The 2018 NFL Draft is headlined by a contingent of intriguing quarterback prospects. Could this be a record-breaking year for first round passers?
It’s hard to make it far in the NFL without an elite quarterback. Two of the four teams still alive in the playoffs got there on the arms of a passer worthy of MVP consideration. Tom Brady took the Patriots to yet another AFC Championship game while Carson Wentz broke through in Philadelphia to send them to the top seed in the NFC despite his late season injury.
However, just because elite passers are of utmost importance doesn’t mean they grow on trees. “No-brainer” first round selections don’t show up in the draft every season and 2018 is no exception. But that doesn’t fix the demand issue. With a smattering of good to possibly great passers available this season, will the 2018 NFL Draft class break some records?
A tier of six quarterbacks has broken away from the pack. Different Mock Drafts each have some combination of these passers (ranked here in no particular order) with their rankings subjective to personal preference, fandom and project-ability:
The NFL has had four or more quarterbacks drafted in the first round seven times in league history. The most recent occurrence came in 2012 when Andrew Luck (No. 1), Robert Griffin (No. 2), Ryan Tannehill (No. 8) and Brandon Weeden (No. 22) were all first round picks.
Five quarterbacks were selected in 1999 and a record six passers were drafted in the first round in 1983. John Elway was the No. 1 pick in that class with notable signal callers such as Jim Kelly (No. 14) and Dan Marino (No. 27) also taken in the top round. Those six first round selections are even more impressive given the league size – the NFL had just 28 teams that season.
Buyer beware
The more quarterbacks are selected in the first round the higher the “bust-rate” tends to be. A cursory look of these seven draft classes with four or more first round quarterbacks reveals a length list of picks that most teams would rather have had back. Of the four most recent draft classes with four or more first round quarterbacks half of them have been unequivocal busts.
For every Cam Newton (No. 1 overall – 2011) there is at least one Christian Ponder (No. 12 – 2011). That holds true throughout the modern era. The same draft that saw Carson Palmer (No. 1 – 2003) and Byron Leftwich (No. 7) go in the top 10 also saw Kyler Boller (No. 19) and Rex Grossman (No. 22) selected in the first round.
The Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals are all locks to take a quarterback relatively high in the 2018 NFL Draft. Others like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos and Washington Redskins will also be on the lookout. That’s at least nine teams that will be prioritizing the quarterback position this year. The 2018 NFL Draft has plenty of talent, but the quarterbacks are set to make history, at least as far as the number selected in the first round.
With so many needy teams it seems almost certain that history will repeat itself. There’s no telling which passers will pan out and which one’s won’t but history tends to look much kinder of the general manager that drafts Ben Roethlisberger (No. 11 – 2004) than J.P. Losman (No. 22 – 2004).
There’s no rhyme or reason to drafting a quarterback
One good quarterback can mask a roster full of deficiencies. First round quarterbacks are the picks that either elevate a franchise to the next level of set it back multiple seasons. Since 2000 there have been 11 teams to select multiple quarterbacks in the first round. For comparison, there have been just five teams that haven’t drafted a single first round quarterback in that time frame – the Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks.
The Cleveland Browns have become somewhat of the laughingstock of the league when it comes to quarterback issues, but they’re not at the worst offender when it comes to drafting the largest collection of quarterbacks. There have been 209 quarterbacks drafted since 2000. Four teams have drafted 10 quarterbacks – that’s a rate of nearly one QB every other season – the Denver Broncos, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers and Washington Redskins.
There’s not secret bullet. There’s no magic formula. No general manager has figured out which quarterbacks are too good to pass up and which quarterbacks have late-round sleeper written all over them. Every NFL team is going to do their due diligence, but in the end there are still going to be way more quarterbacks drafted in the first round than there probably should be.
Next: Latest 2018 NFL Mock draft following bowl season
Tom Brady was a sixth round pick, No. 199 overall in 2000. Michael Vick was selected No. 1 overall in 2001. There is no rhyme or reason. That’s why they play the games.