A relatively upset-free Week 12 transpired ahead of Thanksgiving weekend. Will there be much movement in this week’s College Football Playoff Top 25?
As inclement weather brought wintry conditions to many Midwestern games this weekend, there was plenty of opportunity to see upsets abound throughout college football. But teams throughout the south either faced traditional rivals or cupcake opponents, and things held relatively firm in the standings.
There were a few upsets, for sure. Oklahoma State fell against Kansas State at home, effectively ending any dream the Cowboys had of playing in the Big 12 Championship. NC State fell at Wake Forest and will probably tumble out of the rankings this week. So too will Michigan, which could not deal Wisconsin its first loss of the year on a cold day in Madison.
Even without many upsets, though, the College Football Playoff selection committee has been notorious over the past few years for shifting around teams even when they win. We could see a reshuffling even at the top, thanks to the shifts in schedule strength that transpired over the weekend.
Where will everyone end up, and which teams might emerge to take over spots in the Top 25 this week to replace the Wolfpack and the Wolverines? Keep reading for our early projections for what the College Football Playoff rankings will look like when they are released for Week 13 on Tuesday night.
South Florida survived against upset-minded Tulsa on Thursday night to move to 9-1. Building a big lead in the first quarter, the Bulls then hung on in a closer-than-expected showdown. It wasn’t a memorable performance, as Quinton Flowers went just 11-of-28 passing and the USF defense gave up over 350 yards of offense to a two-win Golden Hurricane squad.
Still, the Bulls won, and at this point the number of teams with one loss is in the single digits. With the victory, Charlie Strong’s squad set up a winner-take-all battle in Week 13 against UCF for the AAC East crown.
After opening the year as the prohibitive favorite to claim the American Athletic Conference title and the Group of Five spot in a New Year’s Six bowl, USF is still on track to achieve that goal. They were ranked in the AP Top 25 earlier this season, and the Bulls will climb up into the College Football Playoff rankings this week.
Virginia Tech will probably climb back up into the College Football Playoff Top 25 after surviving a tough road trip against Pittsburgh on Saturday. The Hokies avoided the trap threat set by the Panthers, and remain in the hunt for a 10-win season after securing a 20-14 victory away from home.
Josh Jackson was inconsistent in victory, with a completion rate under 50 percent and an interception to go along with 250 yards from scrimmage and two combined touchdowns. Pitt finished with just nine fewer yards than the Hokies in the conference loss, and the Hokies needed a fourth-quarter comeback and a goal-line stop to hold on for the tight win.
Even so, the Hokies are second behind Miami in the ACC Coastal and have done enough to secure a bump back up into the rankings from the College Football Playoff selection committee. Justin Fuente’s crew closes out the regular season with a trip to Charlottesville on Thanksgiving weekend to face rival Virginia.
As long as Boise State holds on to win against Air Force for the first time since 2013, they will remain in the College Football Playoff Top 25 after making a surprise appearance at the bottom of the rankings last week. A loss by Wyoming against Fresno State earlier in the day already sealed up the MWC Mountain title for the Broncos.
Brett Rypien looked great in the first half against Air Force, completing eight of his 12 passing attempts for 177 yards and two touchdowns. The running game was cold, with Ryan Wolpin and Alexander Mattison failing to find much running room against the Falcons defense. But Boise State also did a great job of bottling up the Air Force run game, as a normally-prolific ground attack managed just 46 first-half yards.
The Broncos are playing for a conference title for the first time in three years, and it will open the door for Bryan Harsin’s team to have a shot at the Group of Five’s bid into a New Year’s Six bowl game. They close out the regular season against Fresno State that will determine which team hosts the rematch between the two teams a week later for the MWC title.
Northwestern pitched its first shutout in over two seasons in a dominant 39-0 victory over Minnesota on Saturday. The No. 23 Wildcats overpowered the visiting Golden Gophers on a Midwestern day marked by cold, rain, and wind in Evanston. With the victory, Pat Fitzgerald’s squad consolidated its spot in the College Football Playoff Top 25.
The win was fueled by 166 rushing yards from Wildcats running back Justin Jackson. Clayton Thorsen had an efficient day passing the ball despite the weather, completing nine of his 13 attempts for only 86 yards but three touchdowns. The Northwestern defense was instrumental as well, holding Minnesota under 200 total yards of offense in the shutout.
Northwestern gets one more chance to bolster its bowl position with a road trip to Illinois next weekend. No matter what, they will be headed to a second straight postseason appearance this year. The Wildcats could ostensibly still reach 10 wins this season if they take down the Illini and win their bowl game.
