Six Saturday showdowns matched teams in the College Football Playoff Rankings. How will the new Top 25 look for Week 11 when it is released on Tuesday?
The opportunity for a lot of fluctuation in the College Football Playoff rankings was omnipresent in Week 10, as a half-dozen matchups featured a pair of ranked programs against one another. We also had the opportunity to watch multiple teams climb up into the Top 25 as they pulled off big upsets against ranked opponents.
Because it is a list formulated by a selection committee of just a dozen people, there is less consistency to the rankings than there is for something more formulaic like the AP Top 25 or the Coaches Poll. That means that teams don’t always have to wait for losses above them to move up. It also means that projecting where teams will land is that much more difficult, especially because the process is so opaque when compared to the BCS era.
That said, the fun is in the guesswork. Chaos continues to swirl around the 2017 college football season week after eventful week, and any number of teams would be worthy entrants into the College Football Playoff field. The top four this week all held serve, but will they all stay in their same position when the new rankings are released on Tuesday?
While we wait for final results to come in from late-night action, let’s dive in and take a stab at seeing where everyone will fall when the dust settles on Week 10 and we get ready for a new week. Keep reading for our College Football Playoff Top 25 projections for Week 11.
West Virginia took down one of the hottest teams in the country on Saturday, surviving a visit by No. 15 Iowa State to win 20-16 and reach bowl eligibility. In what turned out to be a defensive struggle, the Mountaineers earned a critical tiebreaker over the Cyclones as they kept themselves in the Big 12 title race.
Will Grier went 20-of-25 for 316 yards and two touchdowns against Iowa State. Justin Crawford led West Virginia with 102 rushing yards, while Kennedy McKoy added another 60 yards on the ground. The Mountaineers defense came up big as well, holding Iowa State to only 350 total yards of offense in a low-scoring battle.
With the win, West Virginia should slot into the College Football Playoff Top 25 this week just ahead of the Cyclones team they just beat. A trip to Kansas State looms in Week 11, with Texas and Oklahoma rounding out the regular-season slate. If the Mountaineers win out, they’ll be playing in the Big 12 championship game.
Michigan played its way into the final spot of the College Football Playoff rankings thanks to a convincing 33-10 win over Minnesota on Saturday evening. In a game delayed by inclement weather, the Wolverines took down the Golden Gophers to earn their seventh win of the season and stay in the New Year’s Six bowl hunt.
Neither team really threw the ball much, but Michigan was far more effective rushing the ball. Karan Higdon racked up 200 rushing yards on 16 carries, punching in two touchdowns in the process. Chris Evans added two more scores and 191 yards on 13 carries. On the other side of the ball, the Wolverines defense held Minnesota to 90 rushing yards on 44 carries to ensure the win.
Michigan would still need tons of help to play for the Big Ten title. They close out the year with trips to Maryland and top-10 Wisconsin before taking on Ohio State in their annual rivalry game on Thanksgiving weekend. Jim Harbaugh‘s team would be an attractive option for one of the major bowl games if the Wolverines keep winning.
Memphis stayed in the hunt among Group of Five teams aiming for a New Year’s Six berth in Week 11. On Friday night, the Tigers kicked off the weekend with a 41-14 drubbing of Tulsa on the road to improve to 8-1 on the season. It was another critical conference victory for Mike Norvell’s crew as they aim for a spot in the American Athletic Conference championship game.
Riley Ferguson threw for 298 yards and four touchdowns. Darrell Henderson rushed for 123 yards on just 14 carries, averaging 8.8 yards per carry along the way. And the defense held the Golden Hurricane to just 302 total yards of offense.
With the win, Memphis remains in the race for the Group of Five’s berth in a New Year’s Six bowl. After opening at No. 23 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, the Tigers could move up a spot or two in this week’s rankings. Now on a five-game winning streak, Memphis faces SMU in Week 11 with a chance to lock up the division title.
NC State entered the weekend atop the ACC Atlantic standings, but a 38-31 loss at home to No. 4 Clemson hurt their chances of playing for a conference title. Even then, the Wolfpack acquitted themselves well in defeat and should hold on to a spot in the College Football Playoff Top 25 when the new rankings are released on Thursday.
