The Texas football team enters year one under head coach Tom Herman in 2017. Here’s a look at how the season could go with game predictions.
The Texas Longhorns parted ways with head coach Charlie Strong to end the 2016 season. Strong finished with a 16-21 record in three seasons as the Longhorns head coach. Now, Tom Herman takes over after going 22-4 in two seasons with the Houston Cougars.
Herman looks to bring his magic from Houston to Austin and turn around a football powerhouse headed in a downward spiral. They have struggled mightily since Mack Brown resigned as head coach in 2013. They are a long ways off of the team that lost in the BCS Championship game to the Alabama Crimson Tide in 2009. Texas was a 13-1 team then, they were a 5-7 team last season.
The Texas Longhorns administration hopes that Herman can breathe new life into the program and possibly take the Big 12 title from the Oklahoma Sooners this season. The Sooners are just one team that should challenge for the Big 12 crown next to the Oklahoma State Cowboys, West Virginia Mountaineers and TCU Horned Frogs.
The Longhorns return six players on offense and 10 on defense from last year’s team. Quarterback Shane Buechele should be in good hands with Herman at the helm. The defense should be, too, considering they’re led by star-in-the-making linebacker Malik Jefferson.
Their schedule serves as a stepping stone. Here’s a look at their game-by-game predictions for the 2017 slate.
The Longhorns open the season against the Maryland Terrapins. The Terrapins are a program going through a rebuild of their own. They went 6-7 in head coach D.J. Durkin’s first season.
The Big Ten has proven to be a tough task for Durkin so far. He lost four games in a row to the Indiana Hoosiers, Michigan Wolverines, Ohio State Buckeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers in consecutive weeks last season. They finished 3-6 in conference play and won two of their final nine games in 2016.
Maryland returns 12 starters (six on offense, six on defense) from last year’s team. They’ve looked to create some depth on the recruiting trail. The Terrapins raked in 27 enrollees in their 2017 recruiting class. Their class ranked 18th overall and fourth in the conference, according to 247Sports.
The Terrapins could use the fresh bodies considering their performance last season. They were held to 13 total points when facing ranked opponents a season ago. The offense ranked 89th in the FBS in points per game (25.8) and the defense ranked 75th in scoring defense (29.5).
The Texas Longhorns could draw those recruits out of the trenches early in a fast-paced Herman offense. Herman’s team averaged 40.4 points per game in 2015 and 35.8 points per game in 2016.
It is the team’s first meeting since 1978. Texas has shutout the Terrapins in three matchups so far.
Final: Maryland 20, Texas 35 (1-0)
The San Jose State Spartans almost gave the South Florida Bulls an early scare. They jumped out to a 16-0 lead on the Bulls before losing the lead and the game 42-22.
The Spartans gave South Florida all they could handle early and looked like they’d pull off an early upset in the AP Top 25. However, turnovers came back to haunt them as quarterback Josh Love threw three interceptions. They were also held to 109 rushing yards on offense in the game.
The offense had its bright spots, too. Sophomore wide receiver Bailey Gaither still had six receptions for 100 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the game. Junior wide receiver Justin Holmes had six catches as well for 77 receiving yards and a touchdown.
The rush defense is the biggest issue for the Spartans. Their weakness was exposed as the Spartans defense allowed 315 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns in the season opener.
They are coming off a 4-8 season under new head coach Brent Brennan. Brennan was previously an assistant coach on the San Jose State staff for six seasons before taking the head coaching position this past offseason.
Brennan is already off to an 0-1 start and with the Texas Longhorns in the way, the Spartans could be in an 0-2 hole entering Week 3 of the 2017 schedule already.
Final: San Jose State 22, Texas 42 (2-0)
The USC Trojans and Texas Longhorns meet for the first time since they met in the BCS National Championship in 2006. A lot has changed since quarterback Vince Young led the Longhorns to an upset 41-38 over the USC Trojans.
Since then, both programs have taken some steps backwards. Now, they look to get back on the right track as successful football programs.
The Trojans only return four starters from last year’s offense, but they’ve reloaded tons on the recruiting trail. They return their starting quarterback (Sam Darnold) and running back (Ronald Jones II).
