Alabama’s win over Georgia means it is now officially 2018 in college football. How might the preseason AP Top 25 look if it came out before the offseason?
In an overtime thriller at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Alabama rewarded the College Football Playoff selection committee’s choice of them for the No. 4 spot with a 26-23 overtime victory over SEC champion Georgia. The win gave Nick Saban his fifth national championship at Alabama and sixth overall as a head coach.
Now that the dust has begun to settle on the College Football Playoff National Championship, it is never too early to begin thinking about 2018. And what better way to get excited about the year to come than by projecting what the preseason AP Top 25 might look like when it is released eight months from now?
Projecting the preseason polls is always a bit of an inexact science. There are ways, though, to glean how either the AP pollsters or the College Football Playoff selection committee might do in a situation. The fact Alabama was even in this game to begin with is a good tip as to the course of precedent among the committee in future seasons.
But the CFP committee doesn’t release rankings until midseason. That’s why each of the past four seasons and counting have been split into projecting a mash of sometimes conflicting polls and rankings. The longest-running public poll in the sport is approaching its 83rd year of operation in 2018. With the bowl season results, the early signing period scores, and known departures for graduation or the NFL, we can suss where teams might land when the preseason AP Top 25 comes out in August.
Those pollsters will also have the benefit of spring-term practices, the annual spring scrimmages that have become big business in their own right, and early returns from fall camps to get a handle on where teams stand in the pecking order. But for now, let’s take the first in what will be several attempts at projecting the preseason AP poll over the course of the offseason.
Other teams considered
- Texas Longhorns (7-6, won Texas Bowl 33-16 vs. Missouri)
- Boise State Broncos (11-3, won Las Vegas Bowl 38-28 vs. Oregon)
- Utah Utes (7-6, won Heart of Dallas Bowl 30-14 vs. West Virginia)
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-5, won Belk Bowl 55-52 vs. Texas A&M)
- Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5, won Pinstripe Bowl 27-20 vs. Boston College)
- Florida Atlantic Owls (11-3, won Boca Raton Bowl 50-3 vs. Akron)
- Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-4, won TaxSlayer Bowl 31-27 vs. Louisville
Oregon lost the Las Vegas Bowl by 10 points against a Group of Five squad, falling 38-28 to Boise State. Soon after, the Ducks had to deal with the loss of head coach Willie Taggart. The one-year coach bolted Eugene in the game of musical chairs to take over at Florida State.
Gone also are Royce Freeman, the electric tailback who set Pac-12 records throughout 2017, and a slew of defensive stars like Tyree Robinson and Arrion Springs. The Ducks will have to rebuild quickly, especially in a Pac-12 North race that features tough challenges from the Washington schools as well as Stanford and a rising Cal squad.
So why is Oregon projected as one of the teams expected to be ranked in the 2018 preseason AP Top 25? The Ducks bring back a healthy star quarterback in Justin Herbert. When Herbert was on the field in 2017, he piloted one of the most prolific offenses in the entire country. Few teams can match Oregon’s offensive production when the group is all together, and new stars are ready to emerge from Freeman’s shadow.
The Ducks also managed to maintain some continuity despite losing Taggart. Co-offensive coordinator (and former FIU head coach) Mario Cristobal was promoted to Taggart’s position. Oregon also managed to retain defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt, who helped launch a turnaround on that side of the ball.
Texas A&M dropped a high-scoring Belk Bowl to Wake Forest in Charlotte, falling 55-52 with a fourth-quarter comeback by the Demon Deacons. Nick Starkel threw for 499 yards and four touchdowns, offering a solid starter at quarterback to build around in 2018. The ground game left piled up two rushing touchdowns but only 115 net yards.
In that game, the Aggies defense struggled to contain Wake Forest when they had the ball. Youth played a part in that inconsistency on defense throughout the 2017 season, though, and that could translate to better results with a year of muscle memory.
That is especially true given the biggest change in College Station. Kevin Sumlin is out as head coach of the Aggies. Taking his place is Jimbo Fisher, formerly of Florida State. Texas A&M backed up the Brinks truck for Fisher, signing the coach to a 10-year deal worth $75 million.
The Aggies might have lost their bowl game and finished 2017 just 7-6 in the final standings. But the end result of a disappointing season was the irrational excitement of a new era at a sleeping giant of the sport. Signing a coach of Fisher’s stature will by itself boost Texas A&M from those also receiving votes into a spot in the preseason AP Top 25.
