The upsets started before the weekend, shaking up the AP Top 25 yet again. Here is our projection of how the Week 8 AP Top 25 will look on Sunday.
There were plenty of shifts in the AP Top 25 last week leading into this weekend’s slate. The fun began in a frenetic Friday where two top-10 teams tumbled down the rankings in upset losses on the road, and continued throughout the rest of Saturday’s action.
On Saturday, another top-10 team fell down the AP Top 25 as Auburn tumbled on the road against LSU. Meanwhile, Texas Tech and Navy fell off the bottom of the poll, and it looks like No. 19 San Diego State is also in danger of falling out of the AP Top 25 as they fell behind early at home against Boise State. These projections presume an upset for the Aztecs as Boise State regains momentum in the Mountain West race.
A few AP Top 25 teams are still battling out late-night contests in addition to San Diego State. No. 5 Washington and No. 23 Stanford are locked in #Pac12AfterDark action, and the projections assume that both will pull away in their respective conference battles against Arizona State and Oregon.
Since we have a good track on how late-night Week 7 games are going at this point of the day, let’s take a look at who will rise and fall on the next release of the poll on Sunday. With only two weeks before we shift to trying to read the College Football Playoff selection committee, here are our early AP Top 25 projections for Week 8.
Texas A&M will probably jump in at the bottom of the AP Top 25 on Saturday after surviving its trip to the Swamp. The Aggies took down Florida 19-17 in their interconference battle in Gainesville, moving to 5-2 on the season and cooling the seat a bit under beleaguered A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin.
Kellen Mond had his difficulties against the Gators defense, completing just eight of his 24 passing attempts for 180 yards and an interception. He did, however, add 52 yards and a rushing touchdown to pace the Aggies to victory. The Texas A&M defense was the winning unit for the team on its trip, making life even more miserable for Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks than the Gators could for Mond.
Franks finished the day with only 129 passing yards and two interceptions, though he did rush for 82 yards. As a result, A&M is back in the AP Top 25 while Florida falls to 3-3 in the SEC East. Now Sumlin’s crew returns to College Station, where they will have a bye week before three straight home games against Mississippi State, Auburn, and New Mexico.
West Virginia has bounced in and out of the AP Top 25 throughout the season. The Mountaineers will likely bounce back into the rankings this week after taking down No. 24 Texas Tech on Saturday afternoon in Morgantown. After playing close for much of the game, West Virginia pulled away for the 46-35 victory at home to move to 4-2 on the year.
Will Grier had another huge passing game for the Mountaineers, finishing with 352 yards and five touchdowns on 32-of-41 passing. After falling behind 35-17 in the third quarter, the West Virginia defense clamped down in the second half and held the Red Raiders scoreless over the last 24 minutes of the game. With 29 unanswered points, the Mountaineers reversed their fortunes in emphatic fashion.
Related Story: West Virginia Football: 3 Takeaways vs Texas Tech
The two Big 12 teams will swap position in the AP Top 25 this week, as Texas Tech falls out and West Virginia climbs back in somewhere in the 20s. Dana Holgorsen’s team closes out the month of October with games against Baylor and Oklahoma State as they try to maintain position in the conference race and the national polls.
Assuming that No. 23 Stanford continues to take care of business against rival Oregon in #Pac12AfterDark action, the Cardinal will move up a spot or two in this week’s AP Top 25 when it is released on Sunday. Stanford raced out of the gate, taking the opening kickoff and busting off big plays on the ground and in the air for an early lead.
Bryce Love continued his assault on the Heisman race with the first points of the game, rolling up 48 yards and a touchdown on the opening drive. From there, David Shaw‘s team looked ready to lay on a rout.
The Cardinal still have a great shot at snagging away the Pac-12 North from the Washington schools. Stanford has a bye this week before closing out the month in a Thursday-night game at Oregon State. November opens with back-to-back games against Washington and Washington State that will play a major role in deciding the division race.
Washington State is due to fall and fall hard in this week’s AP Top 25. Coming into their road game against Cal, the Cougars were all the way up to No. 8 in the nation. Nothing went right for Mike Leach’s team as they fell 37-7 in Berkeley. They didn’t just lose against the Golden Bears, but Washington State was exposed as a College Football Playoff pretender.