Darnold took on the starting quarterback job last season when things were looking glum for the offense. He came in to start 10 games and throw for 3,086 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and nine interceptions on 67.2 percent passing. He went on to win the 2016 Pac-12 Freshman Offensive Player of the Year Award. The Longhorns will need to be on alert for Darnold, who has his eyes set on a Heisman this season.
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Jones II rushed for 1,082 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on 177 carries last season. He returns as the leader out of the Trojans’ backfield on offense.
The Trojans have some holes to fill on the defensive front, though. Sunia Tauteoli and Kavika Luafatasaga have the linebacking corps set for a productive season. The secondary is what needs to retool to keep pace in the pass-heavy Pac-12.
The Texas Longhorns will have their hands full on defense with the Trojans, but fans could be in for a shootout. The edge goes to the experienced Darnold in a shootout.
Final: USC 35, Texas 21 (2-1)
The Iowa State Cyclones are the first Big 12 game on the Texas Longhorns schedule. The Cyclones are a good measuring stick for where the Longhorns stand in the conference. Although they’ve got experienced offensive playmakers returning, they went just 2-7 in conference play last season.
Quarterback Jacob Park returns after starting the final five games of 2016. Park threw for 1,791 passing yards,12 touchdowns and five interceptions. Wide receiver Allen Lazard returns as well with after catching 69 receptions for 1,018 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.
The Cyclones defense has three junior college transfers coming in on the defensive line. Matt Leo, Ray Lima and Kamilo Tangomoa should help improve a team that allowed 31.3 points per game last season. Their scoring defense ranked seventh in the Big 12.
The new additions give them some much-needed depth on the defensive interior that allowed 218.2 rushing yards per game.
The Iowa State secondary is their biggest strength and they should be tested all game long by Shane Buechele’s arm. A 21-point outburst in the third quarter led by two touchdown passes by Buechele broke last season’s game wide open.
The Longhorns won last season’s matchup 27-6. They are 12-2 overall against the Cyclones. Expect more of the same from Texas as they open conference play.
Final: Iowa State 13, Texas 24 (3-1, 1-0 Big 12)
The Kansas State Wildcats serve as the Texas Longhorns first biggest challenge on the Big 12 schedule. The Cyclones should give the Longhorns a good look at what they need to work on but the Wildcats could pull off a victory, much like last season.
The Wildcats are currently the 20th ranked team in AP Poll and return senior quarterback Jesse Ertz. Ertz threw for 1,755 passing yards and ran for 1,012 rushing yards in 2016. He put up nine passing touchdowns and 12 rushing touchdowns to lead the charge on offense.
The rising senior ran for 78 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s meeting, on the road. He also threw for 171 passing yards and a touchdown. He was unstoppable in defeating the Longhorns 24-21 last year.
This season, the Texas Longhorns should be ready for him. With 10 experienced starters returning on defense and Tom Herman on the sideline, it’s hard to foresee Ertz going off against them again.
The Wildcats had the best scoring defense (22.3 points allowed per game) in the Big 12 last season. Although, Shane Buechele threw for 222 passing yards and two passing touchdowns on 70.8 percent passing.
It wasn’t so much the Longhorns played terribly last season. After all, they forced three turnovers on defense. They just couldn’t comeback from a 14-0 deficit. This year’s meeting should have a different outcome even though its a road game for Texas.
Final: Kansas State 24, Texas 34 (4-1, 2-0 Big 12)
The Red River Showdown in Dallas, Texas between two possibly top-ranked teams in the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns. The Sooners serve as the Big 12’s best team and the Longhorns should give them all they’ve got.
The Sooners put up 672 total yards of offense behind Heisman finalist quarterback Baker Mayfield. Mayfield threw for 390 passing yards and three touchdowns in last year’s 45-40 victory.
Things were close all game long with the Longhorns almost staging a furious comeback. Texas scored with 1:45 remaining in the game to bring the game within a possession but still, the Sooners prevailed.
The Sooners overcame four turnovers (two fumbles, two interceptions) last year to claim the victory but Texas should use those to their advantage this season with a more offensive-minded Tom Herman.
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Shane Buechele still threw for 245 passing yards and three touchdowns, but the Sooners offense was too much to overcome.
Running back Samaje Perine had 35 caries for 214 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Wide receiver Dede Westbrook had 10 catches for 232 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns.
