related Story: Florida State Football: Projected depth chart for 2017
Francois showed enormous potential last season. The Florida State offensive line wasn’t especially good and Francois took a number of hard hits but showed a lot of toughness. The Florida State offensive line is more experienced and better overall heading into 2017.
Among returning quarterbacks, Francois is the second-best in the ACC behind reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson.
The Seminoles lost Travis Rudolph at tight end, but get George Campbell back from injury. Campbell redshirted last season due to injury, but, like Francois, Campbell has great potential.
2. Running backs
Fans have undoubtedly heard the hype surround Cam Akers, who was one of the hottest recruits in the nation just prior to National Signing Day in February.
Akers stuck with Florida State, while Najee Harris went with Alabama. Now, the top two recruits will likely see playing time against each other in the season’s opening game.
The Seminoles faithful was worried with the loss of Dalvin Cook. To be sure, Cook was a first-round draft selection and a special back, but then again, so is Akers. He probably won’t immediately replace Cook’s production but don’t be surprised if he ends up being the team’s primary back.
The team does have Jacques Patrick, who should compete for snaps. Patrick rushed for 350 yards last season as Cook’s backup. Cook set the school record for most rushing yards in a season (1,691), so he will be hard to replace. However, landing a commitment from Akers makes the drop-off feel insignificant.
1. Elite secondary
Florida State has one of the best secondaries in the nation. Derwin James was sidelined last season by injury, but he is probably the most talented player in the unit and will lead at free safety. He had five pass breakups in 2015 as a true freshman from the safety position.
More: Florida State Football: 2017 preview, predictions
Strong safety Trey Marshall started all 13 games last season, as did first team All-American cornerback Tarvarus McFadden. Opposite McFadden is AJ Westbrook who started eight games last season and finished with four passes broken up.
Marshall led the unit with 58 tackles. McFadden finished the season with eight interceptions and six passes broken up, as he lead the ACC in interceptions and led the team in passes broken up.
The Seminoles have plenty of depth at the position as well. Ermon Lane continues his transition from the wide receiver position. He had three pass deflections last season at safety. In limited snaps, backup cornerbacks Kyle Meyers and Levonta Taylor finished with 17 and 16 tackles, respectively.
Next: College Fotball: Top 50 breakout candidates for 2017
Having nine returning starters on defense and getting James back makes the Seminoles defense potent, especially in the secondary.