Ryan Finley carved up the Tigers through the air, finishing with 338 yards and three touchdowns on 31-of-50 passing. Kelvin Harmon hauled in eight of those passes for 155 receiving yards and a score. NC State’s defense held Kelly Bryant under 200 passing yards, but they had few answers for jack-of-all-trades Ray-Ray McCloud.
Now Dave Doeren’s team is left to pick up the pieces in the coming weeks. They hit the road over the next two weeks for showdowns with Boston College and Wake Forest before returning home for the regular-season finale on Thanksgiving Saturday against rival North Carolina. A New Year’s Six game is still in play for the Wolfpack, but the College Football Playoff is now out of reach.
The magic of October wore off in Week 10, as Iowa State dropped their first game in over a month against West Virginia in Morgantown. The Cyclones fought gamely to pull off the second-half comeback. But the bid fell short as the No. 15 team in the College Football Playoff rankings stumbled in a 20-16 road loss on Saturday.
The Cyclones fell behind 20-3 in the first half, though the defense clamped down and prevented the Mountaineers from scoring in the second half. Even then, they gave up 316 yards and two touchdowns to West Virginia quarterback Will Grier. Iowa State’s offense was forced to kick field goals when they needed touchdowns, as Kyle Kempt threw for 249 yards but only one touchdown.
The team with the longest conference title drought in the FBS might have lost its best chance in decades to claim a league crown as a result. Iowa State won’t drop completely out of the College Football Playoff Top 25 this week, but they have an uphill slog to get back into the Big 12 race after losing in Week 10.
With a massive 55-24 upset of No. 6 Ohio State on Saturday, Iowa played its way into the College Football Playoff Top 25. The Hawkeyes rolled up a convincing upset that pushed them to bowl eligibility. In the process, they also sent the Buckeyes tumbling down the rankings on a day when everything went right in Iowa City for the home side.
Nathan Stanley threw for just 226 yards, but he racked up five touchdowns without an interception in the blowout win. Akrum Wadley rushed for 118 yards, as the Hawkeyes finished with 243 rushing yards as a team. The Iowa defense was stout, forcing four J.T. Barrett interceptions and holding a formidable Buckeyes offense under 400 total yards.
A shot at the Big Ten West title is out of reach since the Hawkeyes sit 3-3 in conference play. But they can play spoiler beginning with next week’s trip to Madison to face top-10 Wisconsin. Purdue and Nebraska close out the regular season, and a 10-win season is still in reach for Kirk Ferentz’s team if they win out through their bowl game.
Washington State moved to 8-2 and kept themselves in the thick of the Pac-12 North race thanks to a tense 24-21 takedown of No. 21 Stanford at home on Saturday. After getting benched in the Week 9 loss to Arizona, Luke Falk rebounded with yet another big passing day as the Cougars prevailed in Pullman.
Falk finished with 337 yards and three touchdowns, providing most of Washington State’s offensive production as per usual. The Cougars defense came up huge, holding Heisman hopeful Bryce Love to just 69 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. New Stanford starting quarterback K.J. Costello went just 9-of-20 for 105 yards and an interception through the air.
Washington State kept pace with rival Washington in the Pac-12 North. If they win next week on the road at Utah, the Cougars will set up a second straight Apple Cup showdown that will decide the division. While a spot in the College Football Playoff will be hard to secure, Wazzu is finding its way back into the thick of the Top 25 and could be on its way to a New Year’s Six game this year.
Virginia Tech lost its chance to get back to the ACC championship game, falling 28-10 against No. 10 Miami on Saturday evening. The Hokies are now two games behind the Hurricanes in the ACC Coastal standings with only two conferences games left for Miami. But they will not fall all the way out of the College Football Playoff rankings after dropping to 7-2 on the year.
Josh Jackson went 20-of-32 for 197 yards, but he failed to reach the endzone in the air while throwing two interceptions. The Hokies were held to an average of 2.4 yards per carry, finishing with just 102 yards as a team on 43 runs. Virginia Tech’s defense held Miami’s Malik Rosier under 50 percent passing, but could not turn three interceptions into enough points to stay in the contest.