Related Story: Washington State Football: 3 takeaways from upset loss at Cal
Luke Falk was sacked nine times, threw five interceptions, and coughed up a strip-sack that was returned by the Golden Bears for a touchdown. No longer is Washington State among the ranks of the unbeaten, and as a result of how they lost and the opponent that took them down the Cougars will end up somewhere in the 20s of the poll this week.
A Pac-12 championship is still in play, but anything bigger than a New Year’s Six game is likely out of the cards. Washington State probably could have afforded a loss, but not to 3-3 Cal and not in blowout fashion.
Against an overmatched opponent on Saturday, No. 22 UCF solidified its position in the AP Top 25 with another blowout win. This time their victim was East Carolina, who came to Orlando and managed less than 350 total yards of offense in a 63-21 rout.
UCF scored just about every way possible. McKenzie Milton had another great day passing for the Knights, going 21-of-27 for 324 yards and two touchdowns. Five different Knights ran for touchdowns, while Tre Neal had a 50-yard interception return and Mike Hughes returned a punt 66 yards for a score. It was a comprehensive mismatch as the Knights ran away with victory at home.
As a result, Scott Frost‘s team will stay in the race to finish the season as the top Group of Five team. They are now one of just two American Athletic Conference teams with unbeaten records, holding serve with a USF team that took down Cincinnati. Next week the Knights head to Annapolis to face the Midshipmen in an interdivisional battle that lost some luster when Navy fell at Memphis.
Auburn crumbled on the road Saturday afternoon, becoming the third top-10 team to lose in Week 7. Gus Malzahn’s team went to Baton Rouge to face LSU in an SEC West showdown of Tigers, but instead of keeping pace with Alabama the visitors from the Plains dropped their first conference game of the season.
Jarrett Stidham was held to 165 yards and a single score as he completed just nine of his 26 passing attempts. Kerryon Johnson racked up 156 yards and a touchdown on the ground against LSU on 31 hard carries. But it was nowhere near enough to take care of business against the Bayou Bengals, and now Auburn will drop hard in a reshuffling of the poll.
Related Story: Auburn Football 2017: 3 Takeaways from upset loss to LSU
When the next AP Top 25 is released tomorrow, look for Auburn to drop at least 10 spots. Pollsters could try to shoehorn LSU ahead of Auburn in the rankings, which will make for an even more precipitous drop. A New Year’s Six appearance is still in play for the Tigers, but they are pretty much eliminated from the College Football Playoff race barring total chaos.
Michigan State maintained its place in the AP Top 25 on Saturday after surviving their trip to Minneapolis to face Minnesota. The No. 21 Spartans had little trouble with the Golden Gophers, jumping out to a 17-6 halftime lead and reaching 5-1 at the midway point of their year with a 30-27 victory.
Brian Lewerke was largely ineffective, finishing with 120 yards in the air on 9-of-18 passing and adding just nine rushing yards. LJ Scott was the catalyst on offense, rushing 25 times for 194 yards and two scores. But ultimately the Spartans took down Minnesota with defense. Michigan State held the Gophers to just 290 rushing yards. They also contained passers Conor Rhoda and Demry Croft, who combined to go just 16-of-32 for 216 passing yards. Croft, however, managed three touchdowns and an interception in the relief effort.
They will jump up into the teens in this week’s AP Top 25, and the Spartans are beginning to look like a possible Big Ten East spoiler. Games against Indiana and Northwestern close out the month of October, but things really heat up at the beginning of November as Michigan State will make or break its year in back-to-back showdowns with Penn State and Ohio State.
A back-and-forth season took another turn toward the positive for LSU. On a day when the Mad Hatter was back in Death Valley, LSU pulled off a 27-23 upset that brings them back into the AP Top 25 this week. Following on the heels of a close win over Florida, the takedown of No. 10 Auburn cools the seat under Ed Orgeron a bit.