Memphis sweated out the start of its showdown at home against SMU on Saturday. Knotted at 10-10 after the first quarter, the Mustangs were within a touchdown of the Tigers at halftime. But Mike Norvell’s team came back from the break and ran away with a 66-45 victory to move to 9-1 on the season and claim the AAC West title.
Riley Ferguson threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns on 21-of-27 passing while adding three rushing touchdowns. Both Darrell Henderson and Patrick Taylor Jr. ran for at least 100 yards, with both running backs notching two scores apiece. SMU managed to gain nearly 500 yards of offense but couldn’t keep pace with the prolific Memphis offense.
Memphis could possibly push up a spot or two in this week’s College Football Playoff Top 25. Now they will wait to see whether they get a rematch against UCF or a shot at South Florida in the American Athletic Conference title game when the two AAC East contenders square off on Thanksgiving weekend in the War of I-4.
Oklahoma State is going to tumble at least five spots down the College Football Playoff Top 25 this week after failing to pull off their comeback bid against Kansas State on Saturday. The loss effectively knocked the Cowboys out of the running for a spot in the revived Big 12 championship game.
Mike Gundy’s team spotted the Wildcats a 42-13 lead by the third quarter, then flipped the switch and tried to pull back the gap. Oklahoma State had a shot at the comeback with the ball in the final two minutes, but Mason Rudolph failed on four straight passes as the rebound fizzled. The Cowboys were undone by Kansas State quarterback Skylar Thompson, who went 10-of-13 for 204 yards and three touchdowns and added 93 rushing yards and a score on the ground.
A third loss probably won’t knock the Cowboys all the way out of the College Football Playoff rankings. But they could fall the way into the low 20s as a result of the upset in Stillwater this weekend.
Washington faced an upset alert from Utah in the first half of #Pac12AfterDark action in Seattle, but by halftime the Huskies had gained a 16-13 advantage. As long as Chris Petersen’s team stays ahead of the Utes in the late-night action on Saturday, they will remain in the College Football Playoff Top 25 on Tuesday.
If they lose to the Utes, the Huskies will probably fall out and open the door for a team like South Carolina to climb up into the rankings. But for now, this projection assumes that Washington holds on to beat its interdivisional foe. Jake Browning had an efficient first half, completing 10 of his 11 passes for 107 yards and a score. As long as he continues with his strong quarterback play, the Huskies should prevail.
Unfortunately for them, though, the upset loss to Stanford effectively ended their chance of repeating as Pac-12 champions. If they beat Washington State in the Apple Cup, the Cardinal will play USC in the conference title game as the North representative. If they lose to the Cougars, it will be Mike Leach’s team that heads to Santa Clara. Instead, the Huskies are now left to jockey for bowl position.
Stanford kept its hopes of a Pac-12 title alive as they survived another edition of the Big Game against California in Week 12. The two Bay Area rivals played a close battle in Palo Alto, but the Cardinal held on for a 17-14 victory that kept them atop the Pac-12 North standings.
Heisman hopeful Bryce Love had a relatively quiet day, rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown against the Golden Bears. He did bust off a 57-yarder for his only score, but otherwise Cal did a good job of keeping the prolific running back in check. K.J. Costello added 185 yards on 17-of-26 passing, with one touchdown and one interception.
Now Stanford turns its attention to the regular-season finale out of conference against Notre Dame. They will have to wait to see if they get to play in the Pac-12 championship game. If Washington beats Washington State in the Apple Cup on Thanksgiving weekend, the Cardinal will face USC in nearby Santa Clara for the conference title.
Playing its first game under interim head coach Brady Hoke, Tennessee had no chance against No. 20 LSU. The Tigers struggled to pass the ball, as Danny Etling threw for only 81 yards. But they still ran away with a 30-10 victory on Saturday at Neyland Stadium to continue the heartache in Knoxville in a forgettable season.
The victory was fueled by LSU running back Derrius Guice, who finished the day with 97 rushing yards and a touchdown. Etling added 42 yards and a score on the ground to supplement his limited passing production, while Darrel Williams chipped in 68 yards and two scores on just seven carries. Tennessee racked up nearly 250 passing yards but nevertheless fell by 20.
The win will keep LSU in the College Football Playoff rankings another week, and they could push up a spot or two into the high teens after moving to 8-3. A New Year’s Six bowl berth could still be in the cards if the Tigers take down Texas A&M in the regular-season finale.
