An all-SEC showdown will take place in Atlanta for the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Here are five bold predictions for Alabama-Georgia.
Alabama and Georgia haven’t played since Kirby Smart left Tuscaloosa to take over the Bulldogs program two years ago. For over a decade, Smart worked alongside Nick Saban at his various stops. Smart was the defensive backs coach for LSU in 2004 before going to Georgia as a running backs coach. He reunited with Saban after just a year apart, working as a safeties coach with the Miami Dolphins before joining the Crimson Tide staff.
Smart played a major role in Alabama’s rise back into a powerhouse, building one top-shelf defense after another. He finally got the chance to take over his own program when his alma mater came calling. A defensive back for the Bulldogs between 1995 and 1998, Smart headed back to Athens and now has them in range of a shot at the school’s first national title since 1980.
First, though, Georgia must go through Alabama. Despite winning the SEC title, the Bulldogs have to play another conference game on the same turf where they beat Auburn for the conference crown. There was plenty of controversy after Alabama got the nod into the College Football Playoff ahead of teams like Big Ten champion Ohio State. Just as they did in 2011, the Crimson Tide earned a chance to play for a national championship despite failing to even win their division.
When given the shot, Saban’s crew earned a spot in its third straight title game with a 24-6 takedown of Clemson. Smart’s Bulldogs mounted a furious comeback to defeat Oklahoma in a historic first-ever overtime Rose Bowl game. In general, it has been a down year for the SEC. But Georgia and Alabama redeemed the season for the league by guaranteeing one of its members will win another national championship.
Will it be the Bulldogs or the Tide walking away with the College Football Playoff trophy? Keep reading for five bold predictions about the 2018 College Football Playoff National Championship.
1. Jalen Hurts will throw at least one interception to Georgia’s secondary
Last year, Jalen Hurts took Alabama to the College Football Playoff championship game against Clemson as a freshman. The young passer had his growing pains, throwing nine interceptions along the way. But Hurts also completed nearly 63 percent of his passes and threw for almost 2800 yards. He also drove Alabama to a go-ahead score in last year’s title game.
Coming into 2017, it seemed like Hurts was poised to take the next leap at quarterback. It wasn’t an otherworldly season for the sophomore, though, as Hurts saw his completion rate and yards per game both drop from his freshman numbers. But one place where Hurts did excel was in terms of protecting the football.
In Alabama’s first 13 games of the season, Hurts has thrown just one interception. That came in a 41-9 win against Arkansas back in mid-October. Hurts might average just 163 passing yards per game, but he also doesn’t give up the football.
At least, he hasn’t given up the football much yet this season. Georgia’s stout defense is going to change that narrative, though. Look for Dominick Sanders or one of the other talented Bulldogs defensive backs to read Hurts downfield and undercut the intended receiver. It might not end up in the endzone for a pick-six, but it’ll come down to whether Hurts can get the tackle on his own interception.
2. Alabama will allow at least 40 points in the title game in Atlanta
Alabama led the country in 2017 in points allowed. The formidable Crimson Tide defense gave up an average of just 11.1 points per game. In a year with some ridiculous scores, nobody managed to put even 30 points on Alabama’s defense. Even Auburn, the source of the Tide’s only loss to date, managed to score only 26 points on their rival.
Much has been said about the Crimson Tide becoming the first team since Florida State to play for three straight national titles. One of the things that seems to be lost in the shuffle is the details of how their defense has performed in semifinal showdowns versus championship games.
Since losing to Ohio State in the 2015 Sugar Bowl, Alabama has shut down every semifinal opponent along the way. The Tide shut out Michigan State 38-0 in the Cotton Bowl two years ago. They then closed down Washington 24-7 in the Peach Bowl last season. In this year’s Sugar Bowl, Alabama gave up fewer than 200 yards as Clemson managed just a pair of field goals.
Against Clemson two seasons ago, Alabama gave up 40 more points than they did to the Spartans. Last year, the Tide gave up four more touchdowns to the Tigers than they did to Washington. This time around, Georgia is going to find the soft spot in the Bama defense and gash the Tide for at least 40 points on the Mercedes-Benz scoreboard.
3. Roquan Smith won’t win College Football Playoff defensive MVP honors
Over the course of the 2017 season, there was a growing call for Roquan Smith to get some love in the Heisman voting. Smith ended up on 21 ballots and finished 10th in the final tally. It was a fitting tribute to the season produced by the junior linebacker, who finished as the highest vote-getter among defensive players.
