Pac-12 football teams face some tough tests over the next weekend. Which West Coast schools need to remain on upset alert heading into Week 3?
With conference play already beginning for some Pac-12 teams, it will become harder to qualify upsets between league schools. In Week 3, though, the only game between Pac-12 schools is the divisional showdown between Oregon State and No. 21 Washington State in Pullman. And the only game against an FCS opponent is Colorado’s home game against Northern Colorado.
Four teams head on the road to face Group of Five opponents. Two other Pac-12 teams have Group of Five teams visiting. Then there are the two teams, USC and California, that have Power Five teams coming to their stadiums, while Arizona State goes on the road to face Texas Tech.
Arizona State and California are the only two teams that are underdogs this week among those playing non-conference opponents. For one, a loss wouldn’t be that surprising after falling to a Group of Five school last week. For the other, it would mark the first loss of what has been a pleasantly surprising season.
Which Pac-12 teams need to be on high alert heading into their Week 3 contests? Click ahead to read this week’s conference upset alerts. (All betting lines courtesy of Sportsbook Review.)
UCLA made easy work of Hawaii in Week 2, as the Bruins set themselves up for a jump into the AP Top 25. This weekend, Jim Mora’s team takes its first road trip of the year as they head to Memphis. The showdown against the Tigers presents a tough challenge, as the few players that remain from the 2014 contest can attest. That year, Paxton Lynch and Brett Hundley dueled in a 42-35 UCLA victory at the Rose Bowl.
Now the Bruins are finally playing that return match, and they head to Tennessee as three-point favorites. Both teams are undefeated, though we know less about Memphis after their Week 2 game against UCF was canceled due to Hurricane Irma. The opener against Louisiana-Monroe told us that the Tigers were either rusty from the offseason still, or that they have seriously regressed.
Given how close the spread is between the Pac-12 favorites and their Group of Five hosts, the oddsmakers seem to think that rust was the more likely explanation. Teams have been able to gain ground on the Bruins this year, and the Tigers are going to take advantage with a pair of dangerous running backs in Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor Jr.
Both of the backs will finish with over 100 yards apiece, as Memphis gives UCLA a rude awakening. Rosen’s Heisman case will tarnish a bit as he tosses two picks that Memphis turns into points, including a late interception as the Bruins push for a tying score. Look for something in the neighborhood of 45-31 as a final result as the Tigers make a mockery of the spread.
After losing by 18 points at USC, Stanford heads even further south this weekend as they continue a road swing to start the 2017 season. This time the Cardinal head to San Diego to face the undefeated two-time defending Mountain West champion Aztecs. Stanford will open the game as a 9.5-point favorite, but they cannot get too confident after wilting against the Trojans.
The Week 0 win against Rice in Australia almost seems like a mirage at this point. It certainly obscured the fact that the Cardinal still miss having a guy like Kevin Hogan or Andrew Luck under center. Keller Chryst just is not that caliber of quarterback, and it showed as he struggled to complete 50 percent of his passes against the Trojans. Bryce Love looks like a legitimate successor to Christian McCaffrey, though, after rushing for 160 yards and a score on USC’s defense.
San Diego State is a legitimate threat to reach the New Year’s Six this season. They already have one win over a Pac-12 team after knocking off Arizona State last weekend. A second over a ranked opponent like Stanford would build up momentum potentially toward something even bigger. The College Football Playoff is not entirely infeasible for a Group of Five team, especially when they play a quality schedule.
On their home field, the underdog Aztecs have plenty of motivation to overrun their visitors from the Bay Area. In the duel between running backs, look for Rashaad Penny to rack up better numbers than Love as San Diego State not only beats the spread but comes away with another big upset of a Pac-12 program.
California has been riding on luck to start the season. Ross Bowers survived two interceptions in his first start at North Carolina, leading Cal to a 35-30 victory with 363 passing yards and touchdown passes of 10, 67, 54, and 20 yards. It was a statement win on the road for the Golden Bears in their first game under new head coach Justin Wilcox.
Bowers followed up that game with a relatively quiet home opener against FCS Weber State, finishing 20-of-28 for 200 yards with neither a touchdown nor an interception. California won thanks to a big day on the ground from Patrick Laird, who racked up two long touchdown runs and a third goal-line score to end the 33-20 victory with 191 yards on 12 carries.
In a showdown against another Power Five program in transition, Ole Miss, California will actually open the game as a four-point underdog. The Rebels play their first road game of the year effectively a touchdown favorite on the road, when you take home-field advantage into account. And this is despite sporting an identical 2-0 record.
There’s a reason the oddsmakers continue pushing up a spread that opened at 2.5 points on Sunday. Cal is not only going to lose, but they are going to lose big to give Wilcox a truly bitter first taste of defeat as a head coach.
USC has won both of its first two games of the season by 18 points apiece. The game against Western Michigan was tougher than expected, though, as the Broncos held things close into the fourth quarter. The first Pac-12 win of the season was also close for much of the game, until the Trojans pulled away in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, Texas enters its first season under new head coach Tom Herman hoping to continue its recovery from an opening loss to Maryland. Things got better for the Longhorns in Week 2, as they shut out San Jose State in a blowout 56-0 victory. The question then becomes which Texas defense will show up for the rematch of the 2006 Rose Bowl classic.
It must be noted that, though they are 1-1, Texas took a turn for the better once freshman quarterback Sam Ehlinger got his first career start ahead of incumbent Shane Buechele. The rookie threw for 222 yards and a touchdown to balance a powerful rushing attack. Ehlinger contributed 48 yards on seven carries as the Longhorns racked up over 400 yards and six touchdowns on the ground.
If Ehlinger continues to develop in his first start on the road, he will be in position to out-Darnold Sam Darnold, last year’s freshman phenom. Look for Ehlinger to run for 100 and throw for 250 as he gets three scores. After giving up a kickoff return to Darius Phillips in the opener, USC will give up another long return to Reggie Hemphill-Mapps. Texas, slated as anywhere from a 15- to 17-point underdog, could shock the country and rock the AP Top 25 with an upset in Los Angeles.
Speaking of that San Jose State team, they head to Salt Lake City this weekend to face Utah. This would be the longest of longshot upsets, as the Spartans come to Rice-Eccles Stadium as a 26-point underdog. But here are three reasons why the upset could happen:
- Utah is the most penalized team in the Pac-12. While San Jose State has hardly been the paragon of virtue on the field this season, they average just over half as many penalty yards given away as the Utes. If Kyle Whittingham’s team continues to give away yardage like that, it could prove costly.
- San Jose State ranks in the top 10 nationally in special teams blocks, with one blocked kick and one blocked punt already this year. They could get cheap points on a returned block in this contest to keep things closer than expected.
- The Utes could get caught in a trap game looking ahead to the beginning of conference play. Utah has a short week before their Friday-night showdown with Arizona in Tucson, always a tough place to visit. Coming in between the high of winning the Holy War over BYU and preparing for a visit to the desert, Utah could come into this one less focused than necessary.
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Even if they fail to cover the spread, it would be a monumental upset that would likely continue to keep Utah out of the AP Top 25. They will need to stay on alert lest they slip up in between big games and let San Jose State turn this one into a big game for all the wrong reasons.