The good news for the Texas Longhorns is Perine and Westbrook are gone to the NFL. The Longhorns defensive experience should be on another level by Week Six of the regular season.
The Sooners still return nine starters on offense, giving Mayfield tons to work with. It should be another close battle but Oklahoma should prevail once again.
Final: Oklahoma 31, Texas 27 (4-2, 2-1 Big 12)
The Oklahoma State Cowboys should give Texas all they can handle in this one. The Longhorns have lost two games in a row.
Quarterback Mason Rudolph was near perfect in last season’s 49-31 drubbing of the Texas Longhorns. Rudolph went 19-of-28 passing for 392 passing yards and three touchdowns in the route.
Wide receivers Jalen McCleskey and James Washington both had big days in what was a high-scoring first half of football. McCleskey caught four passing for 109 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Washington caught three passes for 91 receiving yards and a touchdown.
The Texas Longhorns’ defense had a long day as they gave up 555 total yards and six touchdowns. The Longhorns weren’t bad on offense in the game, either.
Buechele threw for 239 passing yards and a touchdown. Returning running back Chris Warren III had 106 rushing yards on 10 carries. Departed running back D’Onta Foreman had 17 carries for 148 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Although things looked close on paper, the Cowboys made bigger plays when it came down to it. Running back Justice Hill scored the first points of the game on a 30-yard run. The next possession, the Cowboys scored on a 54-yard pass reception by James Washington.
The Cowboys defense even blocked three extra points in the game. Coming off a loss to the Sooners, the Longhorns should be a whole lot more focused here. Don’t expect too many gaffes for a second year in a row.
Final: Oklahoma State 35, Texas 42 (5-2, 3-1 Big 12)
The Baylor Bears aren’t quite back to where they were as a program during the Art Briles’ era, but new head coach Matt Rhule has done well to get rid of the bad karma from it.
Rhule looks to rebuild a football program that was full of scandal and misconduct. In terms of talent, the Bears return 10 starters (five on defense, five on offense) on both sides of the ball.
They’ve yet to name their starting quarterback as of now. Quarterbacks Anu Solomon, Zach Smith and true freshman Charlie Brewer. Smith threw for 1,526 passing yards and 13 touchdowns a season ago for the Bears, but he also had seven interceptions.
Solomon is a graduate transfer from the Arizona Wildcats. A sprained knee limited him to five appearances in 2016 but he hopes a new home in Waco changes his fortunes. He’s threw for 6,910 passing yards, 49 passing touchdowns and just 16 interceptions in three seasons as Arizona’s quarterback.
The Longhorns will need to put on a better performance than last year if they hope to win again. They won 35-34 on a field goal with 46 seconds left in the game, but allowed 624 total yards on defense. The Bears ran for 398 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Rhule and Herman will be looking to have good rookie seasons in their Big 12 debuts, so expect more fireworks here.
Final: Baylor 31, Texas 35 (6-2, 4-1 Big 12)
The TCU Horned Frogs turned in a masterful performance against the Texas Longhorns in last season’s Big 12 finale. The Longhorns fell 31-9 in Charlie Strong’s final game as their head coach.
The Longhorns were outscored 24-3 in the second half of last year’s game. With a new head coach at the helm, Texas should be more prepared for this year’s meeting.
Texas was inexperienced in the running game last season and it showed here. They gave up 309 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns on the ground. Their talent and experience on defense should come through this time.
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The Horned Frogs won’t be a bad team in 2017, though. They return nine players on offense, including quarterback Kenny Hill. Hill will need to limit his turnovers this year, as he led the Big 12 in interceptions with 13.
Running back Kyle Hicks returns as TCU’s leading rusher (1,042 rushing yards) and receiver (417 receiving yards). Hicks scored 14 total touchdowns (12 rushing, two receiving) in 2016.
With three new starters on the defensive line, the Horned Frogs could take a step back on defense. They ranked fourth last season in the Big 12 in scoring defense (28.0 ppg).
The Texas Longhorns haven’t gotten a victory against TCU since the 2013 season. Their three-game losing streak should end here, in another tough road environment.
