Josh Allen’s struggles reveal serious concerns, hurt NFL Draft stock

Josh Allen had another flat performance against Power Five competition on Saturday. Might he be overhyped among the 2018 NFL Draft-eligible quarterbacks?

Wyoming headed to Iowa City to face a Hawkeyes team hoping to contend for the Big Ten West in 2017. The Cowboys won the MWC Mountain last year ahead of Boise State, and were hoping to challenge against Iowa. With Josh Allen back at quarterback for one more season in Laramie, Wyoming had big dreams of an upset.

Instead, Craig Bohl’s team fell far short against their Big Ten counterparts. Without Brian Hill to balance the offense, it fell upon Allen’s shoulder’s to move the ball. Instead he was stifled by the Hawkeyes defense in a 24-3 road defeat to open the season. Rather than bolstering his stock among quarterbacks that will be eligible in the 2017 NFL Draft, Josh Allen might have sealed a place as a low-round flyer instead.

The 6-foot-5, 233-pound prospect checks off all the right physical attributes for a prototypical NFL quarterback. He has been hyped as a potential first-round pick. But with one last chance against Power Five competition looming when Oregon visits Laramie in two weeks, Allen has fallen short in his few opportunities against major-conference opposition.

Josh Allen will need a huge game against the Ducks to burnish his reputation against strong competition. Here are three reasons Allen might be overhyped among 2018 NFL Draft-eligible quarterbacks.

1. Josh Allen is a turnover-prone quarterback

In the loss to Iowa, Josh Allen tossed two interceptions at Kinnick Stadium. Trying to force things as Wyoming futilely sought a fourth-quarter comeback, Allen forced balls right to defenders. The second pick, coming with less than five minutes left, was a direct strike to Brady Reiff under pressure.

Last year against Nebraska, Allen threw five picks to the Cornhuskers. And just like against the Hawkeyes, it wasn’t as though he was the victim of bad luck. The interceptions were the direct result of Allen’s decision-making process. Just look at this throw, as he puts the ball behind his receiver and right into the arms of the Huskers defender:

Because he has such a big arm, Allen is prone to trying to force balls into tight windows. His bold gunslinging style helped the Cowboys win eight games and a division title last year. But it also was partly to blame in losses such as their triple-overtime defeat against UNLV. They also lost to rival BYU in the Poinsettia Bowl thanks to another Allen pick:

In the end, Josh Allen might be too brash in and out of the pocket to suit the needs of staid NFL teams. But that is hardly the only reason he might be overhyped.

2. Allen posts low completion rates

The Hawkeyes held Josh Allen to 174 yards on 23-of-40 passing. The completion rate was right in line with his production from the 2016 season, when he completed at a 56 percent rate over the course of the 14-game campaign. The Cowboys managed to get some big plays out of the quarterback, but just as often the Cowboys’ drives were prone to stall under his guidance.

At least he went over 50 percent at Iowa. Last year against Nebraska, Allen completed just 16 of his 32 attempts. That, of course, is if you omit the five completions he made to Cornhuskers defenders. In Lincoln, Allen was held under 200 yards as well. He finished that game with 189 passing yards.

In three games last season, Allen completed less than half of his passes. None were even against Power Five defenses. Colorado State held Allen to 7-of-18 passing despite Wyoming’s win in the rivalry showdown for the Bronze Boot. He completed just 14 of his 31 attempts in the defeat at UNLV. And in the MWC championship game, San Diego State atoned for an earlier defeat to the Cowboys to keep Allen in check on another 14-of-31 night.

Allen is the type of high-risk quarterback that seems to offer high reward potential to a pro franchise. Ultimately, though, he might just be high risk. He leaves too many completions on the table to work effectively in an NFL offense.

3. Allen has inconsistent performances

It is one thing to rip on Josh Allen for falling flat against Power Five opponents. Given that he plays for Wyoming, he naturally has fewer weapons at his disposal. That is especially true now that running back Brian Hill has graduated to the NFL. But Allen too regularly follows up a big performance with a disappointing effort.

His first year as a starter in 2016 illustrates this trend well. In last year’s opener against Northern Illinois, Allen completed 65 percent of his passes with and rushed for 70 yards with three total touchdowns. Then the Nebraska debacle followed, and he wavered between hot and cold for the rest of the year.

Last year, Allen had two games with four touchdown passes. He threw for three touchdowns in another three contests. But he was also held without a passing score in three games, and there is no real rhyme or reason as to when or why Allen fell flat.

NFL teams might salivate at Allen’s size, but the measurables in terms of game stats put those physical attributes into question. Some can be written off as playing for Wyoming, but Allen will have to play much better and much more consistently in 2017.

Next: Way too early 2018 First Round NFL Mock Draft

Good NFL quarterback prospects can come from smaller schools. But Allen will have to be much more consistent if he hopes to follow in the footsteps of other Mountain West players like Derek Carr and Andy Dalton to successful NFL careers.