Bill Snyder is returning to lead Kansas State next season, after some uncertainty about his future in Manhattan. The Wildcats will get a sentimental bump from pollsters that will hope to see Snyder put together one of his vintage runs at the Big 12 title before riding off into the sunset.
They will read deeply into a 35-17 win over UCLA in the Cactus Bowl. In some ways, the pollsters might read too deeply into that result. The Bruins, playing without NFL-bound Josh Rosen, had a solid day through the air from new starter Devon Modster. The sophomore threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns against the Wildcats defense.
Where Kansas State excelled was in bottling up the run when they didn’t have the ball and churning out hard yards on the ground when they did have the football. The Wildcats quickly went from starter Skylar Thompson back to former starter Alex Delton in a season of musical chairs at quarterback. Delton didn’t offer much more help through the air, finishing 7-of-10 for 52 yards and a touchdown. But he ran 20 times for 158 yards and three scores to fuel the win.
With multiple quarterbacks returning next year, Kansas State is in both an enviable and unenviable position. Expectations will be high, and the Wildcats will land somewhere in the 20s of the preseason AP Top 25 as a result of those expectations.
Three years ago, TCU overcame a 31-point deficit against Oregon to win the Alamo Bowl in overtime. This year, the Horned Frogs pulled off a similar trick against Stanford. Down 21-10 at halftime and 28-16 in the third quarter, Gary Patterson’s squad managed to reverse its fortune and pull off a 39-37 victory in regulation.
The Horned Frogs won despite keeping their defense on the field for over 33 minutes against the tough Cardinal ground game. TCU also coughed up three giveaways, losing the turnover battle in the process. It wasn’t a perfect performance for TCU, but the second-place team from the Big 12 in 2017 has plenty to look forward to in the upcoming year.
Kenny Hill will be gone at quarterback, his eligibility exhausted after transferring three years ago from TCU. So too will be senior running back Kyle Hicks, though Darius Anderson should be back and healthy after suffering a season-ending injury to his right foot. The receiving corps and the right side of the offensive line will also need to be rebuilt after seniors graduated.
As a result, the Horned Frogs will fall lower in the preseason AP Top 25 than they are likely to end the 2017 season. The uncertainty in Fort Worth, though, could be erased quickly with a statement win over Ohio State in mid-September ahead of Big 12 play.
Oklahoma State continues to be one of the most consistent teams in college football, churning out one winning season after another under head coach and alumnus Mike Gundy. After a 4-7 campaign in his first season taking over for Les Miles, Gundy has taken the Cowboys bowling every year since.
In 2017, the Cowboys knocked off Virginia Tech 30-21 in the Camping World Bowl. The win gave Oklahoma State a third straight 10-win season, and its sixth year in double digits in the win column since 2010. While Gundy’s staff has done a good job over the years of reloading and retooling the offense to remain among the most prolific in the country, there will be some tough losses from the 2017 roster.
The chief worry for Gundy and his offensive staff is finding a replacement for Mason Rudolph. In 2017 the senior beat Bedlam rival and Heisman winner to take the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award as the top senior quarterback in the country. Now, after three years of Rudolph at starting quarterback, the Cowboys have a glaring hole at the position.
If not for the loss of Rudolph, Oklahoma State would probably be somewhere in the low-to-mid teens in the preseason AP Top 25 rather than down in the 20s. Finding a replacement at quarterback is always a big if, but if Gundy’s crew can get someone competent under center the Cowboys have the personnel to make another run at 10 wins in 2018.
Will Muschamp has been rebuilding his name after unceremoniously being terminated as the head coach at Florida. Getting his second chance to lead an SEC program, Muschamp guided the Gamecocks to a 9-4 finish after taking down Michigan 26-17 in the Outback Bowl. It was the first time South Carolina reached nine wins since Steve Spurrier’s squad did so in 2013.
In hindsight, South Carolina was only a couple of plays away from turning in an 11-2 season. Losses to College Football Playoff participants Georgia and Clemson were to be expected. Narrow defeats against Kentucky and Texas A&M proved the difference between nine wins and a double-digit campaign.
They get back quarterback Jake Bentley and get to play one of the easier FBS schedules in 2018. South Carolina takes on Coastal Carolina, Marshall, FCS Chattanooga and Clemson in non-conference play. In addition to their SEC East schedule, the Gamecocks drew Texas A&M and Ole Miss in interdivisional play.
