The College Football Playoff is the ultimate goal for any Power Five team. Which of those teams that have a blemish on their record still have a chance?
Week 5 did a number on quite a few of the top college football programs in action over the weekend. Even teams that escaped with a victory like the Penn State Nittany Lions, USC Trojans, and Florida Gators, had to make a huge effort in the fourth quarter to secure victories.
We saw upstart teams like the Oklahoma State Cowboys, Mississippi State Bulldogs, and Oregon Ducks fall. Yet, maybe the most shocking loss of the weekend came from the Florida State Seminoles, who were upset by the NC State Wolfpack in their first game with true freshman James Blackman as the starting quarterback after the season-ending injury to star sophomore Deondre Francois against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the season opener.
Conferences like the SEC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 could easily send a team to the College Football Playoff that has one loss. Last year, the Washington Huskies, Clemson Tigers, and Ohio State Buckeyes all had one loss on their record. Ohio State did not even win their conference or their division.
It’s starting to get at that point in the season where we have to look at teams that are down but not forgotten. Plenty of teams have comeback from early season losses to get red hot in the second half. This season could have a similar result. Early losses can motivate some teams to play with some urgency for the rest of the year.
There has yet to be a two-loss team in the Playoff. Some cannibalizing of teams currently at the top of the AP Poll would have to happen for a two-loss team to get into the field.
Now, let’s take a look at all the one-loss teams in the country that still have a legitimate shot at getting into the Playoff.
This might seem like the most obvious choice on this list. Ohio State lost to what is now the No. 3 ranked team in the country in the Oklahoma Sooners. The problem is that the Buckeyes did not just lose to the Sooners, they were handled.
Ohio State cannot lose another game this year, or they will be out of contention for both the Big 10 Championship and the Playoff. Head coach Urban Meyer and the Ohio State faithful expect better of this football program.
They’ve taken advantage of some easier competition over the past few weeks including victories over the Army Black Knight and the UNLV Rebels. It gives senior quarterback J.T. Barrett to get back on track after a rough performance against OU.
Ohio State still has opponents like the Michigan Wolverines and Penn State Nittany Lions on tap. They’ll definitely get tested for the rest of the season to test their progress since the loss to the Sooners.
The SEC East is up for grabs if the Georgia Bulldogs do not play up to the level they are playing at right now. Georgia defeated Mississippi State last week, handily, in a huge 28-point victory at Sanford Stadium.
Tennessee and Florida are responsible for competing with the Dawgs at the top of the SEC East. Yet, the Gators got the best of the Vols in the first of a few big games that will decide the division this year.
If Tennessee’s fortunes had been a little bit better against Florida in Week 3, they would still be undefeated. However, Florida’s freshman quarterback Feleipe Franks chucked a Hail’mary that wound up being the game-winning touchdown for the Gators.
A cause for concern was the close win over UMass in Week 4. The Minutemen are not a quality opponent for the Vols, and they sported quite a bit of a hangover from the Florida game at Neyland Stadium over the weekend.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish notched their biggest win of the season so far against the Michigan State Spartans in Week 4. And, Notre Dame will always be a big enough brand name for the Playoff committee to vote them in with only one-loss.
The Playoff committee even considered Notre Dame a contender to get into the field two years ago when they were led by quarterback DeShone Kizer and had two losses on their record. They can still win out this year.
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However, winning out would mean that the Irish beat NC State, Stanford, USC, and Miami. Junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush and star running back Josh Adams would have to play a nearly flawless regular season from here on out.
Notre Dame does get somewhat of a break in Week 5 as they face the Miami (OH) RedHawks after facing three consecutive Power Five opponents. It’s a chance for the entire offense to build some momentum before facing the UNC Tar Heels.
The Auburn Tigers recovered well from a poor performance with a lot of turnovers against an FCS program in the Mercer Bears in Week 3 with a huge win over the Mizzou Tigers in their SEC opener in Week 4.
Former Baylor transfer quarterback Jarrett Stidham proved himself big time against a weak Mizzou secondary. Mizzou head coach Barry Odom did pledge to “change things” in Columbia, after another embarrassing loss.
Nothing came easy to Mizzou facing a team like Auburn that has talent on both sides of the ball. Since they were unable to get much pressure on Stidham, he was able to have his way. Stidham did not turn the ball over and running back Kerryon Johnson totaled five rushing touchdowns.
Few teams underwent a tougher game over the weekend than head coach Mike Gundy and his Oklahoma State Cowboys. The TCU Horned Frogs completely outplayed and out-coached the Pokes in a 13-point victory.
Senior quarterback Mason Rudolph did throw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns, but he also turned the ball over three times. It seemed like each time the Pokes got closer to tying the game in the second half, they did something to throw it away.
Gundy has proved in the past that the Pokes can come back much stronger after a loss. Yet, they cannot afford to even play close to inferior opposition for the rest of the season. It also means that they will likely have to beat either TCU or OU at least one more time.
The return of the Big 12 Championship Game makes it very tough for a team like Oklahoma State to make a run after losing a game early. Yet, they might get another crack at TCU to redeem themselves.
Michigan dominated the Florida Gators in the second half of their Week 1 meeting. Yet, head coach Jim McElwain was without some of his best players including star wide receiver Antonio Callaway and starting running back Jordan Scarlett in the first two games.
Now, Florida has won two straight since, including two key victories over SEC East opponents that were undefeated at the time that the Gators faced them. Although, the Kentucky Wildcats did take the Gators down to the wire in a 28-27 victory.
Florida continues to rely on the defense and ground game to win games. Feleipe Franks seems like the set starter behind center. It could pay dividends for Florida if Franks ends up panning out. Yet, aside from the game-winning touchdown pass against the Vols, he hasn’t done much.
This week, Florida gets a Vanderbilt team that was just ran by the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide by a 59-0 final score. Florida stays in SEC play until their final two games of the season against UAB and Florida State.
Ever since the West Virginia Mountaineers lost to the Virginia Tech Hokies in Week 1, they’ve been red hot in three straight victories. However, those three victories came against sub par competition, to say the least.
The first of those three wins was against Delaware State, an FCS program. The next two came against the East Carolina Pirates and Kansas Jayhawks (in their Big 12 opener). Now, the Mountaineers have a week off before facing TCU.
Quarterback Will Grier put together another solid performance with four total touchdowns and only one turnover. The running back duo of Justin Crawford and Kennedy McKoy combined for more than 225 rushing yards in the win over Kansas.
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The Oklahoma State loss puts West Virginia on even grounds with them and can even move them into the top two in the Big 12 if they defeat TCU. If West Virginia runs the table, they will be in the Playoff comes year’s end.
Mississippi State’s 31-3 loss to Georgia makes the LSU Tigers look really bad now. However, LSU brushed aside a tough test from the Syracuse Orange over the weekend. The Tigers face their final non-conference opponent of the season in Troy in Week 5.
It won’t be until Oct. 7 against Florida when LSU gets to face their next big opponent in the SEC. They need a huge victory in-conference to get back on track and get back up in the rankings. For now, they’re stuck behind Mississippi State.
LSU is one of those teams that cannot afford to lose another game if they want to be in the Playoff field or have a chance at winning their conference. Early-season losses can hurt the worst when they are against a conference opponent.
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Something to watch is running back Derrius Guice as he was held out of the Syracuse game. Head coach Ed Orgeron was likely resting him before LSU needs him during the tougher part of the schedule in SEC play.