Related Story: LSU Football: Les Miles to be honored at Tiger Stadium vs. Auburn
In a battle of transfer quarterbacks, Danny Etling outdueled Jarrett Stidham to lead LSU to victory. Etling finished 13-of-24 for 206 yards and a touchdown, while Stidham was held to 165 yards and a score on 9-of-26 passing. D.J. Chark caught five of Etling’s passes for 150 yards, and added a 75-yard punt return score that capped the win.
Now that they are back in the AP Top 25, how will LSU respond moving forward? The Tigers hit the road to face Ole Miss in Oxford next week. Orgeron’s crew gets a bye on the last weekend of October as they prepare for the annual Saban Bowl against top-ranked Alabama. If they can take down the Crimson Tide, could LSU open the door for a possible dark-horse bid into the College Football Playoff?
No. 20 NC State was on upset alert at halftime Saturday afternoon against Pittsburgh. The Panthers went to the locker room with the game knotted 14-14 at the intermission. But the Wolfpack pulled away after some halftime adjustments, scoring three touchdowns while allowing just one field goal in the second half to pull away with the 35-17 victory on the road.
Ryan Finley finished with only 198 yards in the air on 14-of-25 passing, but the Wolfpack got the job done on the ground. Nyheim Hines led the way with 135 rushing yards and a touchdown, while Jaylen Samuels added two scores and 68 yards. The team finished with 248 yards on 38 carries as they averaged 6.5 yards per rushing play.
With the runaway win, the Wolfpack move to 6-1 and are poised to jump a few spots in the AP Top 25 this week. NC State is 4-0 in conference play and gets a bye week in Week 8 before big showdowns with Notre Dame and Clemson on either side of Halloween.
South Florida will remain the top-ranked Group of Five school in this week’s AP Top 25 after dismantling Cincinnati at home on Saturday evening. The Bulls manhandled the visiting Bearcats, rolling up 212 rushing yards as a team in the 33-3 blowout. Veteran quarterback Quinton Flowers paced the victory, throwing for 184 yards and adding 80 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
More importantly, the USF defense held Cincinnati under 300 total yards of offense and just one field goal in the rout. With each passing week, South Florida has put up one impressive result after another as they look to make the College Football Playoff committee take notice.
While UCF kept pace in both the AAC and the Group of Five races, the Bulls remain the team at the top of both lists. They could move up a spot or two thanks to the chaos throughout the rest of the AP Top 25. A trip to Tulane next week offers a deceptively tough test ahead of the month-ending showdown with Houston on October 28.
On the road in Bloomington, No. 17 Michigan needed extra time to survive 27-20 against Indiana. The Hoosiers held John O’Korn to 58 yards on 10-of-20 passing, and an early Wolverines lead evaporated as the home side chipped away to force overtime.
In the end, Michigan relied heavily on its ground game to come away victorious in conference play. Karan Higdon racked up 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries. He shouldered the load for a Wolverines team that managed only 71 yards on its other 19 carries. Michigan’s defense came through in overtime, stopping the Hoosiers on fourth down to preserve victory.
Though they looked lackluster on Saturday, the Wolverines will still jump a spot or two in the AP Top 25 this week thanks to everything else that happened around the country. Michigan has a chance to reassert itself in the Big Ten race when they head to Happy Valley to face Penn State next week.
Washington fell behind early by a touchdown at Arizona State. The Huskies never pulled the deficit back, dropping their first game of the year in a 13-7 disappointment as they fell in the same trap as other top teams in the AP Top 25. There is little reward and a lot of risk from conference trap games like this matchup in the desert. Washington needed only to win by any amount to keep pace with the other College Football Playoff contenders. Clemson’s upset loss on Friday night opened the door for the Huskies to climb up into the top four, and Washington State’s upset made Chris Petersen’s team the clear favorite in the Pac-12 North.
Instead, Washington missed its chance to take control of its own destiny. Jake Browning struggled against the Sun Devils defense, while the ground game was nearly nonexistent for the Huskies. Arizona State pulled off its second home upset of an AP Top 25 team this season, following up its takedown of Oregon with an even bigger statement.