Now the Hokies have to rebound quickly, with conference tilts against Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Virginia still on the schedule. Justin Fuente‘s team could still play its way into a New Year’s Six bowl game, but that is the ceiling at this point. A 10-2 record would likely put the Hokies into one of the non-semifinal bowl games.
Penn State dropped its second straight on Saturday, falling 27-24 against No. 24 Michigan State on a last-second field goal in East Lansing. Their game against the Spartans included a delay of over three hours as inclement weather passed over Spartan Stadium, and the pause seemed to take the wind out of Penn State’s sails.
For the sixth time in nine games, Saquon Barkley was held under 100 rushing yards. Trace McSorley threw for 381 yards and three touchdowns, but he also tossed three interceptions that killed any chance of victory. Penn State’s defense gave up 400 passing yards to Brian Lewerke on the road, on a day when aerial attacks took precedence.
The loss pretty much killed any chance of repeating as Big Ten champions. With the College Football Playoff out of play, Penn State will now be playing to reach a New Year’s Six bowl. James Franklin‘s team faces an easier road to close out the regular season, with home games against Rutgers and Nebraska over the next fortnight before traveling to Maryland on Thanksgiving weekend.
Michigan State is poised to surge up the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday after taking down No. 7 Penn State 27-24 on a weather-delayed game in East Lansing. With the narrow victory over the Nittany Lions, the Spartans now control their own destiny in the Big Ten East and could play for an improbable conference title this season if they win out.
Brian Lewerke had another big day for the Spartans, throwing for 400 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Receiver Felton Davis put up huge numbers, hauling in 12 catches for 181 yards and a score. Michigan State’s defense held former Heisman frontrunner Saquon Barkley in check, giving up just 63 yard to the dynamic running back. A last-second field goal from Matt Coghlin sealed the deal.
Next weekend, Mark Dantonio‘s team heads to Columbus to play Ohio State in a game that will likely settle the division race. If they get past the Buckeyes, all that will stand between the Spartans and a trip to Indianapolis are winnable contests against Maryland and Rutgers. The Spartans could even be a dark-horse in the College Football Playoff race if they win out.
UCF stayed among the ranks of the undefeated in Week 10, pulling out a 31-24 victory at SMU to move to 8-0 on the season. The No. 18 Knights will continue to be the top-ranked Group of Five team in the College Football Playoff Top 25. If they keep winning, they will be in a major bowl game.
McKenzie Milton piled up big yardage through the air, finishing with 412 yards and a touchdown on 12-of-40 passing. But Milton also threw two interceptions, hurting his Heisman bid in the process. Adrian Killins Jr. offered great balance on the ground, rushing for 145 yards and two scores to pace the Knights to victory.
UCF should move up a spot or two in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings thanks to their perfect record to date. The Knights now need to take out UConn, Temple, and rival South Florida in their final three games to play for the American Athletic Conference title. If they win the AAC crown this year, a New Year’s Six bowl is the floor for Scott Frost‘s team. If chaos continues to ensue all around, a perfect record could even yield a Playoff bid.
Mississippi State was on upset alert for much of the day against woebegone UMass before pulling away for a 34-23 victory. The Bulldogs struggled to put away the Minutemen as they committed three turnovers, but ultimately survived at home to move to 7-2. It was an ugly win that will probably keep them locked in the mid-teens in the College Football Playoff rankings, but at least it was a win on a day when higher-ranked teams fell all around.
Nick Fitzgerald threw for just 139 yards and tossed two interceptions, though he did lead the team with 135 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. Aeris Williams also topped the 100-yard mark carrying the ball, ending the day with 114 yards. Though UMass played a disciplined game on the road, they simply didn’t have the firepower to put away the Bulldogs.
As a result, Mississippi State maintained its perfect record at home in 2017. The Bulldogs now turn their attention back to the SEC slate. Alabama comes to Starkville next weekend, and maintaining that perfect record will be much tougher than it already was against the Minutemen. A road trip to Arkansas then lurks prior to a short turnaround before the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving against rival Ole Miss.
