Several teams played trap games on Saturday in Week 4. What constitutes a trap? Sunday Morning Quarterback breaks down the anatomy of a trap game.
On every weekend during a college football season, you can look down the list of contests and find trap games sprinkled throughout the schedule. In Week 4, there were games both early and late that could be classified as traps. Not every team actually gets snared in a trap game. But there are a few elements that help see whether a game offers the sort of upset potential that is inherent in a trap game.
Some teams survive the trap game, like Washington and Michigan did in Week 4. And sometimes the trap manages to take down a victim, as it did with Oregon in late #Pac12AfterDark action at Arizona State.
When we talk about a trap game in college football, there is no singular image that comes to mind. Traps are like snowflakes, in that each is a unique encounter. But just like snowflakes, they are all forged of similar ingredients.
Not every trap game will have every one of these ingredients. But every legitimate trap will have a combination of the following elements. Given the popularity of this term, let’s dive in and break down the anatomy of what constitutes a trap game in this week’s edition of Sunday Morning Quarterback.
1. A trap game involves a ranked team against an unranked opponent
When two unranked teams meet on any given Saturday, the stakes usually just aren’t high enough to classify that contest as a potential trap. It isn’t something that sneaks up on the radar, because it doesn’t merit the crossover interest that grabs the attention of casual fans.
And when two ranked teams meet each other, the quality of the opponent is too high to rank as a trap game. Rather than being considered trapped, the loser is perceived to have lost to a worthy foe. Showcases are showcases, too big to sneak up on anybody.
There are certainly qualifiers, as nothing involving a trap game is a hard and fast rule. Some, for instance, might consider Wake Forest’s game against Appalachian State a potential trap for the undefeated Demon Deacons. Not everyone can be ranked, after all, and sometimes a trap will involve a team that lingers outside the polls.
The critical factor for traps, then, is that they involve two teams that are perceived to be of different quality. When there is a number next to one team’s name and not the other in a particular showdown, that is usually a good indicator of such a gulf.
That can also manifest itself in the form of a Power Five team playing a Group of Five or FCS school, where the opponent’s quality is less obvious due to their obscurity. It is a game where most could easily point and say which team should win the matchup.
2. A trap game involves a suspiciously heavy underdog
The thing about a trap game, though, is that there cannot be too wide a talent gulf. When a team like Liberty takes down Baylor, for instance, it isn’t a trap game but an outright upset. A trap features teams perceived to be of widely divergent quality, after all, not necessarily teams that are actually separated by all that much in terms of talent and tactics.
Thus another great way to identify the traps in a given week is by digging into the point spread. When you see two conference opponents squaring off, and one is a heavy favorite over the other, take a moment to assess whether the two teams are really that far apart in quality.
Look at the teams’ respective records, as well as who they have actually played up to that point. In a game like Oregon against Arizona State, for instance, were the Ducks really 15 points better than the Sun Devils? Big wins at home over FCS Southern Utah and on the road at Wyoming distorted Oregon’s average margin of victory. Arizona State, on the other hand, had lost close games against defending Mountain West champion San Diego State and at Texas Tech.
Had the teams swapped schedules, they likely would have both been unranked and sitting at 2-1 in the standings. The disparity between perception and reality is especially magnified when you see two teams with the same record and similar schedule strength rating a high point spread. In games like No. 5 USC at California, both teams were undefeated and had played opponents of similar quality. Yet the Trojans were perceived to be 17 points better on the road.
Point spreads, it must be remembered, are set to generate betting interest in one direction or another. When they are artificially high, it helps identify those teams that are off the radar as much as it reveals an actual gap in quality.
3. Trap games take place on the road in a hostile environment
Sometimes a team can face a trap game on its home turf. It isn’t unprecedented by any means, as these ingredients don’t always mix together in the same quantities. Florida State, for instance, was caught in a trap game when they hosted and lost to an NC State team with a lower ranking but a better record.
But in general, a team facing a trap game is traveling into the teeth of that trap. When a team is playing at home, it has the advantage of friendly confines and a familiar environment. A trap, more often than not, is set when a team goes to hostile territory.
The combination of unfamiliar surroundings and an unwelcoming crowd are key elements to a trap game. Part of any successful trap is the fact that the favored team is never able to get into any sort of rhythm. Always on their heels, there is never a chance for the potential trap victim to get comfortable.
