Florida State and Alabama football played the first-ever meeting between No. 1 and No. 3 in a season opener. Here is why the game was actually meaningless.
There was tons of hype leading up to the showdown between No. 1 Alabama and No. 3 Florida State on Saturday evening in Atlanta. The showdown between the Seminoles and Crimson Tide matched the top team and the third team in the preseason AP poll for the first time in college football history. But in the end, let’s face reality. This game is going to mean next to nothing in the big picture of the college football season.
Despite all the rhetoric about how the College Football Playoff would usher in an era of high-ranked teams squaring off against one another throughout the season, this is the first matchup of top-10 teams from the preseason AP Poll since the last year of the BCS era. The combination of the novelty factor and the high rank of both teams means that the Seminoles won’t drop far in the rankings after the defeat.
Ultimately, nothing changed for either the victorious defending SEC champions or the vanquished ACC favorites after this non-conference showdown. Both teams will remain in the hunt for one of the four College Football Playoff spots. And the Seminoles are not about to be eliminated from the Playoff race by a quality defeat.
Sure, it was fun to watch two of the top teams in the country go toe to toe for 60 minutes to kick off the new season. But by December, the game will have next to no impact on which teams play for the national title. To demonstrate why Alabama versus Florida State is so meaningless, let’s look back at the past five games between top-10 schools that took place in recent seasons in this week’s Sunday Morning Quarterback.
1. No. 5 Georgia at No. 8 Clemson (2013)
Four years ago, No. 8 Clemson hosted No. 5 Georgia in the last meeting between teams in the single digits of the preseason AP Top 25. The two teams traded punches, tied 21-21 at halftime. A field goal in the third quarter broke the deadlock, Tajh Boyd stretched the lead for Clemson to 38-28 in the fourth quarter, and a late Georgia touchdown wasn’t enough to come back on the road.
Boyd threw for 270 yards and three scores, and added another 42 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Aaron Murray completed 20 of 29 for 323 yards, but he threw an interception without tossing any scores.
What happened next for both teams?
The Tigers climbed four spots to No. 4 in the first AP poll of the regular season. Georgia dropped six spaces to No. 11 after losing as the higher-ranked squad. Ultimately, though, the game meant next to nothing for either squad in the long run.
Clemson climbed to No. 3 in the nation before falling at home to No. 5 Florida State in mid-October. Ultimately the win over Georgia couldn’t save the Tigers, as that mid-October plunge to the Seminoles prevented Clemson from winning the ACC.
Georgia, meanwhile, climbed back up to No. 6 in the polls after falling out of the top 10. The Bulldogs promptly lost back-to-back games against Missouri and Vanderbilt to fall out of the SEC East race.
What did it mean by the end of the year?
By the end of the year, Georgia was unranked with an 8-4 record. They were bowl eligible but had no realistic shot at making one of the four BCS games, much less the BCS championship game. The Bulldogs finished third in the SEC East, and ended up losing in the Gator Bowl to No. 23 Nebraska. Every year there seems to be one team that was overrated heading into the year, and in 2013 it was Georgia. The loss to Clemson was just the first sign of a bigger issue.
For Clemson, the win over Georgia had little impact as an individual moment. The Tigers went on to win nine more games, finishing the regular season 10-2. After Duke lost the ACC championship game to Florida State, Clemson was selected to replace the BCS title-bound Seminoles as the league representative in the Orange Bowl. They surprised No. 7 Ohio State to finish the year… No. 8 in the final AP Top 25 after the bowl games, right where they started the season.
2. No. 2 Alabama vs No. 8 Michigan in Arlington, TX (2012)
After finishing the 2011 season with a win in the Sugar Bowl in overtime over Virginia Tech, Michigan entered the 2012 campaign ranked in the top 10 for the first time since 2007. They took on defending BCS national champion Alabama, who opened 2012 ranked No. 2 behind USC.
The two teams met for the first time since the 2000 Orange Bowl, and they did so on neutral turf. Squaring off at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, the Crimson Tide were up 21-0 by the end of the first quarter. Nick Saban’s team widened the lead to 31-7 by halftime. Defense prevailed in the second half, as Alabama rolled on to a 41-14 season-opening win.
What happened next for both teams?
Alabama vaulted up to No. 1 in the nation in both polls after taking down Michigan. But the voters seemed less impressed by the fact that the Wolverines lost to the new top team in the country. The 27-point loss resulted in an 11-point drop in both major polls to No. 19.