In a wild Bedlam rivalry game that was full of offense and short on defense, No. 11 Oklahoma State fell 62-52 against No. 5 Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon. The two teams combined for over 1400 yards of offense and 114 points, but the home side fell 10 points short of victory and fell behind in the Big 12 race as a result.
Everyone put up big numbers all around. Mason Rudolph finished 28-of-54 for 448 yards and five touchdowns, though he also tossed two picks to the Sooners. Justice Hill had a huge game on the ground, finishing with 228 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries. But they also gave up nearly 800 yards of offense to visiting Oklahoma, and could not do enough to finish ahead on the scoreboard.
Now Mike Gundy‘s team will try to pick up the pieces and play their way back into the Big 12 picture. They will drop a few spots in the College Football Playoff rankings this week as the result of the defeat, but they aren’t entirely out of the picture. Iowa State, Kansas State, and Kansas still loom on the regular-season schedule with the Cowboys a game back in the conference race.
After taking down Penn State in a thrilling comeback at the end of October, Ohio State fell flat to start November. Taking on Iowa on the road, the Buckeyes fell 55-24 to the Hawkeyes in a disappointing performance that will send Urban Meyer’s team tumbling down the College Football Playoff Top 25 when the Week 11 rankings are released on Tuesday.
Following an impressive October run, J.T. Barrett played his way right back out of the Heisman picture. Barrett went 18-of-34 for only 208 yards, with three touchdowns but four interceptions against the Hawkeyes. His counterpart, Nathan Stanley, threw for 226 yards with five touchdowns and no turnovers. The Buckeyes defense also gave up 243 rushing yards, including 118 yards to Iowa’s feature back Akrum Wadley.
The Buckeyes now face a stiff test from Michigan State next weekend in a game that will likely decide the Big Ten East. If Ohio State wins out and takes the Big Ten title, an outside shot at the College Football Playoff still remains. But the ceiling for the Buckeyes this season is probably a New Year’s Six appearance, and there is no more margin for error this season.
In a matchup of ranked teams, No. 17 USC was ahead of No. 22 Arizona 21-3 at halftime in #Pac12AfterDark action. The Trojans dominated a Wildcats team that has given other Pac-12 squads fits throughout the season. As long as they hold on for victory in the second half, USC will be in position to reach the Pac-12 championship game and remain in the hunt for a New Year’s Six invitation.
Sam Darnold was once again efficient after a rough start to the season, showcasing why he was a preseason Heisman favorite and continues to be touted as a first-round NFL Draft pick. Ronald Jones II found plenty of running room against the Wildcats front seven. And the defense made Khalil Tate look ordinary both through the air and on the ground after Arizona’s dual-threat quarterback posted eye-popping numbers throughout October.
USC’s only losses came against Washington State and Notre Dame. Both are ranked, and both losses came on the road. If the Trojans continue to win and claim the Pac-12 title, they could ostensibly still play their way into a College Football Playoff berth given the difficulty of their overall schedule.
Auburn struggled early in College Station, but the No. 14 Tigers eventually pulled away for a solid 42-27 victory over Texas A&M. Thanks to solid offensive performances both in the air and on the ground, Gus Malzahn’s team kept itself in the SEC West hunt for another week and could move up a few spots in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings.
Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham had a great game on his return to the Lone Star State, finishing 20-of-27 for 268 yards and three touchdowns. Kerryon Johnson gashed the Texas A&M front seven for 145 rushing yards with a touchdown. Johnson added another 29 receiving yards and a score on a short catch. The Aggies were held under 350 yards of total offense as Auburn pulled away for the win.
Now Malzahn’s team looks forward to the toughest stretch of its season. The Tigers host top-ranked Georgia next weekend. A home game against Louisiana-Monroe out of conference falls right before they take on Alabama in the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa on Thanksgiving Saturday in a rivalry showdown that will likely decide which team plays Georgia in the SEC championship game.
