We get one final taste of #Pac12AfterDark action this season as USC and Stanford football meet again. Here are five reasons the Cardinal can knock off the Trojans.
It has been a wild season in the Pac-12. The South went to form, as No. 10 USC found its way to the top of its division. But the North went right down to the wire. Washington’s win over Washington State in the Apple Cup set the stage for No. 12 Stanford to earn a rematch against the Trojans for the Pac-12 championship.
The last time the Cardinal met USC, back in September in Los Angeles, they ran out of steam and suffered a 42-24 defeat. But both teams are playing at a vastly different level than they were at the beginning of the year, and their early-season form offers few indications of what might actually go down on Friday night.
USC comes into the game as the clear favorite. The oddsmakers are positioning Stanford as a one-touchdown underdog in the rematch. David Shaw’s team, however, will be ready for their chance to get revenge for the earlier loss to the Trojans. Here are five reasons why the Cardinal can upset USC on Friday in the final taste of #Pac12AfterDark action for the 2017 season.
5. Stanford will be playing close to home
In the first few years after expanding from 10 teams to 12 teams, the Pac-12 championship game was hosted by the division winner with the better record. Since 2014, however, the game has been played at Levi’s Stadium.
The home of the San Francisco 49ers is just 14 miles away down toward the southern end of the Bay Area from the Stanford campus in Palo Alto. While USC will be making the long trip up from Los Angeles, the Cardinal have the decided advantage of getting to play close to home on Friday night.
David Shaw’s team has won its only previous Pac-12 championship game appearance at Levi’s Stadium. Two years ago, the Cardinal took down USC in the 2015 title game in a runaway 41-22 victory. While it is unlikely that Stanford will open up that big a lead on Friday night against the Trojans, they have the benefit of getting to sleep at home.
While it isn’t quite the confines of Stanford Stadium, the Cardinal still have a geographic advantage over their interdivisional rival. They have won three of the past five Pac-12 crowns, and after Washington vaulted them into the championship game Stanford will get to gun for a fourth in six years really close to home.
4. Stanford has a better starting quarterback than they did in September
When USC and Stanford played back in September, Keller Chryst was still entrenched as the starter for the Cardinal. It wasn’t that Chryst played badly against the Trojans, as he went 15-of-28 for 172 yards and two touchdowns.
Chryst’s bigger woes came as the season advanced. After losing to USC in the second game of the season, the quarterback failed to get over 200 yards in any of his other starts. Chryst also threw four interceptions against four touchdowns, putting the Cardinal at a disadvantage even as they won most of their games.
Eventually Chryst’s struggles opened the door for redshirt freshman K.J. Costello to take over the starting role. Since then, he has helped power a Stanford offense that is still not putting up huge numbers through the air but looks far more confident when it does throw the ball. Costello has a completion rate seven points higher than Chryst, with nine touchdowns against two interceptions.
While the Stanford defense is familiar with the threat they face in Sam Darnold, the Trojans have yet to face Costello on the field. He did not get any snaps against USC back in September. In the Pac-12 championship game, Stanford’s improvement at quarterback since September could be the missing ingredient that kept them from besting the Trojans last time.
3. The Cardinal are great at protecting the football
One regular hallmark of David Shaw’s Stanford teams is the fact that they rarely shoot themselves in the foot with costly penalties. This season has been no exception, as they have done a great job of protecting the football on offense.
Over the course of the year, Stanford has thrown just six interceptions in its 12 games. Four were thrown by Keller Chryst as he cooled off from a solid start. That opened the door for K.J. Costello to take over under center, and the redshirt freshman has only coughed up the ball twice to opposing secondaries.
Stanford currently ranks fifth in the nation in terms of turnovers lost. In addition to the half-dozen picks thrown by its quarterbacks, the Cardinal have also fumbled away the ball just four times. Averaging less than a turnover per game was a key reason why they were able to outlast the two Washington schools to reclaim the Pac-12 North in 2017.
The turnover battle will be an important factor on Friday night. If the trends hold firm, Stanford will not give away the ball more than once. That will allow them to stay in the contest and in position to pull off another huge upset.
2. Stanford features a ballhawking secondary
While the offense has been great at keeping possession of the football, the Stanford defense has been equally good at generating turnovers and getting the ball back for that offense. The secondary has been especially adept at picking off opposing quarterbacks.
The defensive backfield has snatched away 16 interceptions so far in 2017, ranking 10th in the country in that mark. They have been led by junior safety Justin Reid, who has five interceptions so far this season. That includes one against Sam Darnold the last time the Cardinal faced off against USC back in September.
Stanford has also generated eight fumble recoveries, in large part because their upperclassman-loaded secondary has taken away opportunities for quarterbacks to get rid of the football. In total, the Cardinal defense averages two turnovers per game. As a result, they rank 11th in the FBS in turnovers gained and fourth nationally in turnover margin.
They are playing a USC team that has been uncharacteristically mediocre at protecting the football. Sam Darnold has thrown 12 interceptions so far this season, and he could be due for another couple picks on Friday night. Should Reid or another of the veteran defensive backfield stars get a couple of interceptions, they will position the Cardinal for yet another Pac-12 title.
1. Stanford will have the best player on the field in Bryce Love
While Christian McCaffrey departed for the NFL after last season, the Stanford running game has been even better in 2017 thanks to Bryce Love. The Heisman hopeful ranks second in the nation in yards per game and total rushing yards, and he averages a gaudy 8.6 yards per carry.
He has struggled with ankle issues throughout the season, but he is rounding back into form and is due for another statement moment as he chases Baker Mayfield for the most coveted individual award in college football. On Friday night, Love needs 152 yards to pass the 2000-yard mark for the season.
No player is a bigger threat to bust off a game-changing play than Love, who leads the nation in plays of 30 or more yards this season. Thanks both to a stout offensive line and his spectacular field vision, Love has ripped off 16 rushing touchdowns already this season.
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When he faced USC last time in September, the tailback ran for 160 yards on 17 carries. That included a 75-yard burst for a touchdown that tied the game up in the first quarter on the first play after the Trojans’ touchdown on their opening drive. If he can produce like he has all season long, Love will put the Cardinal in position to generate a huge upset and yet another Pac-12 championship.