In a weather-bitten day on Saturday that alternated between rain and snow, No. 17 Michigan State put on a sterling defensive display to knock off Maryland in East Lansing. The Spartans held the Terrapins to 204 total yards of offense, and fended off a comeback bid by the visitors as they secured an eighth win on the season.
Brian Lewerke struggled to connect with his receivers on a cold and windy day at home. But the Spartans quarterback ran for 63 yards and a score. Michigan State put up 271 rushing yards all day, led by LJ Scott’s 147 yards and a touchdown. Maryland had a late surge on offense as the weather mellowed slightly and Max Bortenschlager started to connect with his receivers to end the MSU shutout bid.
While the Spartans will remain right around the mid-teens in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, they are no longer in the running for a spot in the Big Ten championship. Michigan State has nevertheless rebounded impressively from last year’s 3-9 swoon. A win next week against Rutgers would put Mark Dantonio’s team in position for a fourth 10-win season in five years if they also win their bowl game.
For much of Saturday, it looked like No. 16 Mississippi State might drop its second straight game after losing to Alabama in Week 11. The Bulldogs were down and on upset alert in Fayetteville against Arkansas after spotting the Razorbacks a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. Arkansas kept itself in the contest most of the day, but the Bulldogs managed to come back for a 28-21 victory.
Nick Fitzgerald had another big game at quarterback for Mississippi State, throwing for 153 yards and two touchdowns and adding another 101 yards and a score on the ground. The Bulldogs defense held Razorbacks quarterback Austin Allen to 124 yards and a fumble. Arkansas managed just 221 total yards of offense in the loss at home.
The win by the Bulldogs could put Dan Mullen’s team in the running for a New Year’s Six berth if they also win the Egg Bowl next weekend against rival Ole Miss. They will remain somewhere in the teens of the College Football Playoff rankings when the next release occurs on Tuesday.
UCF kept its hopes of a New Year’s Six berth alive on Saturday, taking down defending American Athletic Conference champion Temple in a 45-19 win on the road. The Knights stayed among the ranks of the undefeated with the runaway victory in Philadelphia, and could potentially push a spot or two higher in the College Football Playoff Top 25 this week.
McKenzie Milton had another Heisman-worthy performance, going 16-of-23 for 208 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. He added another 23 rushing yards and a score on the ground. The Knights defense did its job as well, giving up nearly 400 yards to the Owls offense but forcing five turnovers.
While a College Football Playoff berth could be out of reach for any Group of Five team at this point, UCF is doing its best to force the selection committee’s hand. Next weekend, the Knights host rival South Florida in an edition of the War of I-4 that will serve as a winner-take-all contest for the AAC East title.
Washington State will hold firm in the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday after sitting out Week 12 on a bye. They control their own destiny in the Pac-12 North race, and have twice managed to overcome losses to rebound in the polls and Top 25 lists.
The Cougars will be rested and ready for Washington when they face the rival Huskies on Thanksgiving weekend in the annual Apple Cup. Washington State has been winning thanks to its usual prolific offense. But less heralded has been the defensive strength projected by the Cougars this year.
Yes, the Cougars boast a top-10 passing offense. But their secondary has been almost as good, holding opponents under 175 passing yards per game and ranking eighth nationally in opponents’ passing efficiency. They have also gotten things done on the ground, with a rushing defense inside the top 30 in the FBS. All they need to do is bottle up Jake Browning and the Huskies, and WSU will be playing for its first Pac-12 title since 2002.
TCU bolstered its chance to play in the Big 12 championship game after taking down Texas Tech 27-3 on Saturday. After holding the Red Raiders to a field goal on their opening nine-minute drive, the Horned Frogs defense shut down Texas Tech’s defense the rest of the way. It was another vintage performance by a Gary Patterson squad as they ran away with their ninth win of the year.
TCU was forced to play without either quarterback Kenny Hill or running back Darius Anderson, who were both out injured. Kyle Hicks started in Anderson’s place, while the quarterback spot was manned by freshman Shawn Robinson. The youngster overthrew receivers as he went just 6-of-17 passing, but led all rushers with 84 yards on 10 carries.
After Oklahoma State lost later in the day, the Horned Frogs effectively sealed up their spot in the Big 12 championship game as long as they beat Baylor next week. If they avenge their earlier loss to Oklahoma, TCU could play its way into a berth in the Cotton Bowl or Fiesta Bowl. They will have trouble climbing up the College Football Playoff rankings, though.
Penn State kept alive its chances of another 10-win season as they claimed a 56-44 win over Nebraska on Saturday. The No. 10 Nittany Lions took a huge lead in the first half, then held on for the victory as the Cornhuskers ran out of time in their second-half comeback bid.