Washington held its position atop the Pac-12 North standings with a dominant performance against Oregon in their annual rivalry game on Saturday night. The Huskies crushed the Ducks in #Pac12AfterDark competition, putting themselves in position to move to 8-1 and rise back up into the top 10 of the College Football Playoff rankings.
Dante Pettis broke the FBS punt return touchdown record in the first half, returning his ninth career punt return for a score. Jake Browning displayed a strong arm as he carved up the Oregon secondary for big gains, and his lone interception came on a fourth-down heave that effectively served as a punt. Myles Gaskin paced the ground game with well over 100 rushing yards along the way.
Barring a massive collapse in the second half, the Huskies will put themselves in position to climb back up into College Football Playoff contention. Their weak non-conference schedule could hurt their chances of climbing into the top four without other upsets around the country, but Washington remains the favorite to reclaim the Pac-12 title for a second straight season.
Indiana went up early at home as No. 9 Wisconsin took a while to get going on offense. Once the Badgers got things moving, though, the Hoosiers had no chance. The visitors ran away with a 45-17 victory in Bloomington as Jonathan Taylor ran for 183 yards and a touchdown and Alex Hornibrook finished with 158 passing yards and two scores.
Wisconsin’s defense came up big to keep the Badgers undefeated. The front seven held Indiana to 40 rushing yards all day, while the secondary picked off two of Richard Lagow‘s passes as well as forcing a Morgan Ellison fumble to stifle any hope of an upset by the home side.
With the win, Wisconsin stayed two games ahead of Northwestern and Nebraska in the Big Ten West. The Badgers already beat both the Wildcats and the Cornhuskers, and need just one more win to guarantee a trip to Indianapolis. Home games against Iowa and Michigan State loom ahead of the regular-season finale on the road against Minnesota for the College Football Playoff hopeful.
Miami stayed perfect in 2017, taking down No. 13 Virginia Tech in a showdown of ACC Coastal contenders. The Hurricanes prevailed 28-10 at home to move to 8-0 on the year, effectively locking up the division. They will push up into single digits of the College Football Playoff rankings after the victory over the Hokies.
Malik Rosier wasn’t great through the air, finishing just 10-of-21 for 193 passing yards with two touchdowns but three interceptions. He did, however, add 84 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Travis Homer led the Hurricanes with 95 rushing yards and a score, while the Miami defense held Virginia Tech under 300 total yards of offense and forced two Josh Jackson picks.
Mark Richt‘s team hosts No. 3 Notre Dame next weekend in a battle of teams hunting for a spot in the College Football Playoff. If the Hurricanes win in Week 11, they will vault over several teams and put themselves into a top-four position. An undefeated Miami squad with an ACC championship to its name would not be shut out of the Playoff no matter what else happens around the country.
TCU kept themselves in the hunt for the Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff berth with a dominant 24-7 win over Texas on Saturday evening in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs held the Longhorns to just nine total rushing yards and 263 total yards of offense. As a result, Gary Patterson‘s crew moved to 8-1 to stay tied with Oklahoma atop the league standings.
Kenny Hill had a quiet day for the Horned Frogs, throwing for 146 yards on 18-of-26 passing. Darius Anderson ran for 99 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries, while Kyle Hicks added two scores and 41 yards on 11 carries. The offense was hardly what one might expect from a Big 12 team, but it did more than enough in a game that was won with defense.
That’s a Patterson trademark, though, so it’s hard to be surprised that TCU depends on defense. Next week’s showdown against the Sooners will require the defense to be as salty as usual, while Hill will need to wake up some on offense. The Horned Frogs should move up a spot or two in the College Football Playoff Top 25 thanks to upsets to teams above them in the initial rankings of the year.
Lincoln Riley’s team kept themselves in the College Football Playoff picture with a scoreboard-shattering 62-52 win on the road. That it came in the Bedlam game against rival Oklahoma State made the win all the sweeter, and the selection committee will be impressed that the Sooners took down the No. 11 team in the nation.
