Stanford football: (Bryce) Love is all Stanford needs

Stanford football is looking to bounce back from a 9-5 season. They’ve got the talent, and the schedule to make a playoff run. Can they get the job done?

Stanford football under David Shaw really doesn’t need a ton of introduction. Every college football fan has a pretty good grasp on what Stanford football is all about. For the past decade or so, they’ve been a power run first team, that dominates in the trenches and with defense. David Shaw has become extremely good at building the perfect roster for that system.

2018 is no different in Palo Alto. The Cardinal return a massive chunk of their offense, and the defense, while a bit younger than usual, should be excellent as always. However, last season was a bit strange for Stanford. Despite winning the Pac-12 North, they finished with five losses, in a really odd 9-5 record.

They dropped games to USC (twice), SDSU, Washington State and TCU, and while those are all good teams, I can’t imagine they were satisfied with that finish. The good news is that they basically get to run it back. Almost every contributor on the offense is back. The defense has star power and some really exciting young players.

The schedule isn’t easy, but it’s not awful. If they find a quarterback and get a little better against the pass, this could be a double-digit win team. If they find a good quarterback and a top 20 defense, they could be headed for the College Football Playoff.

Offense

Stanford’s biggest issue last year, and for the past few years, was at the head of their offense. After losing Kevin Hogan, the Cardinal have struggled quite a bit with quarterback play, stumbling through signal callers that either aren’t accurate enough, aren’t strong enough, or can’t throw at all.

Keller Chryst stunk last year, but Stanford did seem to find somewhat of a solution in K.J. Costello. He wasn’t great, but he’s good enough to keep the offense afloat. If he’s healthy, and if he’s better than he was last year, Stanford’s offense may finally return to the efficient approach of years past that they lacked last year.

Everyone already knows who will be joining Costello in the backfield. Bryce Love is one of the best running backs in the country, and he could be even better this season. If he can stay healthy, and improve his production even more, he could be headed for a Heisman. With an awesome line in front of him, and what seems to be a good quarterback beside him, Love should be even better this year. He’s can’t miss television, and you need to be watching him this fall.

Pretty much every good receiver is back too. JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Trenton Irwin, tight end Kaden Smith and Connor Weddington will all make great targets for Costello. This is one of the best receiver rooms in the conference, and if Costello is just decent, they should be able to keep him afloat and lead Stanford to more than nine wins.

Four of five starters return up front, and should be improved after a pretty solid year last year. There will be a new face at left guard (probably Devery Hamilton), but seniors Jesse Burkett and A.T. Hall, as well as guard Nate Herbig and former five-star tackle Walker Little will be able to open massive holes for Bryce Love.

Making the routine plays

Last year, the biggest thing that Stanford struggled with was their inability to pick up yardage consistently. They were awesome with big plays, but the passing attack was too stagnant too often, and Bryce Love was stuffed too many times. Stanford can’t compete for the playoff on big plays alone, and they probably won’t even win the Pac-12 North.

They need the line to be better, and they need the quarterback play to improve. If they get that and are able to move the ball well on good defenses, this should be one of the best offenses in the country.

Defense

Stanford’s defense is in a bit of a strange place. They weren’t great against anything last season, but they weren’t really awful against anything either. They allowed 42 points to USC in their first meeting, 31 in their second meeting, 39 to TCU, and 34 in a win over UCLA. Every other game, however, they held opponents under 24, even in losses to Washington State and San Diego State.

They also didn’t really have any excellent games though. They held Rice and Oregon to single digits, but every other team was able to do at least some damage, and sometimes that was enough to keep it close, or even win. They held two of the league’s worst teams in Oregon State and Cal to 14 points each and won those two games by a combined four points.

Stanford’s defense was hurt a lot by the inefficiency last season. If the offense improves, the defense should too.

They do have some of their own problems to address first though. Two of their three linemen are gone, as are two linebackers and a corner. They’ve got talent though. Can the young guys step up?