The Wolverines bounced in and out of the AP Top 25 and finished No. 18 in the final BCS rankings prior to the postseason. Alabama lost to Texas A&M at home 29-24 in early November, but by then they had built up enough of a body of work that they fell to just No. 4 in the BCS standings.
By the following week, as No. 1 Kansas State and No. 2 Oregon both suffered losses on the weekend before Thanksgiving, the Tide rose back up to No. 2.
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What did it mean by the end of the year?
Honestly, probably jack squat. Alabama could have knocked off a non-AQ opponent in a paycheck game and ended up in the same No. 2 spot they occupied at the end of 2012. The Crimson Tide won a second straight national title as they defeated No. 1 Notre Dame in the BCS Championship Game. As long as they won the SEC, it was nearly inevitable that the Tide would get a shot to defend their crown.
Michigan went on to lose three more regular-season games. They finished the year ranked No. 19 in the final BCS standings after going 8-4. They finished second in the Legends Division after a two-touchdown loss to Nebraska in Lincoln. Brady Hoke‘s team still got invited to a New Year’s Day bowl in Florida. Against No. 11 South Carolina in the Outback Bowl, Michigan was far better known for a porous line that allowed Jadeveon Clowney to become a star than their season-opening loss to the BCS champs.
3. No. 3 Oregon vs No. 4 LSU in Arlington, TX (2011)
A year after playing for the BCS national championship against Auburn, No. 3 Oregon entered 2011 hoping to take down a different SEC opponent to open a return trip to the title game. Instead the Ducks ran into the Tigers buzzsaw.
LSU was held to 98 passing yards by the Ducks despite featuring receivers Rueben Randle and Odell Beckham Jr. Oregon coughed up three fumbles, one which was returned for a touchdown by Tyrann Mathieu and Darron Thomas also threw an interception. The Tigers pulled away for a 40-27 win to open an undefeated regular season campaign.
What happened next for both teams?
As mentioned above, LSU took down the next dozen opponents on its schedule, including No. 12 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. The Tigers climbed to No. 1 by the beginning of October and remained there until losing the national title game in a rematch against rival Alabama. That loss knocked LSU down only to No. 2 in the final AP and Coaches polls.
Oregon, meanwhile, dropped 10 spots to No. 13 after its loss to LSU in Texas. The eventual Pac-12 champs climbed up to No. 4 again in November before falling to No. 18 USC. After winning the conference title, the two-loss Ducks represented their league against Big Ten champion Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. Against the No. 9 Badgers, Oregon won 45-38 and rose back up to No. 4.
What did it mean by the end of the year?
LSU could have taken down just about anyone on opening weekend and done fine in the polls. The Tigers could have knocked off a Sun Belt squad and eventually made their way to No. 1 in the country as an undefeated SEC champion. They received a nominal boost in the computer rankings that were a component of the BCS standings, but even then human polls would still have ensured they played for the title.
Oregon, meanwhile, won the Pac-12 and had a guaranteed pathway to Pasadena. As long as they won their league, they were playing in a BCS bowl. The Ducks ended up finishing just one spot lower than they started in the AP Top 25, while LSU finished two spots higher than they started. Had Oregon played a cupcake game instead of the Tigers, it might have had a slight impact on computer rankings but little else.
4. No. 3 Boise State vs No. 10 Virginia Tech in Landover, MD (2010)
Back in 2010, Boise State was coming off its second Fiesta Bowl victory and another 14-0 campaign. They entered the 2010 season all the way up at No. 3 in the nation, and had a showcase game against preseason AP No. 10 Virginia Tech.
Kellen Moore threw for 215 yards and three touchdowns, outdueling the Hokies’ Tyrod Taylor. Virginia Tech engineered a second-half comeback, but the Broncos won thanks to Moore late scoring strike to Austin Pettis with just over one minute left to play.
What happened next for both teams?
Boise State remained up in the top three for the next few months. Until losing in Reno to No. 19 Nevada in November, the Broncos racked up a 10-0 record to start the regular season. Chris Petersen’s team continued to hover just below a BCS championship spot but never was able to actually break into the top two.
For Virginia Tech, the losing had just begun. The following week, the Hokies dropped three spots to No. 13 ahead of their contest against FCS James Madison. Then the Dukes came to Blacksburg and dished out an even bigger upset than the Boise State loss. Only after falling to 0-2 in the standings did the Hokies drop out of the polls.
But they only stayed out for five weeks. Just as soon as they stopped playing smaller schools, Virginia Tech reeled off 11 straight wins to capture the ACC title over Florida State. The loss to Nevada, on the other hand, forced Boise State to share the WAC title with the Wolf Pack as well as Hawaii.