Baker Mayfield put up another Heisman-worthy performance, throwing for 598 yards and five touchdowns on 24-of-36 passing. The quarterback outdueled his Cowboys counterpart, and added another touchdown on the ground. Rodney Anderson and Trey Sermon combined for 192 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Without losses ahead of them in the College Football Playoff rankings, it will be hard for the Sooners to climb up into the top four. But they will continue to hover just on the cusp of a semifinal spot, lying in wait for someone else to fall. A Big 12 title win over TCU would bolster their chances, though Ohio State’s upset on Saturday didn’t help Oklahoma’s cause.
Clemson found itself locked into a pitched battle on the road against No. 20 NC State on Saturday. The Tigers were behind 21-17 at the half against the Wolfpack, but pulled through for a 38-31 win in Raleigh on Saturday. After earning a top-four spot in the initial College Football Playoff rankings on Halloween, the defending national champions will remain the highest-ranked one-loss team after Week 10.
There were some causes for concern, though. Clemson’s defense gave up 338 passing yards and three touchdowns to Wolfpack quarterback Ryan Finley. Meanwhile, Kelly Bryant threw for just 191 yards with a touchdown and an interception for the Tigers. But Clemson won the turnover battle and committed just three penalties in a disciplined performance.
They also got an impressive Ironman performance from Ray-Ray McCloud, who featured at receiver, cornerback, and punt returner in a dominant display. As long as they beat Florida State at home next week, Clemson will be playing for another ACC title this season and look poised to reach a third straight College Football Playoff.
Notre Dame racked up a 31-10 lead by halftime at home against Wake Forest. Then the No. 3 Fighting Irish eased off the gas, allowing the Demon Deacons to get back into the contest. Even so, Brian Kelly’s team still pulled off a convincing 48-37 victory in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus on Saturday afternoon that will keep them in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings.
Brandon Wimbush threw for 280 yards and added another 110 rushing yards for the Irish in victory. Wimbush finished the game with three total touchdowns. An injury scare brought in backup Ian Book, who finished 8-of-8 passing and finished with 104 total yards and a touchdown. Josh Adams was also injured in the game after getting just five carries for 22 yards, and an extended loss of the running back could prove costly down the road.
For now, though, Notre Dame will remain in the College Football Playoff hunt this week. Next week the Fighting Irish take on old rival Miami on the road, with games against Navy and Stanford also looming on the schedule.
Alabama kept pace with Georgia in the College Football Playoff rankings, taking down No. 19 LSU by two touchdowns on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide pulled off a convincing 24-10 victory to remain among the few undefeated teams in the FBS, and they remain on a collision course to face the Bulldogs in the SEC championship game.
Jalen Hurts finished under 50 percent passing, throwing for 183 yards and a touchdown in the Alabama win. He added 44 yards and a touchdown to lead the Crimson Tide in rushing. Nick Saban’s crew finished with just 116 yards on the ground as LSU’s defense was solid up front. The Tigers outgained Alabama on offense, but struggled to find the endzone.
The Tide remain favorites to take the SEC West and reach the College Football Playoff for a fourth straight year, though they are far from guaranteed a spot unless they win out. Road trips to Mississippi State and Auburn still loom large for Alabama, sandwiched around a home date against FCS Mercer.
After debuting in the top spot of the College Football Playoff rankings last weekend, No. 1 Georgia probably did enough to hold on to the top spot in the Top 25 after taking down South Carolina 24-10 on Saturday afternoon. The Bulldogs moved to 9-0 and locked up their spot in the SEC championship game, as they sit three games ahead in the East with everyone having already played at least six of their eight conference games.
Jake Fromm was an efficient 16-of-22 for 196 yards and two touchdowns. Nick Chubb ran for 102 yards, while Sony Michel added 81 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Bulldogs defense picked off two Jake Bentley passes in the divisional showdown between the hedges, and held South Carolina under 300 total yards of offense.
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A tough trip to Auburn looms next weekend, and the Bulldogs still have to play Kentucky and the non-conference rivalry game against Georgia Tech in another bout of Clean Old-Fashioned Hate. At this point, though, nobody really looks capable of taking down Georgia in the regular season.