When a trap game scenario is in play, those in attendance are prone to get just a little bit louder and a little bit more disruptive than usual. No trap is comfortable, and by nature being at home offers a level of comfort that just doesn’t correlate to trap scenarios. Thus travel is an element found in almost every potential trap.
4. Potential trap victims usually are focused on a big upcoming game
Another essential part of a trap game is that there is usually something else on the mind. Something significant diverts a potential victim’s focus away from the task at hand. While a hostile crowd can certainly do that, there are usually other things pulling away that focus. Often a big part of that diversion is an even bigger opponent looming on the schedule in the upcoming weeks.
For Utah on Friday night, their trip to Tucson paled in comparison to next week’s visit to Salt Lake City by Stanford. Michigan had a rivalry game against Michigan State on their mind even as they faced Purdue in West Lafayette. USC has another trip to face a ranked Washington State team immediately following their close encounter against Cal. The Oregon Ducks, meanwhile, could be forgiven for thinking ahead to their own game against the Golden Bears at Autzen Stadium next Saturday.
In each case, attention was split between the present and the future. Focus is a critical element to success, whether in college football or in any other aspect of life. When focus is diverted, results tend to waver.
Given that they are young individuals still navigating the waters of adulthood, it is inevitable that a college football player’s focus would be susceptible to diversion. When there is the potential to be looking ahead to something other than the current week’s opponent, there is always going to be the possibility of a trap game materializing.
5. There is some sort of rivalry involved between teams in a trap game
Teams need not necessarily be each other’s biggest rival for a game to merit consideration as a trap. But there is usually some sort of bad blood between the two schools in question. A random school that manages to take down a higher-rated opponent isn’t necessarily a trap. Against, this is a garden-variety upset more than a trap.
More often than not, a trap game involves conference opponents or teams that have a long history of playing one another. If familiarity breeds contempt, it can also sometimes breed indifference. And from indifference it is a short leap to inattention, which is how one manages to wander into a trap situation in the first place. The team trying to lay the trap needs to have a reason to do so, and that is where the rivalry factor comes into play.
Usually it is a conference opponent, but that isn’t an absolute. Plenty of teams from different conferences have annual series against one another. The cyclical nature of college football means that two non-conference rivals are not always going to be field similarly-matched squads year after year.
A team can get complacent, as Oregon had after winning 10 straight against Arizona State. The same case could be made for USC against Cal (13 straight wins by the Trojans). Michigan, likewise, has historically had Purdue’s number on the football field.
The team setting the trap needs a sustained reason to want to set the trap beyond merely hoping for victory. After all, the snare is as much about knocking down one’s opponent a peg or two as it is about climbing the ladder oneself.
What upcoming contests have trap game potential?
Looking ahead, what looming showdowns have some of the ingredients that comprise trap games? Let’s look ahead for a moment and use the list of elements to help assess a few games that have trap potential on the upcoming schedule.
One game that ticks off most of the boxes in Week 5 is Washington’s trip to Oregon State. The Huskies were ranked No. 7 entering Week 4. They will almost certainly move up a spot or two in the AP Top 25 for Week 5. They will be favored by at least 20 points against the Beavers, who are currently 1-3 and nowhere near sniffing distance of the polls. Washington has won five straight in this divisional rivalry. Oregon State will be itching to reverse their fortunes against the Huskies. They would also ruin the Huskies’ College Football Playoff case with an upset at Reser Stadium.
Georgia at Vanderbilt similarly fits the bill in Week 6. It is an annual divisional matchup that features two teams who have historically gone in different directions. Georgia will almost certainly be ranked at the time of the contest. The Commodores will at best be among those receiving votes below the Top 25. The Bulldogs will be heavy favorites in Nashville, hoping for their 10th win in 11 tries against Vanderbilt. The Commodores could bolster their shot at an SEC East title with a win. More importantly, however, they could blunt Georgia’s hopes of taking the division in 2017.
It is harder to project out the further you get away from the present. After all, it is harder to know who will be ranked at the time of the game and who will not. But in Week 7, potential trap games include Clemson at Syracuse, Ohio State at Nebraska, Michigan at Indiana, and TCU at Kansas State.
Next: Projected Week 5 College Football AP Poll
Ultimately, not all upset bids are trap games. But all trap games are contests with upset potential. Remember the five key ingredients of trap games, and they become much easier to spot when they appear on the schedule.