USC football faces the Stanford Cardinal in the 2017 Pac-12 Championship Game. Here are my three bold predictions for the game.
The 11th-ranked Trojans will face the 21st-ranked Cardinal at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Friday evening. Santa Clara is about a half an hour from the Stanford campus which makes it all but a home game for the Cardinal. USC has about an hour and a quarter flight up north for the game.
The Trojans enter the game 10-2 and ranked 19th in Bill C’s S&P+ rankings. The Cardinal are 9-3 and 27th in Bill C’s rankings. Both schools have a Heisman Trophy hype candidate with USC quarterback Sam Darnold and Stanford’s tailback Bryce Love. The Trojans won the early-season iteration of this contest back in September down in Los Angeles, 42-24.
The Trojans are coached by Clay Helton. He is 26-9 while at the helm of the Trojans. Helton served as a post-Lane Kiffin interim head coach before getting the full-time tag. Since then, he’s had back-to-back 10-win seasons. Helton’s star is the aforementioned Darnold.
Darnold hasn’t been as dominant as many anticipated but he’s still considered a first round NFL draft pick in 2018. Darnold has thrown for 3,400-plus yards and 24 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. But USC has a balanced offense. Ronald Jones II has rushed for 1,300-plus yards and 16 touchdowns on 6.3 yards per carry.
Stanford’s offense lacks the firepower in the passing game that the Trojans have, but they have Bryce Love. Love is the most explosive player in the country. Love has ran for 1,800-plus yards, with 16 touchdowns as well, but on 8.6 yards per carry.
The Stanford issue is at quarterback where K.J. Costello has looked better than Keller Chryst but still is unimpressive. The Cardinal lost the first outing but Love got his rushing for 9.6 yards per carry against the Trojans defense. In a major similar matchup; the Trojans were beatdown by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the middle of the year while the Cardinal just beat the Irish in a come-from-behind victory.
Here are my three bold predictions for the Pac-12 Championship Game
3. Bryce Love runs for 150-plus yards and two touchdowns
Bryce Love is one of the most entertaining players in the country. The junior tailback from Wake Forest, N.C., has to be a Heisman favorite alongside Baker Mayfield, the Oklahoma Sooners’ quarterback.
Love is all class and the 5-foot-10, 190-pound running back has proven his toughness. He has played with an ankle sprain for weeks, even missing the Oregon State game in October. With improved Pac-12 defenses he still managed to rush for over one 100 yards in all but one game, that was against the Washington State Cougars. The Cougars have one of the top 25 defenses in college football and the hottest young defensive mind in the country, Alex Grinch.
The junior is going to get his yards. In the first meeting, he ran for 160 and a touchdown. At this point in the year, his body has taken a lot of hits but I can’t see him not showing out for the conference title. Love will break the 150-yard mark and score two touchdowns.
Southern California’s defense has been described as “Mister Softee” by the podcast duo The Solid Verbal. The unit is ranked 56th by the the S&P+ and Love may cause it to drop even more.
With Costello providing a spark to the passing game in the second half of the Notre Dame win, that will wide defenses out of the box as they can no longer play eight men inside the box. That will allow Love and the multiple tight end and fullback sets to create more gaps and the Trojans will have to honor the pass and run this time around.
2. Sam Darnold throws two interceptions
Sam Darnold is a polarizing figure. Pundits either think the Trojans’ passer is going to be the first overall draft pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, or they think he’s a complete flop in the vain of Mark Sanchez and Matt Leinart. There’s reason for both opinions.
The 6-foot-4, 220-pound California-native has shown flashes of NFL talent. Darnold can make the prototypical NFL throws like the 15-yard out, and he doesn’t hang his post up there deep and over the middle. Where he becomes mind-boggling is when he throws two interceptions against Western Michigan, or can’t score against a weak UCLA defense.
The shine comes off a player when they fail to play big in big games. For instance, against the Washington State Cougars, Darnold threw no touchdowns, an interception and averaged 5.6 yards per passing attempt. The USC Trojans lost and it was a major upset victory for the Cougars. He tossed another interception against the Fighting Irish in another loss.
Losing big games and throwing twelve interceptions is a rough way to head into your ‘contract year’ as a college football quarterback. Darnold will have to wow the scouts in his interviews and at individual workouts to beat out fellow Los Angeles quarterback Josh Rosen for the top pick in the NFL Draft in 2018.
I can see Darnold throwing two interceptions against the Stanford Cardinal defense that’s not what we usually think of the Cardinal defense. Stanford’s defense is ranked 51st by the S&P+, a far cry from what we’ve grown to expect.
1. Stanford pulls off the upset of USC
I’ve missed on a few of my bold predictions over the course of the year, but Vegas and Bill C even miss on theirs, so it’s only natural. However, I’ve had some gems with my predictions and I think this will be one as well: Stanford will upset USC.
The Cardinal are only eight spots behind the Trojans in the S&P+. I trust those rankings far more than the Coaches or AP polls. The S&P+ is about as accurate, if not more accurate, than Las Vegas betting sites. USC has the offensive advantage with their balance and big names in Darnold and Jones, but the Cardinal are coming off a come from behind victory over the Fighting Irish and David Shaw won’t let his squad take their foot off the pedal.
Bryce Love wasn’t as explosive against Notre Dame, rushing for only 6.3 yards per carry and not scoring. But the passing game improved and with K.J. Costello at quarterback the Cardinal are more versatile than back in their September meeting.
It’s also very difficult to beat a team twice in the same year. It doesn’t happen that often in college football. Teams adjust, get a chip on their shoulder, and show out. Especially in a conference title game. Expect the Cardinal to be ready for USC.
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The Trojans have a major distraction too, Darnold will be thinking as much about the NFL Draft as this season and I can see that posing a lot of pressure on the young man’s shoulders. The Cardinal defeat the Trojans by two points for the Pac-12 Championship.