Stanford Cardinal Football

Up front, end Dylan Jackson will have to be the veteran leader, because nose tackle Dalyn Wade-Perry is a redshirt freshman, and the other end, Jovan Swann, is a sophomore. They were both pretty highly touted (the former more than the latter), and while Wade-Perry obviously didn’t play, Swann was pretty good in limited time.

The line will continue to rotate like it usually does, so these won’t be the only three that matter. Freshman Andres Fox and redshirt freshman Ryan Johnson should see time at end, and we may even get a bit of Andrew Pryts out of his usual linebacker spot, and up to the line. Inside, Michael Williams and Bo Peek should take some stress off of Wade-Perry.

Linebacker is in a pretty similar spot. Both outside linebackers from last year are gone, but both inside linebackers return, and the backups have plenty of experience because of injury issues last year. Bobby Okereke could be a Pac-12 All-Conference player by the end of the year, and if Sean Barton stays healthy, he should be a great complimentary player. Jordan Perez is there at middle linebacker too, so they should be able to rotate those three.

Outside is a much bigger question. Senior Joey Alfieri has plenty of experience, but he’s never been the guy. This year he is, and he’ll have to play like it, by consistently making plays and staying on the field. He can’t be a specialist anymore. Across from him, redshirt freshman Gabe Reid is a former three-star, pass rush specialist. He’s brand new and could struggle.

There are way more experienced players in the linebacker depths than up front. Casey Toohill, Jordan Fox, Curtis Robinson, and even Perez could all find time on the outside. I think Toohill will likely shoulder the majority of the load at the other OLB spot, but any number of these guys could fill in.

The backfield is probably the best part of this defense. Alijah Holder is back at corner and should be pretty good in a lockdown, number one cornerback spot. Safeties Ben Edwards and Frank Buncom are both awesome when healthy. They’re big playmakers and could be a huge part of this defense being better against the pass this year.

The new number two corner will probably be either redshirt freshman Paulson Abedo, senior Alameen Murphy, or sophomore Obi Eboh. I’m not confident that any of them will be great, but they should at least be pretty good. Safety Brandon Simmons will also likely find playing time, either as a slot corner, nickel safety, or a hybrid linebacker.

Replacing Phillips and Reid

The two best players from this defense last year are now in the NFL. Defensive tackle Harrison Phillips is on the Bills, and safety Justin Reid is with the Texans. They were both crucial parts of this defense last year, and replacing their production is a huge concern for this defense. I think Reid will be easier to replace, because of the talent and depth at safety.

Phillips is another story. Stanford’s depth up front, especially in the middle, leaves a lot to be desired. Their rotation won’t be able to replace Phillips, and that’s a huge issue. Stanford has to play against great running backs in Juwan Washington, Stephen Carr, Zack Moss, Myles Gaskin, Patrick Laird, and whatever Chip Kelly throws at them. That’s brutal.

This is a pretty manageable schedule, relative to Stanford’s talent level. Their non-conference slate isn’t too bad, as I think they’ll be favored against SDSU and UC Davis, and Notre should be a toss-up. Their conference matchups aren’t terrible either. They get USC at home, and there really aren’t any awful stretches here.

The first month or so will be pretty tough though. of their six toughest games this season come within less than a month of each other, and two of them are on the road. If Stanford can get out of that stretch with three wins, I really only see one other toss-up on this schedule, on the road against Washington.

Prediction: 10-2

Stanford kicks off the season with a bang, winning their first four games, including statement wins over USC and Oregon. I think the momentum is short-lived though, as they drop a game to Notre Dame in South Bend. Three more wins over Utah, Arizona State and Wazzu put them at 7-1, and send them into a huge matchup with a Washington team that I think will be 8-1 entering this game. If Stanford wins, they win the Pac-12 North. I don’t think they pull it off though.

They do win their last three though, but it’s not enough to overcome Washington, who heads to the Pac-12 title game instead. If Stanford wins that game, they could be playoff bound. This season will likely come down to what happens against USC, Notre Dame, and Washington. If they take two of the three, I think they’re playoff bound.