It was a statement day for Saquon Barkley, who finally put up the sort of game that was expected with regularity when he was a Heisman frontrunner earlier in the year. The tailback finished with 224 combined rushing and receiving yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Trace McSorley added 325 yards and three touchdowns on 24-of-36 passing. But the Penn State defense also gave up nearly 500 yards and a half-dozen touchdowns to Tanner Lee and the Cornhuskers.
The Nittany Lions are out of the running to defend their Big Ten title, and a spot in the College Football Playoff is out of reach. But James Franklin’s team could be headed back to a New Year’s Six bowl if they win out over Maryland and finish the regular season with 10 wins.
USC concluded regular-season play by retaining the Victory Bell in a tense 28-23 win over UCLA on Saturday evening. The Trojans struggled to put away their crosstown rival, but the defense did enough against a potent Bruins offense to hold on. Now Clay Helton’s team will have a break for the first time this season as they prepare to see who they will play in the Pac-12 championship.
The USC defense gave up 421 yards and three touchdowns to UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen, who outdueled Sam Darnold in a showdown of potential NFL Draft first-round picks. Darnold finished the game with 264 passing yards, but threw no touchdowns and one interception. Instead, the Trojans defense was paced by standout running back Ronald Jones II, who posted 122 rushing yards and two touchdowns in the win.
When the Trojans head to Santa Clara to play in the Pac-12 championship game in early December, they will face either Stanford or Washington State depending on the results of the Apple Cup on Thanksgiving weekend. The Cougars dealt USC one of its only two losses in Pullman back in October, while the Trojans took down Stanford in a runaway September victory.
Notre Dame had a scare in the nation’s oldest continuously operating intersectional rivalry game. Last year the Fighting Irish fell to Navy, and in 2017 they barely pulled away late for a 24-17 victory in South Bend. It was a performance that will keep Brian Kelly’s team in the top 10 of the College Football Playoff rankings, though they could lose ground in the rankings against the best of the Big Ten East.
Brandon Wimbush had an uneven performance at quarterback for the Irish. After a slow start, Wimbush finished 9-of-18 for 164 yards and two passing touchdowns. Josh Adams chipped in with 106 rushing yards, while the defense held Navy nearly 100 yards below its season rushing average.
After losing to Georgia and then Miami, the Fighting Irish are out of the running for a spot in the College Football Playoff. A New Year’s Six bowl berth is still in play, though, if Notre Dame can take down Stanford next weekend.
Ohio State continued its push for a spot in the Big Ten championship game with a blowout victory over Illinois on Saturday. The Buckeyes took a big lead into the locker room at halftime, then held serve through the second half to walk away with a 52-14 victory for their ninth win of the season.
The defense was the biggest star for the Buckeyes, holding Illinois to 105 total yards of offense. They made life especially difficult for Illini quarterback Chayce Crouch, who went 4-of-14 for only 16 passing yards. On the opposite side, J.T. Barrett had an inconsistent performance. He finished 11-of-19 for 141 yards and two passing touchdowns and added 33 yards and a rushing touchdown.
Ohio State will have a hard time passing teams like Oklahoma in the race for a College Football Playoff berth. But the Buckeyes are on pace to win the Big Ten East. The selection committee could push the Buckeyes ahead of Notre Dame into the No. 8 spot of this week’s Top 25.
After getting upset by Auburn last weekend, No. 7 Georgia rebounded in style for a 42-13 victory over Kentucky between the hedges on Saturday. It was a day dominated in the trenches by the Bulldogs, who overran the Wildcats on both sides of the ball.
Nick Chubb racked up 151 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries. Not to be outdone, Sony Michel needed only 12 carries to pile up 87 yards and three scores. As a team, the Bulldogs finished with 381 rushing yards and an average of 8.7 yards per carry against Kentucky. On the other side of the ball, Mark Richt’s squad held the Wildcats to 262 yards of offense and a single touchdown.
The Bulldogs kept themselves in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth in the takedown of Kentucky, though they will probably remain anchored at the No. 7 spot this week. If they win out against Georgia Tech and either Alabama or Auburn, though, an SEC champion Georgia squad will not be shut out of the semifinals of the College Football Playoff.
Auburn was on upset alert early on the Plains during its encounter with Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday. But the visiting Sun Belt team ran out of steam by halftime, and the No. 6 Tigers pulled ahead for a runaway 42-14 victory that keeps them in the running for the SEC West.
