South Florida is the only Group of Five team in the AP Top 25. Here are three bold predictions for the Week 3 showdown between USF and Illinois on Friday night.
USF remains the top threat in the Group of Five to reach a New Year’s Six bowl. No. 22 South Florida missed a chance to play Connecticut in Week 2, as games featuring teams from the Sunshine State were canceled in advance of Hurricane Irma’s landfall on the mainland. Nevertheless, they remain 2-0 despite two underwhelming performances against San Jose State and FCS Stony Brook.
Their opponents in Week 3, Illinois, is coming off a confidence-boosting 20-7 win at home over two-time defending Conference USA champion Western Kentucky. The Fighting Illini held the prolific Hilltoppers under 250 total yards of offense, as senior quarterback Mike White ran for a touchdown but threw for just 238 yards and an interception.
The trip to Tampa brings second-year Illinois head coach Smith back to the site of his past job prior arriving in Champaign. The former Buccaneers head coach was also the linebackers coach for Tampa Bay under defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin between 1996 and 2000. In the second season under Smith, Illinois has the chance to make waves and take down an AP Top 25 team before they even get to Big Ten play.
Illinois has shown promise as Smith has adjusted back to the college game after two decades in the NFL. The Friday-night showdown figures to be among the most exciting games of the weekend, as two well-matched teams bring college football back to Florida. Click ahead for three bold predictions for how things will transpire between USF and the Illini leading into the weekend.
1. Illinois will be confronted by a lockdown USF defense
In a lot of ways, Illinois has begun its 2017 season 2-0 despite their offense. The first two games, against a mixed pair of Group of Five opponents, is telling. Against a Ball State team that finished 4-8 in 2016, Illinois struggled to put away the Cardinals. Illini quarterback Chayce Crouch finished just 10-of-19 for 145 yards, with a touchdown and a pick.
The numbers looked even worse against Western Kentucky. Crouch completed 14 of his 25 passes, but managed to gain just 107 yards. The quarterback managed to gain 44 yards on 12 carries, and punched in a touchdown on the ground. He failed to throw a scoring pass, but Crouch did toss a pick.
Western Kentucky did allow Illinois to rack up 193 rushing yards. But it took the Big Ten squad 50 carries as a team, and with that many attempts they still couldn’t break 200 rushing yards. On Friday night, USF will finally snap out of its doldrums. Just like another former Willie Taggart program, the Bulls will build upon the Hilltoppers’ statement win and one-up their competition in the Group of Five race for a New Year’s Six bid.
Charlie Strong’s Bulls will nab no fewer than three interceptions off Crouch, including one for a touchdown. USF will make its national statement with its defense, holding the Illini under 200 total yards of offense. That unit will build voter confidence as South Florida gains at least three positions in the AP Top 25, climbing up into the high teens of the rankings.
2. Quinton Flowers will dominate Illinois by air and by land
While Chayce Crouch has a miserable game against the Bulls defense, Quinton Flowers will make easy work of the Illini defense on Friday night. While they have contained solid mid-major quarterbacks Riley Neal and Mike White, the Illinois defense as currently constructed has never seen a talent quite like Flowers.
The veteran South Florida quarterback has started the season quietly, posting just 398 passing yards and 137 rushing yards in his first two games of the season. After losing the chance to rebuild his reputation in the canceled conference game at Connecticut, it will be harder to eclipse the 3000-yard/1500-yard barrier as a passer and rusher.
But Flowers will do his best to boost his stats once he returns to the field at Raymond James Stadium on Friday night. Though he might not quite double his season passing yardage, Flowers will top 300 passing yards and get at least three touchdowns in the air. Look for him to also have his first 100-yard rushing game of the year.
The time lost should make Flowers more motivated to capitalize and maximize every remaining opportunity. In his final season with USF, the veteran will make the most of this chance against a rising Big Ten opponent at home.
3. USF special teams will score a touchdown and win field position battle
Among teams with at least five returns so far this season, USF ranks second nationally with a 21.25-yard average on eight punt returns. Tajee Fullwood ranks behind only Washington’s Dante Pettis in individual return average and is only beginning to gain steam as a returner. The senior cornerback will score his first career punt return touchdown to help the Bulls run away with the contest over Illinois.
Fullwood will be fielding kicks from rookie Illinois punter Blake Hayes, who averages just 38 yards per boot so far this year. Meanwhile, South Florida can turn to senior punter Jonathan Hernandez, who averages five more yards per punt than his counterpart for the Illini. As a result, USF is going to win the field position battle.
The short fields for the offense could be the only thing that prevents Quinton Flowers, D’Ernest Johnson, and the rest of the skill players from building up bigger stats. USF also has two blocked kicks already this season, one behind national leader Hawaii. Illinois could miss out on even more points thanks to a blocked field goal or extra point.
Next: Week 2 College Football Playoff Projections
In the end, South Florida is going to make a comprehensive statement against a decent Big Ten opponent. USF will be better than their visitors in every aspect and every phase of the game. After getting dropped a spot in the AP Top 25 during their inactive weekend, the Bulls will come charging back out of the gates with a vengeance.