The surprise defeat to Arizona State will send Chris Petersen’s team spiraling down the rankings. Expect Washington fall 9-12 spots on Sunday, as they go from the cusp of a playoff spot to another flawed pretender dreaming about what might have been.
Clemson will no longer sit at No. 2 in the AP Top 25 after falling 27-24 at Syracuse on Friday night. Defense was the only thing keeping the Tigers in the game, as Kelly Bryant was eventually pulled after taking some massive hits from the Orange defense. Syracuse entered the game at .500 in the standings midway through the year, and they all but assured themselves of a bowl appearance if they can get two more victories in their last five games.
Related Story: Clemson Football: 3 takeaways from upset loss vs. Syracuse in Week 7
Clemson, meanwhile, will fall hard out of the top 10 of the AP Top 25. Like Washington State, who fell right after them on Friday, the Tigers lost to an opponent that won’t elicit much sympathy from the College Football Playoff committee for the loss. The Tigers won’t fall as hard as the Cougars, and a Playoff spot is still possible.
But at this point, Clemson will fall into the teens of the polls. Syracuse could also see a little love among those also receiving votes, but the bigger impact is by far on how the Orange shuffled the top of the rankings in the wake of the upset.
The Hokies hit their midway point of the season at 5-1. But Virginia Tech might even drop a place or two in this week’s AP Top 25 even though they were sidelined on a bye week. That is because their one loss came against Clemson, and the fall by the Tigers on Friday night will affect more than just their own ranking.
Virginia Tech has plenty of time to make up ground in the ACC race. The Hokies take on North Carolina and Duke in Blacksburg to close out the October schedule. November is where Virginia Tech will really make or break the season. Back-to-back road games against Miami and Georgia Tech at the beginning of the month will determine which team plays in the ACC championship game out of the Coastal.
If the Hokies continue to win, they will be in the top 10 of the AP Top 25 by the end of the year. Whether they can translate that into favorable position among the College Football Playoff selection committee is another question. The ACC as a whole took a ding when Clemson tumbled in Syracuse, and Virginia Tech won’t be immune from the tarnish.
Even though Notre Dame sat out Week 7 on a bye, they will probably climb up a spot or two in the AP Top 25 thanks to the chaos among the rest of the teams in the poll. While they are nominally affiliated with the ACC, the taint of Syracuse’s upset of Clemson won’t impact the Fighting Irish.
That is because their only loss remains a one-point stumble against top-four Georgia. As long as the Bulldogs remain undefeated, Notre Dame will also continue to climb with each new victory. The end of October will settle whether the Fighting Irish can emerge as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender.
After the bye week, Notre Dame remains in South Bend for the rest of the month. Pac-12 South favorite USC comes to town in Week 8, while NC State will try to win in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus three days before Halloween. If Notre Dame wins both of those tough tests, they will almost certainly be among the top 10 teams in the first CFP rankings at the end of the month.
On Saturday evening in Los Angeles, craziness hit the west coast as the prime-time showdown against Utah offered the chance for a Trojans comeback. Kyle Whittingham’s team came to the Coliseum and took a 21-7 halftime lead. But USC chipped away in the second half to pull away with the 28-27 victory that keeps the Trojans in place as the clear front-runner in the Pac-12 South.
Sam Darnold broke out with a big performance in the win. USC’s quarterback threw for 358 yards and three touchdown but finished just 27-of-50 passing. Ronald Jones II eventually found running room after a slow start, ending the day with 111 yards and a score on 17 carries. As a team, USC gained over 525 total yards of offense in a survival effort.
Utah still had a chance to win at the end, scoring the potential tying touchdown. But Whittingham elected to go for two and the win, and USC held firm on the conversion attempt. After climbing to 6-1, the Trojans still right in the running for a College Football Playoff berth. USC will jump a spot or two in the AP Top 25 this week, and if they manage to win out and claim the Pac-12 title they are going to be in the thick of discussion.
Things started slowly for No. 14 Oklahoma State at home against Baylor this weekend. The Cowboys were tied 7-7 after the first quarter, and it looked like the Bears might be in the process of generating another upset bid after playing Oklahoma close a few weeks earlier.