Final: TCU 24, Texas 38 (7-2, 5-1 Big 12)
The Kansas Jayhawks got their lone win in Big 12 play last season over the Texas Longhorns last season. They finished 1-8 in conference play and 2-10 overall but their lone brightspot was their win over Texas. It was the Jayhawks first victory over Texas since 1938.
The Jayhawks won 24-21 in overtime in a game where Shane Buechele arguably played the worst game of his young career. Buechele threw for 165 passing yards and three interceptions to offset his one passing touchdown.
It looked like Buechele was off to a good day after he threw a 75-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Jacorey Warrick. However, Kansas erased an 11-point deficit in the fourth quarter and tied the game with seven seconds left in regulation.
An interception on the Longhorns second play in overtime turned the tide for the Jayhawks in the end. Kansas went on to kick a 25-yard field goal for the victory.
The Jayhawks return just four starters on defense and six on offense. They don’t have a starting quarterback returning but a wealth of experience at wide receiver in Steven Sims Jr. and LaQuvionte Gonzalez
The Texas Longhorns can’t lose this game again, especially if they want to consider 2017 a relative success under Tom Herman. By November, they should have established a new identity and this game should be a relatively easy victory.
Final: Kansas 10, Texas 35 (8-2, 6-1 Big 12)
The West Virginia Mountaineers and Texas Longhorns met last season in a decisive Big 12 matchup. This year’s meeting could have championship implications once again.
The Mountaineers still haven’t won a Big 12 title dating back to the 2012 season. They were close last season, going 7-2 in conference play and finishing 10-3 overall. They lost to eventual champion, Oklahoma, who went undefeated in the Big 12 in 2016.
West Virginia could push the envelope this season with former Florida Gators quarterback Will Grier running the show. Grier had 1,204 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns and just three interceptions in 2015 before being suspended by the NCAA for taking a banned supplement.
He’ll look to reboot his career with the Mountaineers and be one of the best quarterbacks in the conference. Running back Justin Crawford will be a reliable option for Grier out of the backfield.
Crawford rushed for 1,184 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns in 2016. However, there’s plenty to replace on both sides of the ball from last year’s squad. The team returns just seven total starters (four on offense, three on defense).
The odds certainly favor the Texas Longhorns in the chemistry department. With a potential Big 12 title on the line, they will certainly look for the road victory. The Longhorns should eek out a close one here.
Final: West Virginia 21, Texas 27 (9-2, 7-1 Big 12)
The Texas Tech Red Raiders serve as a final home game on the conference schedule for the Texas Longhorns. By this point, the Longhorns could be considering year one under Tom Herman a success or a failure. Depending on their record, they could be playing for a Big 12 title here, possibly unseating Oklahoma’s hopes for a playoff berth.
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The Red Raiders lose their prolific quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, now a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. To make matters worse, wide receiver Jonathan Giles has transferred to the LSU Tigers after catching 69 passes for 1,158 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. He’ll sit out the 2017 season.
Texas Tech returns six starters on offense and five on defense but by the end of November, they’ll have a number of new faces producing for them. The offense ranked first in the FBS in passing yards per game (463.0) and total yards per game (564.5), though their 5-7 record didn’t show much of that.
Their defense finished last in the FBS in points allowed (43.5 points per game) and total yards allowed per game (554.3 yards per game). Expect to see a lot of freshman and transfers get playing time before its all said and done.
The Texas Longhorns should finish up their Big 12 schedule with a victory here. The Red Raiders aren’t bad, but their defense still has work to do to catch up to the rest of the conference.
Final: Texas Tech 21, Texas 42 (10-2, 8-1 Big 12)
End of regular season: 10-2 (8-1 Big 12)
At the end of last season, former head coach Charlie Strong voiced a strong opinion, stating whoever coached the 2017 team would win 10 games. I’m a believer that Strong is correct here.
Last years Longhorns weren’t up to par with the standards of the powers that be had in place, but 2017 should tell a different story. They only lost two games last season by more than two possessions.
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Granted, their lost to the Kansas Jayhawks was definitely a nail in the coffin, but still, the Longhorns are still a talented squad entering this season. Hopefully, their 5-7 record last season will be their last time going under .500 for awhile.
Tom Herman hasn’t had a losing season yet as a head coach. This season could be his best yet on a bigger national stage. Call me all in on Herman as the savior of Texas Longhorns football.