Muschamp’s crew will be experienced and tough to beat in 2017, though strength of schedule could cost them with the College Football Playoff selection committee if they manage to keep winning through the first few months of the season. But in the preseason AP Top 25, the pollsters will look at the talent coming back and the big win over the Wolverines in Tampa and give them a spot somewhere in the high teens.
UCF was the darling of the college football postseason, finishing 2017 as the only undefeated FBS team in the entire country. The Knights were shut out of the College Football Playoff by their strength of schedule, but took out their frustrations on an Auburn team that beat both finalists for the national title. The New Year’s Six victory at the Peach Bowl gave UCF its second major bowl win in the past five years.
They return a large portion of the talent that helped get them 13 straight victories. McKenzie Milton is back in Orlando, as are running backs Adrian Killins Jr. and Otis Anderson. They also return the bulk of what was a rather young defense in 2017, which bodes well for their hopes of repeating as American Athletic Conference champions.
Of course, expectations are tempered by the fact that head coach Scott Frost left UCF for the vacant position at his alma mater, Nebraska. Frost returned to coach the Knights in the Peach Bowl, but he is now officially a Cornhusker full-time. It falls to new head coach Josh Heupel to keep Central Florida on track to sustain the momentum of its perfect 2017 campaign.
The AP voters will naturally be a bit skeptical of a first-time head coach taking over in Orlando. Then again, Frost was a first-timer leading a program when he came to town after years as Oregon’s offensive coordinator. Expect the Knights to open 2018 somewhere in the mid-to-high teens as the top-ranked Group of Five team in the AP Top 25.
LSU is going to lose a fair amount of talent from a team that had a Jekyll-and-Hyde season in 2017. The Tigers managed to win nine games in the just-concluded season despite losing their bowl game against Notre Dame. The 21-17 defeat against the Fighting Irish in the Citrus Bowl was all that stood between LSU and its first 10-win season since 2013.
It was a year of highs and lows for Ed Orgeron’s crew. By the end of September, LSU was just 3-2 in the standings after suffering a blowout against Mississippi State and then falling inexplicably to Sun Belt co-champion Troy. The only other losses for the Tigers, though, came against Alabama and Notre Dame.
Derrius Guice will be back for another season in the backfield, a big boost for the Bayou Bengals. They lose Danny Etling, the transfer from Purdue who locked down the quarterback position the past few years. But the defense will still be fearsome, giving the Tigers a legitimate chance in every game they play.
Orgeron’s squad opens the season against the Miami Hurricanes on neutral turf at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. If LSU can return to Baton Rouge victorious from that showdown against the ACC hopefuls, they will be in good position to contend for the SEC West.
Florida State had a rough year in 2017. The Seminoles came into the new season as a top-five team and one of the preseason favorites in the ACC. Then, in the season opener, they lost big to Alabama. More unsettling, though, was the loss of starting quarterback Deondre Francois for the season before the first game came to a conclusion.
Then Hurricane Irma disrupted the season further. By the time the Seminoles returned to the field later in September, they found themselves immediately facing a deficit in the standings. Getting to .500 and bowl eligibility was a madcap scramble for Florida State. In the end, it took rescheduling a game against ULM for championship weekend to get a 12th game in on the regular-season schedule.
But the Seminoles got to .500, and then turned around and resoundingly took down Southern Miss in the Independence Bowl. What they gained in a bowl victory, though, they lost by seeing Jimbo Fisher bolt Tallahassee for Texas A&M. For Florida State, though, it might ultimately prove to be the perfect long-term move after they landed Oregon head coach and Sunshine State native Willie Taggart to take Fisher’s spot.
If Taggart can hit the ground running at Florida State, the team will be in good position to rebound from a year of attrition and hardship. With regression at other division rivals a real possibility, the Seminoles could possibly make another run at the ACC title in 2018 if Francois comes back at the level he was playing before his injury.
There will be no boost up the polls from a bowl win for Michigan in the 2018 preseason AP Top 25. Jim Harbaugh’s crew went down to the Outback Bowl and took a 9-3 into the locker room at halftime against South Carolina. Then the Gamecocks came out from the intermission and adjusted effectively to pull off a runaway 26-17 comeback.
The Wolverines will get a bump up the rankings anyway from the pollsters, after fielding one of the youngest teams in the country in 2017. Despite their inexperience, Michigan held its own in the Big Ten East. Eight wins was respectable for a team that was clearly in rebuilding mode.