Once the Oklahoma State offense ramped up to full speed, though, there was no hope left for Baylor. Mason Rudolph went 19-of-31 for 459 passing yards and three touchdowns. Justice Hill led a deep backfield with 117 rushing yards and a score. And the Cowboys closed down Baylor’s hopes of an upset with two interceptions and a fumble recovery while holding the Bears under 400 total yards of offense.
Oklahoma State will probably push up to around No. 9 or so, breaking into the single digits in the AP Top 25, thanks to the chaos ahead of them. The Cowboys have a tough stretch looming, with road trips to face Texas and West Virginia to close out their October schedule.
Oklahoma played a game of two distinct halves against Texas in the Red River Shootout on Saturday. The Sooners looked like world-beaters in the first half, romping to a quick lead and remaining ahead 20-10 at the intermission. The Longhorns chipped away at the lead after halftime, but time ran out on the comeback bid as Oklahoma held on to win 29-24.
Baker Mayfield struggled after halftime, as the Longhorns shut down the Sooners offense. He finished 17-of-27 for 302 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw his first interception of the season. It was enough to win the game, but the Sooners could struggle as Big 12 play continues if they play like they did at the Cotton Bowl.
Related Story: Oklahoma Football: 3 takeaways from Red River Shootout win over Texas
For now, though, the win will push the Sooners up a couple of spots in the AP Top 25 as they return to the top 10 this week. That is less because of their own performance than the upsets by teams ahead of them in the rankings, but Lincoln Riley’s team will take the leap however they can get it.
Miami is going to be the top ACC team in the AP Top 25 when the new poll is released on Sunday. After Clemson’s upset on Friday, the No. 11 Hurricanes became the only unbeaten team in the ACC. That was possible only because of Michael Badgley‘s fourth field goal of the game, booted through the uprights for a 25-24 lead with four seconds remaining.
The Hurricanes struggled to contain the Yellow Jackets, who ran for 226 yards on the day. On offense, Malik Rosier went 23-of-37 for 297 passing yards and a touchdown to pace Miami to victory at home. Travis Homer was solid as the replacement for Mark Walton in the backfield, as he rushed for 170 yards and a score.
After the emotional high of taking down Florida State in Week 6, Miami held on to remain undefeated in a game that could have been a letdown. Now Mark Richt‘s team must turn its attention to a deceptively dangerous Syracuse team that just took down Clemson to pave the way for Miami’s rise in the conference.
No. 9 Ohio State romped to its fourth straight lopsided victory since losing to Oklahoma in a showcase non-conference home game in early September. The Buckeyes racked up 633 total yards of offense as they blew out Nebraska 56-14 in Lincoln on Saturday. Though they didn’t pitch a shutout, Ohio State left little to doubt as they shut down their hosts to move to 6-1 on the season.
J.T. Barrett looks like a potential Heisman candidate again after a slow start to the season. The Ohio State quarterback threw for 325 yards and five scores on 27-of-33 passing, while adding 48 yards and two rushing touchdowns on 10 carries. Even more impressively, though, the defense held Nebraska under 400 total yards of offense. Aside from 11 receptions for 200 yards and a touchdown by new single-game school record holder JD Spielman, the Cornhuskers managed almost nothing when they had the ball.
Ohio State continues to lurk as a potential dark-horse for the College Football Playoff and will jump up a few spots in this week’s AP Top 25. If they can thwart Penn State’s run and win the Big Ten title, a 12-1 Buckeyes team would have a legitimate case for the top four spots in the semifinals.
One of the 10 best defenses in the country put in another lockdown effort as No. 7 Wisconsin held Purdue to three field goals in a 17-9 victory on Saturday. The Badgers prevailed in Madison as they held the Boilermakers to 221 total yards of offense in the emphatic win.
Freshman sensation Jonathan Taylor continued his impressive rookie campaign, finishing the day with 30 carries for 219 yards and a touchdown. His hard running was complemented by 199 passing yards from Alex Hornibrook on a 13-of-18 performance. The Badgers did have three turnovers, as Hornibrook threw two interceptions and Taylor coughed up a fumble, but the defense prevented Purdue from turning those mistakes into touchdowns the other way.
