It will always be tough for a Group of Five player to factor into the Heisman race. Here’s what it would take for McKenzie Milton to win the award in 2018.
Last year, McKenzie Milton took the college football world by storm. The sophomore UCF quarterback led Scott Frost‘s high-powered attack to a perfect record in 2017. On the way to 13-0, Milton put up some big numbers and showcased skills with both his arm and his legs. He was the catalyst for both a dangerous aerial attack and a shifty option attack on the ground.
With Frost off to Nebraska, it will be interesting to see if UCF can maintain the nation’s longest winning streak. In many ways it will all depend on how well the junior quarterback adjusts to a new offensive philosophy. Under new head coach (and offensive coordinator) Josh Heupel, Milton has the potential to take even more snaps and carve up defenses even more in 2018.
Last year, Milton managed to earn only 54 of a possible 2787 points in the Heisman balloting. That was good enough for eighth in a race that was bloated at the top of the field. What would it take to push Milton over the top into the stratosphere of contenders? What would it take for him to join Ty Detmer among small-conference winners of the Heisman Trophy?
Just as there are with any Group of Five candidate for a Heisman bid, there are plenty of obstacles standing in Milton’s way of the Heisman. Here’s what it would take to get the UCF star to the top of the ballots in 2018.
5. Milton will have to lead the country in passing efficiency
Last year, McKenzie Milton finished behind only Heisman winner Bakery Mayfield when it came to the FBS passing efficiency rankings. This year, Milton will need to at least duplicate his efficiency figure if not surpass it to rank atop the category.
What would it take to make Milton actually viable as a Heisman candidate, though, in terms of his passing efficiency? Since 2000, there have been 15 quarterbacks to win the Heisman Trophy. Omitting Eric Crouch‘s triple-option bid, which skews the data in a way that does Milton no benefit, let’s look at the other 14 winners.
Of that group, the average passing efficiency was just over 170. But that will hardly cut it for a Group of Five quarterback hoping to make a serious Heisman run. A passing efficiency score of 180 or better would begin to put Milton into Heisman territory. Six of the previous 14 quarterback winners posted passing efficiency ratings over 180.
If he can get close to 190 points, he would be nearly a lock to make it happen. Only Mayfield has ever previously pulled off the feat, and he won the Heisman in a landslide. Of course, UCF is not Oklahoma, and the AAC is not the Big 12. But finishing atop the passing efficiency rankings a year after coming second to Mayfield in the category is a great start.
4. Milton will have to rush for at least 12 touchdowns in 2018
On the road to 13-0 in 2017, McKenzie Milton showed that he is a genuine dual-threat quarterback. The sophomore showcased his wheels to run for 613 yards on 5.8 yards per carry. Along the way, Milton also punched in eight touchdowns on the ground.
That skill will need to be showcased more frequently in 2018 if Milton hopes to have a serious run at the Heisman. Lamar Jackson had 21 touchdown runs during his Heisman campaign. Mariota finished with 15 rushing touchdowns in 2014. Johnny Manziel had 21 touchdowns, Robert Griffin III punched in 10, and Cam Newton scored 20 on the ground.
More: Every Johnny Manziel game at Texas A&M, ranked
Milton won’t need to get quite that high, as not every quarterback had to be a dual threat to win the award. But because he has shown himself to have potential running the ball, UCF’s passing star will need to improve on last year’s numbers to have a shot at staying alive and moving up the Heisman hierarchy.
Given his number of carries has remained steady at or just over 100 carries per season, Milton will need to improve his yards per carry over nine to get to 1000 yards. More likely is a combination of increased carries and increased yards per carry. Even if the Knights’ offensive leader doesn’t get quite to 1,000 yards, he will need to score at least a dozen touchdowns on the ground to have a Heisman shot.
3. Milton will have to throw at least 40 touchdown passes this year
A dual-threat quarterback needs to be a threat not just with his legs but also through the air. Milton showed in 2017 that he is capable of carving up defenses with his arm. On seven occasions, he threw for more than 300 yards. Twice, Milton finished over 400 passing yards.
More importantly, though, Milton posted multiple passing touchdowns in 10 of his 13 games in 2017. Milton had five-touchdown outings against Cincinnati and against Memphis in the AAC championship game. Three other times the UCF quarterback passed for four touchdowns. In general, Milton was good for at least two touchdowns per game and usually more.
This year, Milton will once again need to be profligate through the air. The leader of the Knights offense needs to up his touchdown rate further in 2018. Last year, Milton threw an average of 2.85 touchdowns per outing. This year, Milton needs up his game to at least three touchdowns per game on average.
Do that, and Milton is in position to score at least 40 touchdowns by the time Heisman voting concludes. If he can manage to score at least 50 total touchdowns between his arm and his legs, Milton will have a great shot at getting more than just a token invite to the Downtown Athletic Club on the second weekend of December.
2. Milton will have to lead the nation’s top-ranked offense once again
The 2017 UCF offense was the best in the country. UCF ranked first in scoring in the FBS, averaging 48.2 points per game. The Knights ranked second in turnover margin, thanks in large part to finishing in the top 20 in fewest fumbles lost and fewest interceptions thrown. And the team ranked second behind just Oklahoma in terms of passing efficiency.
Milton’s 3700 passing yards and 600-plus rushing yards were a large part of why UCF succeeded in 2017. It was a boon for a program that was just two years removed from finishing the year 0-12. Milton’s productivity opened the door for an increased tempo on offense and more chances to take down opponents.
For the UCF quarterback to earn some serious Heisman consideration in 2018, he needs to once again lead the nation’s top-ranked offense. The Knights will be competing with their 2017 statistics, and Milton would do well to lead UCF to an average of more than 50 points per outing. If he managed to do that, Milton would have a serious Heisman case.
But even with all of that, there is still once more ingredient that is critical for any Group of Five player hoping to reach Manhattan and hoist the Heisman Trophy. Just as with any other candidate, winning is a critical component. For mid-major Heisman hopefuls, wins are essential.
1. Milton will have to lead undefeated UCF back to the New Year’s Six
Players like Tim Tebow and Robert Griffin III were able to sustain multiple losses en route to picking up the Heisman Trophy. A candidate like McKenzie Milton has no such margin for error. Even with massive stats that dwarf his production from 2017, he will have no chance at the Heisman unless he once again runs the table with the Knights.
If UCF managed to win a second straight American Athletic Conference crown and complete a run of 26 consecutive victories, Heisman voters would be forced to sit up and notice. The College Football Playoff selection committee would undoubtedly slot the Knights into another New Year’s Six bowl game in that scenario, and they might even be considered for a berth in the Playoff proper.
Thus Milton’s case for the Heisman comes down to a symbiosis of his individual stats and how well it correlates to team success. If the UCF quarterback can put up big numbers en route to a second straight undefeated regular season, he would have just as good a case as any other Heisman contender.
The most efficient quarterback in the country, on the most potent scoring offense in the FBS, piloting the team on by far the longest winning streak in the nation? All of that would add up to a Heisman Trophy for McKenzie Milton in 2018.