With the SEC spotlight shining bright on Oxford, as Ole Miss football looks to stay afloat in the West division in 2018, how will they fare by season’s end?
Ole Miss football was able to exceed expectations in 2017 behind a surprisingly solid performance from two different quarterbacks. Shea Patterson got off to an extremely hot start in 2017, looking like a future Heisman contender at one point. That was until a road matchup with the Cal Golden Bears happened.
After that point, Ole Miss’s offense was not playing at the same level, largely because the production between Patterson and star wide receiver A.J. Brown dipped. Brown still finished out 2017 in an extraordinary fashion, and enters 2018 as one of the nation’s best receivers.
A season ending PCL tear for Patterson, against the LSU Tigers, put the rest of the Rebels’ campaign in major jeopardy. However, dual threat quarterback Jordan Ta’amu made a big splash in his time as the starter.
In just five starts in 2017, Ta’amu totaled 15 touchdowns, and helped the Rebels to a 3-2 mark in SEC play. Most importantly, he led Ole Miss to an Egg Bowl victory over hated in-state rival Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs had a huge injury of their own when do-it-all quarterback Nick Fitzgerald went down with a season-ending ankle issue.
With sanctions still hampering the outlook of Ole Miss football in 2018, now permanent head coach Matt Luke is ready to build momentum for the future of the program. At odds on the recruiting trail, Luke still hauled in the No. 31 ranked class in the nation. That included four-star pro-style quarterback, and the fourth best at his position in the nation, Matt Corral.
Here’s a look at the overall ceiling for the Ole Miss Rebels in 2018, including the outlook on both sides of the ball.
Offensive outlook
While Ta’amu is the likely starter for the Rebels in 2018, Corral could see a load of early playing time in his first season in Oxford. Ta’amu earned his spot with the Ole Miss offense, tossing only four picks last season.
Even outside of taking Ole Miss to a huge win over Mississippi State, Ta’amu also racked up victories over the Kentucky Wildcats and Louisiana-Lafeyette Ragin Cajuns. He nearly took Ole Miss to wins over the Arkansas Razorbacks and Texas A&M Aggies.
Brown highlights a receiving corps that will be among the best in the SEC in 2018. He’s surrounded by talents like DaMarkus Lodge and D.K. Metcalf, who had big years in 2017. And, Ole Miss brought in two four-star wide receivers that could have an immediate effect in Houston, TX, native Miles Battle and Fort Lauderdale, FL, native Elijah Moore.
The loss of the reliable and standout running back Jordan Wilkins is a major gap to fill for the Ole Miss offense. Wilkins was a 1,000 yard rusher that was a large factor in Ole Miss reaching the amount of wins needed for bowl eligibility.
He was also the first Rebels running back to eclipse the thousand yard mark while also averaging at least 6.5 yards per carry since former Kansas City Chiefs running back/wide receiver Dexter McCluster did it back in 2009. That’s some big shoes to fill for whoever takes over as the Rebels starting running back. Yet, the likely starter is rising junior Eric Swinney.
Defensive Outlook
The Ole Miss defense definitely had its fair share of ups and downs in 2017. They will also lose a few key pieces, especially along the defensive line. Those are the losses that are going to be the toughest to account for entering the upcoming SEC slate.
Some of those losses include defensive end and Senior Bowl standout Marquis Haynes, would-be rising senior Breeland Speaks, and cornerback and NFL Draft prospect Ken Webster. There’s some key pieces missing at all three levels of the defense. But, it’s nothing that Ole Miss hasn’t shown they can replace in the past five years.
The way the defense played in the final four weeks of the year, especially against ULL and Mississippi State is exactly what’s needed again in 2018. Ole Miss has the offensive firepower to put up numbers on the scoreboard, but they had some tough outings to bounce back from.
Giving up 66 points to the Alabama Crimson Tide, 44 points to the Auburn Tigers, and 38 points to Arkansas is something that cannot happen if Ole Miss wants to build something significant in 2018. The development of the secondary with key players like safety duo Myles Hartsfield and Zedrick Woods.
The main x-factor for the Ole Miss defense in 2018 is showing the promise that they will once again play at the level seen a few years ago. The run defense gave up nearly 250 yards per game, and around 2.5 touchdowns in 2017. Improve that marker, and the results will come through.
Conclusion
Determining the outcome of the 2018 campaign for the Ole Miss football program ultimately boils down to the play of the defense. When the Rebels are playing at a high level defensively, they’re always a threat to win at least eight games.
Even with a down season on that side of the ball in 2017, Ole Miss still managed seven wins. And, that was all while the quarterback situation was in flux. Any team that lost their star quarterback halfway through a grueling SEC West grind would have seemingly been toast.
Luke instills a lot of fight in his squads, and that was on full display last year. Another big year from Ta’amu, or Corral for that matter, and the run defense stepping up can help the Rebels out a ton. The incoming freshmen class also has to buy into the culture that Luke is putting in place.
Next: Takeaways from Ole Miss's 2017 season
So, what is the ceiling for the Rebels in 2018? Winnable contests come against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Kent State Golden Flashes, Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, Vanderbilt Commodores, Southern Illinois Salukis, the Razorbacks, and Commodores. Win the games that their supposed to, and give some of the top teams in the conference a run for their money and Ole Miss has an even better time in 2018 than they did last year.