But that rebuild will be expected to pay dividends in 2018. There is always some team that is irrationally boosted up the AP Top 25 every preseason. This year it will most likely be Michigan, even after they suffered three straight losses to close out the regular season.
Pollsters will look at the return of so much talent and expect great things from the Wolverines. Either the Wolverines will justify their lofty preseason ranking, or they will be exposed right out of the gate. The rivalry against Notre Dame resumes in the season opener when Michigan heads down to South Bend.
Justin Fuente’s crew fell to Oklahoma State in the Camping World Bowl, but the Hokies look like the team with the far brighter future. While the Cowboys deal with the loss of quarterback Mason Rudolph and a bunch of other talented players, Virginia Tech enters 2018 without any question marks at the most important position on offense.
Josh Jackson threw for nearly 3000 yards as a freshman. He should improve as a sophomore as he adjusts even better to the pace of the college game. Against Oklahoma State, Jackson went 22-of-41 for 248 yards with a touchdown and an interception. It wasn’t the most earth-shattering performance in the air, but Jackson added 50 rushing yards and two scores on the ground to keep Virginia Tech in the contest.
Jackson will be the cornerstone of the 2018 team, especially with the defense a bit greener after the loss of players like defensive tackle Tim Settle. While Miami will still be the favorite in the ACC Coastal, the Hokies will offer a strong challenge to the Hurricanes next season.
Virginia Tech opens the year with a conference road test at Florida State. The non-conference schedule over the rest of September leaves little to be desired, with FCS William & Mary coming to Blacksburg before a home game against East Carolina and a road trip to Norfolk to face Old Dominion.
Auburn took down both teams that played for the College Football Playoff National Championship, but they couldn’t hand defeat to the only team that ended the regular season undefeated. The Tigers looked less motivated than their opponents for the Peach Bowl, and it resulted in a 34-27 defeat in Atlanta on the same field where they lost the SEC championship to Georgia.
Gus Malzahn’s team is going to lose a lot of the key players that drove its success in 2017. Both of Auburn’s top tailbacks, Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway, are both entering the NFL Draft. Gone as well is graduate transfer quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
The defense should still be a force, with only three seniors departing from the starting unit. Outside linebacker Jeff Holland and cornerback Carlton Davis have also declared early for the draft as juniors, but there is still a lot of talent returning. The defensive line will be a point of strength, with the top six in the two-deep all returning.
A showcase matchup opens the season, as Auburn returns to Atlanta for a third straight game. There they will take on Washington on Labor Day weekend in a game that will set the tone for both teams’ seasons.
USC had a lot of question marks heading into the 2018 season. They weren’t helped by a 24-7 loss to Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. The Trojans were rendered one-dimensional by the Buckeyes, as NFL-bound Sam Darnold threw for 356 yards and the running game managed only 1.6 yards per carry.
Still, there was plenty to like about USC’s 2017 season. The Trojans walked away as the Pac-12 champions for the first time since the league expanded to 12 teams. As of the early signing day, Clay Helton has assembled a top-five recruiting class in Los Angeles. And there is plenty of flux in the Pac-12 South, with three of the six teams beginning 2018 with new head coaches.
AP voters, though, are going to have a hard time boosting USC too far up the rankings. They will not enter the new season as the favorite to repeat as Pac-12 champions, at least not until they prove their quarterback situation is settled.
USC get the chance to open eyes early in September. They open with UNLV at home before back-to-back road games against Stanford and Texas. Get through that and a tricky Friday-night #Pac12AfterDark battle against Washington State looms at the Coliseum. The Trojans will open 2018 somewhere in the mid-teens of the AP Top 25, but they could launch up quickly if they reach October 5-0 in the standings.
Washington lost control of the Pac-12 in 2017. The defending champions failed to get past Stanford in the Pac-12 North. In the end, it didn’t matter, as the Huskies still landed a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game. They headed to Arizona for the Fiesta Bowl against Penn State, the first time the two teams had met since the 1983 Aloha Bowl.
Back then, the Nittany Lions won 13-10 in Honolulu. Washington came up on the losing end yet again in 2017 in an exciting 35-28 thriller in the desert. Myles Gaskin was held under 100 yards in his final game with the Huskies, but he rushed for two touchdowns to keep Washington in the contest. Jake Browning went 18-of-28 for 175 yards and a touchdown, but couldn’t get much going against Penn State’s defense.