Jarrett Stidham went 18-of-24 through the air for 235 yards and two touchdowns. Kerryon Johnson had another big day running the ball, racking up 137 yards and a score on the ground. Kam Martin added another 83 rushing yards and a touchdown. And after a slow start, the Auburn defense clamped down on ULM to hold the Warhawks to 333 total yards of offense.
Now Auburn can look ahead to its annual meeting against Alabama. The Iron Bowl will once again serve as the play-in showdown for the SEC championship game out of the West. If the Tigers win, then beat Georgia in a rematch for the conference title, they will likely become the first two-loss team to make the College Football Playoff.
The Sooners cruised to victory over one of the Big 12 cellar dwellers, upending Kansas 41-3 on the road on Saturday. Oklahoma earned its 10th win of the season and guaranteed itself a place in the Big 12 championship game as a result.
Baker Mayfield put in another sterling performance in victory. The Heisman frontrunner completed 20 of his 30 passing attempts for 257 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Sooners backfield added 157 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Oklahoma’s defense came through as well, holding Kansas to a field goal and 155 total yards of offense.
Will a win over Kansas be enough to keep the Sooners ahead of undefeated Wisconsin, though? If they win out, the Sooners will probably finish ahead of the ACC championship game loser and in the top four of the College Football Playoff. This week, though, the selection committee will probably drop Lincoln Riley’s team a spot in the rankings.
Wisconsin kept its spot among the last four undefeated teams in the country, taking down No. 24 Michigan on Saturday in Madison. The Badgers could push their way up past Oklahoma into the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings when they come out on Tuesday, as a result of their relative strength of opponents in Week 12.
Paul Chryst’s team won thanks to its dominant defense. The Badgers defense held the Wolverines to 58 rushing yards and only 234 total yards of offense. Freshman sensation Jonathan Taylor put up another triple-digit day, rushing for 132 yards on 19 carries. Alex Hornibrook had a tougher time in the weather, throwing for 143 yards with a touchdown and a pick on 9-of-19 passing.
At this point the Badgers are the only team with any chance of reaching the College Football Playoff out of the Big Ten. They take on Minnesota in the Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe on Thanksgiving weekend ahead of the conference title game in Indianapolis.
Miami was in danger of dropping its first game of the year for much of the day at home. Virginia came to Florida and put a scare into the home crowd, taking several double-digit leads before the Hurricanes pulled away for a 44-28 victory on Saturday afternoon. The win pushed Mark Richt’s team to 10-0 and kept them among the ranks of the unbeaten for another week.
In the victory, the Canes defense struggled to contain Virginia’s Kurt Benkert. The quarterback went 28-of-37 for 384 yards and four touchdowns. The Turnover Chain got a workout for Miami, though, as the Hurricanes forced two fumbles and a Benkert interception.
Miami now turns its attention to its final regular-season outing, a possible trap game at Pittsburgh. Even if they lose, the Hurricanes will still be at the ACC championship game. If they get past the Panthers, though, the conference championship against Clemson will serve as a play-in game for the College Football Playoff.
Clemson was merciless as expected against The Citadel on Saturday, taking down the Bulldogs in an overpowering 61-3 mismatch. The defending national champions dominated their FCS opponent in all phases of the game. Only a late field goal by the visitors prevented the Tigers from securing the shutout.
Kelly Bryant was nearly perfect against Mercer, going 17-of-22 through the air for 230 yards and three touchdowns. All around, the Tigers racked up 662 yards of offense against their lower-subdivision opponent. Meanwhile, Mercer managed just 216 yards and coughed up two interceptions as the Clemson defense dominated the proceedings.
With a spot in the ACC championship game already locked up, all Clemson needs to do now is win out. If they take down South Carolina next weekend in the Battle for the Palmetto State, then beat Miami for another ACC title, the Tigers will be back in the College Football Playoff for a third straight year.
Alabama did exactly what was expected of it as the Tide rolled to a 56-0 shutout over outgunned Mercer. The FCS program came to Tuscaloosa and served as the sacrificial lamb ahead of a winner-takes-all Iron Bowl showdown against Auburn for the SEC West and a spot in the conference championship on the first Saturday of December.
Jalen Hurts threw just seven passes, but he completed all seven for 180 yards and three touchdowns in the dominant victory. The Tide had perfect balance on offense, with 265 passing yards (from Hurts and backup Tua Tagovailoa) and 265 rushing yards from its backfield. The defense gave up just 161 total yards to the visiting Bears.
Add it all up, and Alabama will remain at No. 1 in the College Football Playoff Top 25 for another week after climbing up into the top spot last Tuesday. All they need to do is beat Auburn and Georgia to ensure a spot in the four-team bracket for the fourth time in four seasons.