In the Rose Bowl, Smith had another game for the ages. Smith racked up 11 total tackles, including one tackle for loss. And while he didn’t get a sack, he did a great job of keeping pressure on Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. The quarterback struggled to get comfortable in the pocket, especially in the second half.
Smith played a huge role in that turnaround performance by the Bulldogs. He has been one of the most consistently disruptive forces for Georgia all season long. On Monday night, he will once again be an integral part of the defensive effort as the SEC champions try to tack on the school’s first national title in nearly four decades.
But while Smith will be a critical cog, he will not win defensive MVP honors. That will go to Sanders or whoever walks away with the interception return off Hurts. Or perhaps it could go to someone like defensive lineman Tyler Clark or linebacker D’Andre Walker, who each had a sack and two tackles for loss in the win over Oklahoma.
4. Jake Fromm will win College Football Playoff offensive MVP honors
Nick Chubb and Sony Michel have been consistent forces for Georgia’s offense all season long. The backfield duo has gashed one defense after another to get the Bulldogs into the College Football Playoff National Championship. Against the top rushing defense in the country, though, they will have a hard time putting up the kind of numbers they did in the last game.
At the Rose Bowl, Michel ran for 181 yards and three touchdowns on just 11 carries. Chubb added 145 yards and two rushing scores on 14 carries. Alabama, meanwhile, gave up only 64 rushing yards to Clemson and is holding opponents to an average of under 100 yards per game on the ground.
Something will have to give, and in this case Alabama is going to sell out to stop the run. They will put their confidence in Minkah Fitzpatrick, Levi Wallace, Ronnie Harrison, and the rest of a strong secondary unit. Michel or Chubb will combine to go over 100 yards, but neither one of the pair will get to triple figures himself on the ground.
Instead, Jake Fromm will have another coming-of-age story after his Rose Bowl performance. In Pasadena, Fromm went 20-of-29 for 210 yards and two touchdowns. In Atlanta, Fromm will break out for just the second 300-yard passing game of his college career. A confident game will place Fromm alongside Jamielle Holloway as the only true freshmen to start at quarterback for a national champion.
5. The College Football Playoff field will go to eight teams within five years
As much as college football loves to rest on its laurels and tout its history, the one constant in the sport over time is change. Three decades ago, more than a quarter of the teams at the I-A level weren’t even affiliated with a conference. Two decades ago, the Rose Bowl and its partner conferences were only just coming around to the idea of the Bowl Championship Series.
There was a long battle against the College Football Playoff in the decade before its arrival on the scene in 2014-2015. A four-team bracket ultimately did not cheapen the regular season. Despite plenty of fair arguments against Ohio State in 2016 and this 2017 Alabama team, not even including non-conference champions has tarnished the inevitable excitement of every college football season.
What seasons like this can do, however, is begin the pivot that starts momentum building toward expanding the College Football Playoff field. The shift from the BCS to the Playoff was propelled by the 2011-2012 BCS National Championship, which featured Alabama against LSU. That time the Tide took down their division rival 21-0 for the crystal pigskin, despite losing head-to-head against the Tigers during the regular season.
No matter what happens, this game will be an accelerator for growth.
This year’s circumstances are certainly different. Georgia and Alabama didn’t get the chance to play during the regular season, after Auburn prevented the Tide from reaching Alabama for the SEC championship. They are not regular rivals, playing only sporadically in interdivisional play. The hoopla around the College Football Playoff will swell far more if Alabama wins the title on Monday, but even if the Bulldogs prevail as four-point underdogs there will still be a growing rumble.
For the second straight season, two Power Five conference champs were shut out of the field. UCF, the top Group of Five team and the only undefeated team standing at the end of the 2017 season, was also never given serious consideration for a run at the title. In a down year for the SEC, the two teams at the top of the FBS heap come from the league that has dominated college football for much of the past quarter-century.
That will get the wheels spinning even faster toward expanding the College Football Playoff to eight teams. With James Madison and North Dakota State about to play their 15th game apiece for the FCS national championship on Saturday, player safety is hardly the primary concern when it comes to college football at any level. That is especially true at the highest ranks of the sport.
Next: Alabama’s Playoff pick will accelerate move to 8-team playoff
The monetary value of ensuring each Power Five conference a spot in the College Football Playoff will outweigh any talk of health issues. After all, only two teams would be asked to play at most 16 games. By the 2022-2023 season, we will be talking about which team will emerge from a field of eight rather than just four.