Boise State Football: Broncos break through in 2018

Boise State football regained its crown in the Mountain West in 2017. Can the Broncos go a step further and return to Group of Five supremacy in the upcoming season?

The college football landscape was flipped upside down in 2014 for Boise State. With the shift to the College Football Playoff, the dynamic changed for Boise State in terms of access to major bowl games. No longer did they have to be perfect as they did in the BCS Buster days. More significantly than that, however, was the departure of Chris Petersen to take the head job at Washington.

Petersen took the Broncos from emerging power to arguably the most consistently dominant program of the 21st century. While 2014 had a huge impact on Boise State’s present and future, though, change first erupted with the shift from the WAC to the Mountain West three years earlier. The step up in competition was a blessing and a curse, as it helped to further legitimize the Broncos while at the same time making it harder to get to the top of the mountain.

In that first year of life after the BCS, Boise State earned the Group of Five’s automatic bid into a New Year’s Six bowl as the Mountain West champ. They knocked off Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl, helping validate the hire of Bryan Harsin as Petersen’s replacement. But getting back to that point has been elusive.

Boise State lost out to undefeated UCF last year. They did, however, still manage to snag their first Mountain West title since their most recent Fiesta Bowl appearance. A few key players are no longer in Boise, but for the most part the bulk of the 2017 team returns for the title defense. Let’s look at the offense and defense before evaluating the schedule and seeing if there will be celebrations on the Smurf Turf in December.

Offense

Brett Rypien is back in 2018 at quarterback, but he will once again have to find new favorite targets. The top receiver and top tight end are both departed from the Smurf Turf. Cedrick Wilson and Jake Roh combined to haul in 122 receptions for 1921 yards and 16 scores, the majority from Rypien. A.J. Richardson is at least back to offer one familiar and experienced target.

On the other hand, gone is is Montell Cozart. The Kansas graduate transfer pushed Rypien in 2017 and served as occasional dual-threat change of pace for the offense. That means Rypien is once again the man in charge. As such, a successful campaign offensively is dependent on how quickly Rypien and his new corps of pass catchers connect with one another.

Two of the five starters on the line are gone, including all-MWC center Mason Hampton. But the Broncos return five players with starting experience on the offensive line. A team that ranked middle-of-the-road as the 60th-best team in both sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed should be better with a more experienced group all around, even with those losses.

Focusing on Alexander Mattison

Last year was a season of transition for the Boise State backfield. Jeremy McNichols was the latest Broncos tailback to land an NFL gig. His departure opened the door for Ryan Wolpin and Alexander Mattison to split carries.

The committee approach worked for the Broncos in 2017. But now Wolpin has graduated, and this is Alexander Mattison’s season to break out on a national level. Last year, Mattison led the team with 1086 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. Mattison added 284 receiving yards and a score through the air.

The junior could see those numbers explode as he chases 2000-plus all-purpose yards. With Robert Mahone itching for playing time, there is plenty of incentive for Mattison to perform well just to keep his starting spot. That should play into Boise State’s favor and benefit the junior as he builds his own NFL case.

Defense

Almost all of Boise State’s defensive talent is returning from the 2017 Mountain West championship team. That bodes well for any chances the Broncos might have of representing the Group of Five in one of the New Year’s Six bowl games this season.

Last year’s team ranked 17th in the FBS against the run and 22nd nationally in total yards allowed per game. The Broncos gave up fewer than 20 points in eight of their 14 contests in 2018. Of course, they also thrice gave up more than 40 points with a hit-or-miss style that gambled correctly frequently but hardly inevitable.

With another year of experience, one of the most veteran units in the country should improve on its numbers across the board. Only one starter from the 2017 roster is off to the pros after last season, which should give everyone else in the Mountain West pause before dreaming of a possible title.

Focusing on the linebackers

Of course, the one starter that Boise State did lose from the 2017 team might be the most critical to the defensive success of the Broncos. Leighton Vander Esch was a disruptive force at linebacker, ranking fifth nationally in solo tackles and forcing seven turnovers (four forced fumbles, three interceptions) over the course of the year.

The dominant campaign led the Dallas Cowboys to draft Vander Esch in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Luckily there is plenty of experience in the unit to pick up the torch and keep it alight. Riley Whimpey or Blake Whitlock look like the most likely candidates to step in for Vander Esch at the second level. Idaho graduate transfer Tony Lashley could also make a major impact after back-to-back 100-tackle seasons for the Vandals.

Tyson Maeva is back as the starter at middle linebacker, offering some stability in the corps. All things told, the combination of talents should be enough to passably make up for the departure of one otherworldly talent.

2018 Boise State Schedule and Predictions

Boise State opens the year with a trip to Alabama for the return game against Troy. A week later, Connecticut visits Boise for the 2018 home opener at Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos hit the road again right away, with a tough trip to Stillwater to face Oklahoma State. That could be a winnable contest, especially with Mason Rudolph and James Washington graduated.

Coming out of a bye week, conference play begins with a tough trip to face off against Wyoming. San Diego State visits Idaho to begin October play, and they also get Colorado State at home on a Friday night. In between those contests, the Broncos travel to Reno to face WAC nemesis Nevada.

Road games against Air Force and New Mexico close out the Mountain West road schedule. BYU comes to Boise at the beginning of November for a non-conference showdown. Fresno State battles for the Milk Can in a rematch of last year’s conference championship. And the regular season concludes with a home showdown versus Utah State two days after Thanksgiving.

What’s next for Boise State?

Last year’s contest against Troy was no cakewalk. The 11-point margin of victory belies the slugfest that Boise State endured, and the Trojans will be intent on repaying the favor to the Broncos when they host them this season. Boise State must be vigilant about this potential trap game lest they lose their shot at a New Year’s Six game before the season really even begins in earnest.

Prediction: 13-0 (8-0 MWC)

This year could be the year that tests the College Football Playoff committee. With UCF potentially looking at an undefeated run of their own, the committee could have two undefeated Group of Five champions to pick between for the automatic New Year’s Six bid.

Boise State will get back on track against Power Five competition with a statement win in Stillwater, and that could tip the scales in their favor for the Access Bowl invitation.