Related Story: Wisconsin Football: 3 takeaways from Badgers’ win over Purdue
Wisconsin will jump at last one spot in this week’s AP Top 25, and they are hovering right around the top five. With Maryland and Illinois over the next two weeks, it would take a major upset to keep the Badgers from making it out of October undefeated.
TCU now stands as the only unbeaten team left in Big 12 play, after Texas was toppled by Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. The Horned Frogs stayed alive as the last team in the league with an unblemished record thanks to a runaway 26-6 victory over Kansas State. TCU’s win was fueled by tough defense that bottled up the Wildcats running game.
A Kansas State team averaging over 210 yards per game was held to one-third that mark on Saturday, as the Horned Frogs dominated the line of scrimmage. Kenny Hill had a solid if unspectacular performance in victory, going 27-of-37 for 297 yards without either a touchdown or an interception.
TCU will climb up into the top five of the AP Top 25 this week and are continuing to grow into a possible College Football Playoff team. Gary Patterson‘s crew takes on Kansas next week at home before back-to-back games against improving Iowa State and Texas teams. The November 11 date with Oklahoma in Norman could be a prequel to the Big 12 championship game.
Georgia had a slow start in their SEC East game between the hedges against Missouri. The Tigers were tied with the Bulldogs 14-14 after one quarter, but could not sustain the pace as Kirby Smart‘s team ran away with a 53-28 victory to move to 7-0 on the season.
Jake Fromm finally put things together passing the ball after taking over at quarterback for Jacob Eason earlier this year. Fromm finished with 326 yards and two touchdowns on 18-of-26 passing, while adding another 14 yards and a score on the ground. Sony Michel and Nick Chubb paced a strong team rushing effort, while the defense held Missouri to 59 rushing yards and 312 total yards of offense.
Georgia will vault up into the top three this week and could even leapfrog Penn State on Sunday in the new AP Top 25. Smart’s crew gets a bye next weekend before facing Florida on the last Saturday of October. The Gators and Kentucky are the only two teams left in the SEC East within sniffing distance of the Bulldogs at this point.
As one of just 13 undefeated teams entering the weekend, the Nittany Lions were the only ones to take their bye week in Week 7. It was a shrewd move, as Penn State looks poised to move comfortably into the No. 2 position of the AP Top 25 this week after sitting out on a bye and letting Rome burn around them.
The Nittany Lions have put up some impressive numbers to get to 6-0. After missing out on the College Football Playoff last season, they are the Big Ten favorite and have dominated with both offense and defense. No team has been stingier this year than Penn State’s 9.0 points allowed per game, while Heisman contender Saquon Barkley has contributed on offense and special teams.
They will need to maintain that productivity if they are going to remain unbeaten in the back half of the schedule. Coming out of the bye, the Nittany Lions end October with back-to-back games against Michigan and Ohio State. If they survive both tests, Penn State then opens up November play with a trip to Michigan State. That run of games will make or break the season in Happy Valley.
Top-ranked Alabama didn’t succumb to the upset chaos swirling below them in the AP Top 25. The Crimson Tide had the advantage of taking on a green quarterback when the Razorbacks came to Tuscaloosa. It probably wouldn’t matter who played for Arkansas, though, as the Tide continue to overrun anyone and everyone who steps in their path.
By halftime, Alabama had rolled up a 24-0 lead over the visiting Razorbacks. Arkansas was held to eight rushing yards in the first half, and young quarterback Cole Kelley struggled to find receivers in his first career start. Going the other way, Nick Saban’s crew racked up nearly 300 total yards of offense in the first two quarters. By the end of the game, that gap had extended to 41-9 as Alabama moved to 7-0 on the season.
Next: Latest 2018 NFL Mock Draft entering Week 7
With the teams below them in the SEC West all sustaining at least one conference loss, it looks less and less like the Tide will be significantly pushed for the division crown in 2017. A wire-to-wire run to a fourth straight College Football Playoff seems more likely than someone upsetting this outfit at this point of the season.