What did it mean by the end of the year?
It either meant everything or absolutely nothing for the Broncos. Boise State probably would not have been anywhere near a BCS championship position without knocking off the eventual ACC champs. The win burnished their already-stellar credentials. But the win over Virginia Tech ultimately meant nothing by December. Mountain West champion TCU finished undefeated and earned an invite to the Rose Bowl instead of the Broncos.
The Hokies finished with one more loss on its record than Chris Petersen’s team from their duel. But the ACC victors ultimately fared better than Boise State despite that head-to-head defeat. Entering the bowl season, Virginia Tech had climbed back up to No. 12 in the polls and the BCS standings. Despite still ranking behind Boise State, the Hokies earned an automatic berth in the Orange Bowl as ACC champion.
Thus it could be said that the opening game was doubly meaningless. The victor was punished for losing to a ranked Nevada team in overtime, while the loser was rewarded despite a second tumble to the FCS Dukes. The loser had an automatic berth in a BCS bowl waiting. The winner was forced to watch other teams play in major bowls.
5. No. 5 Alabama vs No. 7 Virginia Tech in Atlanta, GA (2009)
In a highly-anticipated showdown at the Georgia Dome, No. 5 Alabama squared off against No. 7 Virginia Tech. The game itself proved to be a sloppy affair as both teams eased their way into the season. After committing two turnovers and 10 penalties, the Crimson Tide needed a late comeback against the Hokies.
Down 17-16 at the half, Alabama rolled up 18 points in the final quarter. Virginia Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor was held under 100 passing yards by the Tide defense. Meanwhile, Mark Ingram rushed for 150 yards and a touchdown to begin what ultimately turned into Alabama’s first-ever Heisman campaign.
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What happened next for both teams?
Alabama climbed one spot to No. 4 in the next AP Top 25. Reaching No. 1 proved elusive for a Tide team that hadn’t yet built up its mystique under Nick Saban. They won every game during the regular season, then took down No. 1 Florida in the SEC Championship Game to book a spot in the BCS title showdown against Texas.
Virginia Tech, on the other hand, tumbled eight spots to No. 15 in the next AP rankings. By October, though, the Hokies had already climbed back to a position higher than where they started the year. Not even back-to-back losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina in late October could knock the Hokies completely out of the polls.
What did it mean by the end of the year?
It didn’t really matter who Alabama had knocked off in the opening game, when it came down to the final standings. As long as the Crimson Tide took down Florida in the SEC championship, they didn’t need any further data points to bolster strength of schedule. They could have blown out an opponent from the FCS and experienced much the same season.
Virginia Tech wasn’t punished too much for its loss to Alabama, as their return up the rankings meant over the first month of the season. The losses to the Yellow Jackets and Tar Heels kept Virginia Tech from playing for the ACC title. Those defeats proved far more costly to the Hokies’ season prospects.
Final Takeaways
In the end, season-opening games between ranked teams really have little impact on the way both teams play out the course of their schedules. By December, Florida State’s loss to Alabama will affect nothing in terms of whether either or both teams win their conference titles.
These statement wins really don’t make as much of a statement as they are given credit. Wins in the season opener do not determine whether or where a team goes bowling. They do not determine conference championships. It merely offers a greater challenge right out of the gate for both schools as they march into the new season.
The one thing that might be said is that they do have some impact on computer rankings. But we are also no longer in the BCS era, where that actually meant something. And they only affect the computer rankings if the high-ranked team remains highly ranked.
These days, though, computers don’t matter in the equation.
Participation in the College Football Playoff and the New Year’s Six bowls is entirely contingent on the decision-making process of a dozen human selectors. Computers have little to no influence on that decision.
So now that they giddiness of the contest is fading away after a night of sleep, temper what you think happened last night in Atlanta. The Crimson Tide will remain at No. 1. The Seminoles will fall somewhere between No. 8 and No. 10 in the AP poll after Labor Day weekend. Both need only to look ahead, as it is what happens in conference play that will really determine both teams’ fates.
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Nothing has changed for these two contenders. All it really does is give Alabama a slightly bigger cushion to sustain a conference loss, as they have in recent years. But that benefit of the doubt was already inbuilt for the Crimson Tide by this point under Saban. And if the Seminoles run the table — or even just win the ACC at 11-2 with one conference loss to a team like Clemson or Louisville — they too will be in the College Football Playoff.
Saturday’s showdown in Atlanta was fun. It was also absolutely meaningless in the big picture of the 2017 season.