The first Power Five championship takes place on Friday night between USC football and Stanford. Here are five reasons the Trojans will knock off the Cardinal.
We get one last taste of #Pac12AfterDark action this season, when No. 10 USC squares off against No. 12 Stanford at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Friday night. The Trojans came into the season as a trendy pick to win their first conference title since the Pac-12 was still the Pac-10.
Now all they need to do is finish the job against a Cardinal team they already knocked off once this season. When the two teams met for the first time in 2017 back in September, they ran away with a 42-24 victory at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Though the game was close throughout the first half, the Trojans pulled away for a convincing victory.
While they are playing a Cardinal team that has been playing far better than it did earlier in the year, USC still enters the contest as a one-touchdown favorite. Two years after the teams met in Santa Clara for the Pac-12 championship, the Trojans get another shot to earn their first league crown since the Pete Carroll days of 2008.
What will it take for USC to prevail on Friday night? Here are five reasons why the Trojans will knock off Stanford for a second time this season and lay claim to the first Power Five title of the 2017 season.
5. USC sets itself up for success with strong first-down offense
One area in which USC has been especially good this season is at setting itself up to keep the chains moving and its offense on the field. A strong ground game and adept, efficient passing has been evident throughout 2017. That has allowed USC to generate solid yardage on first downs.
The Trojans convert over 40 percent of their third-down plays, helping their defense stay off the field. In total, USC has generated 295 first downs over the course of the season. They average nearly 25 first downs per game, good for sixth nationally and the best mark in the Pac-12. Against a solid Stanford defense, that will be critical on Friday night.
They have been especially good at moving the chains thanks to a balanced offense with plenty of playmakers. Opposing defenses can’t focus solely on one key playmaker. If they pay too much attention to the receivers, a multitalented backfield will gash them for the first down. If a defense tries to take out Sam Darnold with a blitz, he is great at finding a hot read and getting the ball out quickly. Ditto for putting too many in the box to try to stop the run on short-yardage situations.
When these two teams met back in September, USC generated 28 first downs against the Cardinal. They will likely put up a similar number on the neutral turf of Levi’s Stadium, and in turn will set themselves up to keep the ball moving and put points on the board.
4. The Trojans generate more sacks than all but Miami
Stanford has turned to redshirt freshman K.J. Costello at quarterback, after early-season starter Keller Chryst faded and lost his mojo. USC sacked Chryst twice and hurried him another time when the two teams squared off in Los Angeles in September. Now that they face an underclassman this time around, they will be even more keen to get pressure on the young quarterback.
Only the Miami Hurricanes generate more sacks than USC, which bodes well for their goal of making Costello uncomfortable in Santa Clara. The Trojans have averaged nearly three and a half sacks per game against their opponents, making life miserable in the process for opposing quarterbacks.
Christian Rector and Rasheem Green each rank in the top 25 nationally in sacks. Rector leads the way with nine sacks in 12 games. Green is close behind with eight sacks at this point of the year. They are joined by players such as Josh Fatu and Uchenna Nwosu, who also average more than a half-sack per game.
This time around, USC faces a Stanford team whose offensive line continues to get better with each passing week. But the Trojans have too much firepower in their front seven to be denied for having a party in the backfield a few times over the course of Friday night.
3. USC has its own stud tailback in Ronald Jones II
While much of the focus entering the Pac-12 championship game is justifiably on Stanford tailback Bryce Love, don’t sleep on USC’s own superstar in the backfield. Ronald Jones II, in his junior season, has put up big numbers of his own and could go blow for blow with Love on the stats sheet and the Cardinal front seven on the field.
When USC met Stanford last time, Jones carried the ball 23 times for 116 yards and two scores. He didn’t put up as much yardage as Love in that game, but Jones was nevertheless as instrumental to the Trojans win over the Cardinal.
Over the course of the regular season, Jones put up at least 100 yards in eight of the 11 games in which he played. Though he was injured earlier this year and missed the win over rival California, Jones hasn’t lost his ability to pound the rock and keep opponents playing defense for long stretches of the game.
If Jones puts up another strong performance for the Trojans on Friday night, it will keep the Cardinal defense on its heels and provide just the sort of balance that will be required to win a second straight over Stanford.
2. USC has strong special teams all around
Few teams in the country have been playing as well as USC on special teams this season. The Trojans have had issues with punt and kick returns, as their coverage teams rank middle-of-the-pack, but they have more than made up for it with one of the most productive and momentum-killing special teams units in all of FBS football.
When opponents are trying to kick field goals, USC’s special teams unit has been there to snuff out the opportunities. The Trojans currently rank 11th in the nation in terms of blocked kicks, having gotten a hand on four attempts this season. Stanford hasn’t allowed a block yet this season, but if anyone can get enough pressure to end that streak it is Clay Helton’s team.
The Trojans are also great at flipping the field and giving their offense great position after punts and kickoffs. USC ranked third in the Pac-12 throughout the regular season on kick returns, averaging 23.5 yards per return. They were even better returning punts, as they notched nearly 13 yards per punt return over the course of 2017.
Reid Budrovich has been solid at punter, averaging 43.2 yards per boot when required to kick away. And freshman placekicker Chase McGrath has been solid as well, with 86 points after taking over the kicking duties. If the coverage units can stymie Stanford’s returns, USC could be unstoppable on special teams.
1. Sam Darnold will be motivated to head to the NFL as a champion
Redshirt sophomore Sam Darnold hasn’t made a final decision yet, but all signs point to him leaving college after this season. Projected among the top prospects in the country that are eligible to enter the 2018 NFL Draft, Darnold has a shot at landing the first overall pick depending on which team ends up with the selection.
Bolstering his draft stock, though, is just one of many things that will motivate Darnold to perform when he takes on Stanford in what may be his final Pac-12 game. When he faced the Cardinal in September, Darnold threw for 316 yards and four touchdowns on 21-of-26 passing. He did give up two interceptions, but otherwise had a near-perfect game.
After a rough start to the season that saw his Heisman dreams fly out the window, Darnold has been playing once again at a high level. He is completing a higher percentage of his passes than he did last season, with nearly 3500 passing yards in the dozen games of the regular season. The quarterback was a huge reason why USC won the Pac-12 South, and he has performed well on other big stages in the past.
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If he can avoid turning the ball over to one of the most dangerous defensive backfields in the country, Darnold is poised to have yet another big game. He gives USC a legitimate chance in every game that he plays, and the sophomore will hope to go out on top. If he plays like he has over the back half of the season, the Trojans will emerge victorious yet again in their rematch against Stanford.