Louisville Football: 5 Overreactions from Louisville’s win over UNC

Lamar Jackson showed why he’s the best player in college football in Louisville football’s 47-35 win over the North Carolina Tar Heels

Lamar Jackson looked like a Heisman Trophy incumbent quarterback on Saturday passing for 393 yards and three touchdowns adding 132 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns to those stats. Jackson was the Cardinals’ offense. He contributed to all of their touchdowns and all but 180 yards. The Cardinals will once again rely on Jackson for their offensive output.

Louisville, ranked 14th in the S&P+ rankings, are now 2-0 (1-0 ACC). UNC, even after the fiasco against Cal, was still ranked 38th by the S&P+. I can see the Cardinals skyrocket up the S&P+ rankings on the heels of that offensive performance.

In the first half, Chazz Surratt and Lamar Jackson had a passing duel like we haven’t seen since Joe Kane faced Tim Wayman in 1993’s “The Program.” Surratt looked like the next great ACC quarterback until an injury relegated him to the bench. Brandon Harris, the LSU grad transfer, took over. Harris started the Cal game but was replaced by Surratt. Chazz started this game 12 of 14 passing for 168 yards and two touchdowns.

The Tar Heels were up 28-27 before Jackson and Louisville scored went on a scoring spree and the Tar Heels’ offense went dormant in the fourth quarter. Now let’s look at the overreactions from the Louisville victory.

1. Lamar Jackson will be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft

Saturday’s performance, alongside with his Heisman winning 2016 season, is why Lamar Jackson will be the No. 1 overall choice of the 2018 NFL Draft. Jackson has thrown for 5,700+ yards and scored 44 touchdowns in two plus seasons. He’s also added 2,600+ rushing yards and 32 touchdowns to those stats. Jackson is 6-foot-3, 211 pounds of athlete. In 2017 his game has become polished and the Louisville offense looks like a pro style scheme NFL scouts will drool over.

Lamar spent more time in the pocket today and only ran when needed. Sure, he’ll have some designed runs in the inside zone read option game but so do most NCAA and NFL offenses. The Jaguars, who I believe will be picking first overall, need a quarterback and with their average offensive line will need one that can stretch plays and work well with their receivers and Leonard Fournette. Who can even compete with Jackson? Josh Rosen is a possibility and there are always guys who sneak up and down the draft board but none quite the athlete Jackson is.

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Spotting weaknesses in Jackson’s game is difficult. His ego is large and he has the confidence that he can make any throw and honestly, he can. Who else had that ego? Brett Favre and his career didn’t turn out too poorly.

Jackson will have to get used to the speed of the NFL game but all rookies do. He’s adapted and grown so much as a quarterback that I see him being the coachable student-athlete that turns into the Pro Bowl caliber professional.

2. The Louisville Cardinals will play in the ACC Title game

In thepPre-season I picked the Florida State Seminoles to face off against the Miami Hurricanes in a re-match in the ACC Championship game. FSU would win the first game, Miami would win the re-match. Since Deondre Francois went down with a season-ending injury I’ve changed my mind. I think Louisville represents the Atlantic in the ACC title game while Miami still represents the Coastal. Let’s look at Louisville’s schedule and potential losses.

Clemson

It will be a tough test but Kelly Bryant won’t out-score Lamar Jackson. Jackson offers too much firepower and the Cardinals spread the ball around to nine receivers and had multiple 100 yard rushers against a good UNC defense. Clemson has a better defense but can a new quarterback out-duel Lamar Jackson? Watson threw three picks against UL in 2016 in a six point Clemson win.

Florida State

See: Deondre Francois. Once he went down I don’t see FSU beating Jackson and the Cardinals. Especially with the offensive line allowing Deondre to be beaten around expect true freshman James Blackman to feel the same pressure.

NC State, Syracuse, and Duke aren’t ready to stop Jackson when he’s on and I think he’ll remain on for all of 2017. We won’t see a late season slump this time. He’s ready for the full season.

3. UNC is the best 4-8 team of 2017

The UNC Tar Heels will finish 4-8, but will be the best 4-8 team in college football. Much like Notre Dame and Oregon in 2016, UNC won’t be the type of 4-8 that has no talent. Larry Fedora will be back (like Brian Kelly) and UNC will have a nice year in 2018 once the new guys have time to get proper experience and Chazz Surratt cements himself in as the starter for an entire off-season. UNC will be much improved.

Programs need leaders and UNC has juggled starting quarterbacks over the past few seasons with Marquise Williams, Mitchell Trubisky and now the Brandon Harris/Surratt experiment. By the end of ’17 the Heels will have Surratt in full-time.

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This will establish Surratt as the leader of the program and give him the necessary reps he needs in order to improve and build cohesiveness. Where Clemson, Miami and FSU will lose some top-tier players and have to rebound after the season, UNC should be rebuilt and reloaded for ’18.

I’ll go on a limb and even say UNC will bounce back from 4-8 to finish with double-digit wins in 2018. After Jackson leaves for the NFL, the Cardinals will slump down to a 7-win season. Surratt has the escapability and athleticism of Williams while having Trubisky’s professional arm strength. I’d compare him to Justin Hebert from Oregon, a good passer just waiting for his teammates to catch-up to his ability.

4. Dazz Newsome breaks all of Ryan Switzer‘s Records

Ryan Switzer was drafted by the Dallas Cowboys in the 4th round of the 2017 NFL Draft after setting every UNC Tar Heels receiving record. The 5-foot-8 Switzer was an explosive college player that finished with 2,900+ receiving yards and 19 touchdowns and 1,000+ punt return yards and seven touchdowns there as well.

Dazz Newsome won’t have those punt return stats but will beat Switzer’s record yardage in the passing game. Newsome, a 3-star wide receiver out of Hampton, VA, is already getting attention from Surratt and is averaging 22 yards per reception.

In football, this type of sweep counts as a reception because the quarterback pops the ball up. Shovel passes are also receptions. An extremely athletic Louisville defense can’t handle his speed and cuts out in space and are left in Newsome’s dust. He’s also a bubble threat much like Switzer in the Fedora Run-Pass Option offense. Fedora wants to alternate safe throws with deep shots to keep the defensive backs out of the box against his run game.

It’s nice to see a receiver like Newsome getting involved as a true freshman. The Heels need a spark from the younger guys having to replace the firepower UNC lost this past season. UNC can become a perennial 8-10 win program and ACC Atlantic contender under Fedora as long as he can keep Surratt healthy and start recruiting Quarterbacks at a higher rate.

5. Bobby Petrino will parlay this season to coach the Gators in 2018

I’m going out on a limb here with my overreactions but that’s what this post is for. Jim McElwain will be fired from the Florida Gators and they’ll be desperate for an offensive genius. Not only will they want a coach that can score and coach the Quarterback with Feleipe Franks on the roster, but also a coach that can win bowl games and conference titles. If Louisville makes the ACC title game, even if they lose, Petrino will be up for a promotion and the Gators can out pay Louisville. Petrino is also a bit of a wanderer and could be looking to leave Kentucky.

What better place to head than Gainesville, Florida which didn’t flinch at Urban Meyer’s lack of program discipline. Win at all costs is the Gator motto and Petrino can back that up for them.

With a superior defense and ability to recruit Florida better than ever before, Petrino can win the SEC East on an annual basis and put up more competitive games against Bama and Auburn in the title game. They won’t be an also-ran in the SEC title game.

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Petrino has coached on the main stage of the NFL and has defeated top-tier programs in the past. That could, and should pique the Gator administration’s interest. Petrino to UF would be an intriguing move to say the least.