After losing a lot of defensive talent in the 2017 NFL Draft, players like Vita Vea will be coming out early this season. Chris Petersen has been doing a great job of rotating talent in as players graduate or turn professional, though, and once again Washington should have a dominant defense.
Luck wasn’t on Washington’s side in 2017, as they lost their position atop the Pac-12. But it could be merely a blip on the radar, even with the loss of some key players on both sides of the ball. They will slot in somewhere between No. 10 and No. 16 in the first AP Top 25 of 2018.
The win over LSU in the Citrus Bowl was a nice cap to an otherwise disappointing season in South Bend. Junior receiver Miles Boykin saved the day for the Fighting Irish, snagging a highlight-reel catch with one hand and streaking 55 yards to the winning touchdown inside the final two minutes of the contest.
What was interesting was who threw the touchdown pass to Boykin. Rather than Brandon Wimbush, who threw eight largely ineffective passes before coming out of the game, it was Ian Book who tossed the game-winning touchdown. There could be a quarterback controversy brewing in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus in 2018, mitigating any gains from their bowl win.
Notre Dame will need to find a replacement for running back Josh Adams, who has declared early for the 2018 NFL Draft. Brian Kelly and the offensive staff also need to deal with rebuilding an offensive line that loses three starters from one of the top units in the country in 2017.
Notre Dame always plays a schedule that will keep them in the hunt as long as they keep winning. The dormant rivalry against Michigan will be reignited this year in the season opener, and Notre Dame could quickly jump up from the mid-teens into the top 10 of the AP Top 25 if they take down the Wolverines right out of the gate.
Stanford ended up reclaiming the Pac-12 North title in backdoor fashion. The Cardinal knocked off defending conference champion Washington, then watched the Huskies take down rival Washington State in the Apple Cup. That gave David Shaw’s team the tiebreaker over the Huskies, and sent them into the Pac-12 title game against USC.
A close loss to the Trojans kept the Cardinal out of the New Year’s Six, but they still landed a premier matchup. Stanford was matched against Big 12 losing finalist TCU in the Alamo Bowl. Their first-ever trip to San Antonio wasn’t a great one for Stanford football, though, as they built up a lead and then let the Horned Frogs pull off a comeback.
Stanford seems to have found its quarterback for 2018 and possibly beyond, with K.J. Costello returning again for another year under center. And we haven’t officially heard Bryce Love declare for the 2018 NFL Draft yet, which could be a huge boost to what should be an already strong offense.
If Love comes back, the Cardinal will be ranked somewhere near the top 10. If he is gone, there will be some question marks that will have pollsters put them somewhere closer to the high teens. Either way, Stanford will be in good position to defend its Pac-12 North crown and contend for teh conference title.
After winning 10 straight to start the season, it looked like The U might be back. But a three-game backslide kept the Hurricanes at 10-3 to end the year. The loss to sub-.500 Pitt in the final game before the ACC championship game hurt. Then they were blown out by Clemson, ending any shot at the conference title or a spot in the College Football Playoff.
That still meant a spot in the Orange Bowl, playing with a home-field advantage against Wisconsin. The battle of losing conference finalists offered a shot at redemption for both sides. Wisconsin seized that opportunity, as Alex Hornibrook threw four touchdown passes and freshman tailback Jonathan Taylor finished with 130 rushing yards.
Still, it was a comeback season for the Canes, and it could bode well for future success down the road. Malik Rosier is back at quarterback, and they will also get back key running back Mark Walton after an ankle injury put him out all season. The Hurricanes will once again be the favorite in the ACC Coastal.
They open the year with a statement opportunity against LSU, and if they get past the Tigers the Hurricanes will vault up the AP Top 25. Miami will open up somewhere between No. 9 and No. 12, even when taking into consideration the recency bias of ending the year on a losing streak.
Penn State failed to repeat as Big Ten champions, but unlike 2016 they managed to close out their year with a win in a New Year’s Six bowl game. The Nittany Lions set up a belated showdown of Big Ten and Pac-12 champions from 2016 when they faced Washington in the Fiesta Bowl. In a solid all-around performance, the Nittany Lions walked away victorious from Glendale to cap another 11-win season.
Saquon Barkley racked up 137 rushing yards and two touchdowns in his final game before turning pro. Trace McSorley also put in a huge performance, throwing for 342 yards on 32-of-41 passing. The senior threw two interceptions as well, but atoned with two touchdown passes. DaeSean Hamilton was his favorite target, finishing the night with five catches for 110 yards and both touchdown receptions.
Two of three, save McSorley, will be gone from Happy Valley next season, along with several other upperclassmen. With teams like Michigan State and Michigan back in the Big Ten East race, it will be harder for the Nittany Lions to contend in 2018.
Still, they will get one of the top dozen spots in the preseason AP Top 25 when it is released months from now. Franklin has put together the fourth-best recruiting class in the country as of the December signing day, and a manageable non-conference schedule will open the door for another double-digit winning season.
Michigan State came out of nowhere in 2017 to contend for the Big Ten East title. They took down Michigan and Penn State, but couldn’t close the deal against Ohio State. For a young team, though, it offered a real jolt of hope for a fan base that was hoping 3-9 in 2015 was merely a blip on the radar.
The Spartans will also get a big boost in the preseason AP Top 25 from their 42-17 trouncing of Washington State in the Holiday Bowl. It was a fitting conclusion to a strong first season starting for quarterback Brian Lewerke. The dual-threat star threw for 213 yards and three touchdowns on 13-of-21 passing and added 73 rushing yards in the blowout of the Cougars.
Mark Dantonio’s team enters the new season with a lot of experience throughout its roster. Even if tailback LJ Scott elects to declare for the NFL Draft, the Spartans offense will still be in phenomenal shape in the new season. The passing attack couldget even better with another season of Lewerke building rapport with veteran players like Felton Davis and Darrell Stewart Jr.
Utah State, Arizona State, and Central Michigan mark a manageable non-conference schedule for the Spartans. Michigan State also avoids Wisconsin and Iowa in interdivisional play, though they do have to play Nebraska in Lincoln as well as host Northwestern. Everything lines up for Michigan State to be among the top-ranked teams in the preseason AP Top 25.
Oklahoma missed a chance to play for the College Football Playoff title in 2017, coughing up a lead to Georgia and losing 54-48 in double overtime at the Rose Bowl. Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield threw for 287 yards and two touchdowns, and Rodney Anderson rushed for 201 yards and two scores in the defeat.
Anderson will be back in 2018, and he will be expected to shoulder more of the offensive load with Mayfield off to the NFL. Tight end Mark Andrews and offensive lineman Orlando Brown also declared for the NFL Draft. The Sooners will likely turn to another transfer, Kyler Murray, at quarterback. Oklahoma’s defense at least returns a slew of talent to Norman.
Lincoln Riley has a team that will once again be the favorites to take the Big 12 title. The second-year head coach nearly pulled off the rare feat of winning a national title in the first season in charge of a program, but he could match the success rate of former boss Bob Stoops if he pulls off the feat in year two.
Oklahoma opens 2018 with a tougher-than-expected showdown against Lane Kiffin and Conference USA champs Florida Atlantic. They also face UCLA and Army out of conference, with all three games taking place in Norman. Getting into the top five of the preseason AP Top 25 might be tough with the key losses, however.
Wisconsin earned little respect from the College Football Playoff selection committee even before their Big Ten title game loss to Ohio State. The Badgers were the last unbeaten Power Five team, but they found themselves ranked behind two-loss Auburn and several one-loss squads. Paul Chryst’s team was a relative afterthought for the selection committee.
But they throttled Miami in the Orange Bowl to conclude a 13-1 season, and a slew of talent returns to Madison next season. Freshman sensation Jonathan Taylor will be back to see if he can match his 2000-yard rushing season as a sophomore. Alex Hornibrook, hot off throwing four touchdown passes against Miami, also returns along with a solid offensive line and a deceptively good receiving corps.
The defense will also be among the top in the nation once again. Wisconsin finished third nationally in points allowed and second in the FBS in yards given away. They also controlled the clock, ranking No. 2 in time of possession. The Badgers were one of the most dominant teams of 2017 even if they were rarely recognized as such, and they have the roster to do it again in 2018.
Strength of schedule was the biggest knock against the Badgers in 2017, and it might very well be again next year. They won’t rank in the top five of the preseason AP Top 25 as much because of who they have on the schedule as anything else. Wisconsin plays Western Kentucky, New Mexico, and BYU in non-conference play — all at Camp Randall Stadium.
Georgia coughed up a 20-10 lead after three quarters and ended up losing the College Football Playoff National Championship in overtime. Playing against an Alabama team that they avoided in the SEC title game, the Bulldogs had the Crimson Tide on their heels heading into the locker room at the break.
Even after halftime, Georgia still looked like the better team for the next 15 minutes. Then Alabama found another gear in the final quarter, and only a shanked Andy Pappanastos field goal at the end of regulation allowed Georgia to stay in the game for overtime. But a big touchdown pass ended the contest in heartache for the Bulldogs in their home state.
It was still a season to remember for Kirby Smart’s crew. The Bulldogs won their first SEC title in over a decade, and they did so with true freshman Jake Fromm at quarterback. Georgia’s starting passer should mature even further in 2018, which bodes well for Bulldogs fans.
They have a paper-thin schedule in 2018, opening with FCS Austin Peay and also playing Middle Tennessee, Massachusetts, and Georgia Tech out of conference. Georgia does have to play Auburn and LSU in interdivisional play, but otherwise things line up well for another run at the national championship next season.
Clemson lost their rubber match against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, falling 24-6 to the Crimson Tide in New Orleans. The Tigers were the top-ranked team heading into the College Football Playoff, but the defending national champions missed out on their chance to repeat with the defeat against Nick Saban’s crew.
Clemson struggled to get anything going against Alabama in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Kelly Bryant threw for just 124 yards on 18-of-36 passing, tossing two picks and no scores on the night. The Tigers couldn’t muster even two yards per carry when they elected to run the ball. That Tide dominance could cost Clemson a few spots in the preseason AP Top 25.
Nevertheless, it was still a solid season for Clemson. They found a decent new starter in Bryant after losing multiyear starter Deshaun Watson to the NFL. Clemson also boasted one of the best defenses in the country, giving up fewer than 14 points and 280 yards per game to opposing offenses.
This year, Clemson was able to overcome a surprise loss to Syracuse to reach the College Football Playoff. The Tigers found no serious challengers in the ACC Atlantic in 2017, and they will be the clear frontrunner once again for the conference crown. Vegas is high on the Tigers as well, putting Clemson as the second favorite behind Alabama for the national title.
Ohio State is going to get a long look from AP pollsters in the offseason. After the way things went down in the College Football Playoff, the absence of the Buckeyes from the field seemed even harder to justify. They dominated USC in a 24-7 win in the Cotton Bowl, as the two conference champions met not in Pasadena but instead in North Texas.
The Buckeyes defense gave up 359 yards through the air to Sam Darnold, but they also prevented the NFL-bound quarterback from throwing a touchdown pass. Ohio State also nabbed an interception, and they turned the Trojans one-dimensional. USC managed just 57 rushing yards all night long at AT&T Stadium.
J.T. Barrett will no longer be suiting up at quarterback after a long career for the Buckeyes. But Dwayne Haskins could be even better at quarterback, and Ohio State’s offense also gets back tailbacks J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber. The Buckeyes should be as prolific as ever when they have the ball, and the defense will reload once again around Nick Bosa.
Ohio State is the favorite in what should be a deep Big Ten East race, and Urban Meyer’s team will be in the hunt to return to the College Football Playoff. An opener at home against Oregon State won’t tip the scales, but the Buckeyes also travel to Fort Worth in September to play TCU.
Alabama just keeps finding ways to win, and they did so again to cap a roller-coaster 2017 season. The Crimson Tide were a controversial selection into the College Football Playoff, reaching the four-team field despite failing to win the SEC West. They knocked out Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, setting up an all-SEC final for the national title against Georgia.
The Bulldogs looked the better team for the first three quarters, building up a 20-10 lead heading into the final 15 minutes of regulation. But true freshman Tua Tagovailoa gave the offense a spark, and his southpaw passing proved the difference. His touchdown pass in overtime gave Alabama the winning points and earned his coach a sixth national championship.
Tagovailoa will be back in Tuscaloosa next season, and after his performance in the championship he almost certainly has the starting position locked down for the next few years. He stole the spotlight from Jalen Hurts, coming in after halftime and cracking a tough Georgia defense.
Next: Latest NFL Mock Draft entering bowl season
Entering 2018, Alabama is an odds-on favorite in all quarters. They will open the new year at No. 1 in the AP Top 25, giving themselves another chance to complete an entire wire-to-wire campaign. With their new quarterback, next year’s Alabama team might be the most dangerous fielded yet during the Saban era.