USC Football: Can Clay Helton get over the hump in 2018?

Clay Helton enters his third full season at the helm of the Trojans. Can USC football survive the departure of Sam Darnold to repeat as Pac-12 champions in 2018?

At some level, it feels strange to realize that Clay Helton has served as the head coach of USC for just two full seasons. Helton first joined the Trojans in 2010 as the quarterbacks coach for Lane Kiffin. When Kiffin was fired and Orgeron left before the bowl game in 2013, Helton took on the interim tag for the Las Vegas Bowl victory over Fresno State. Two years later, when Steve Sarkisian was canned, Helton once again wore the interim label for nine games.

The 2015 season ended with two straight losses, as USC fell to Stanford in the Pac-12 championship game and Wisconsin in the Holiday Bowl. But the fact that the Trojans even made it to the conference title game and earned a solid bowl berth was enough to earn Helton the full-time gig.

Those first two years of full-time leadership have coincided with a bit of a resurgence in Los Angeles. Helton’s Trojans went 10-3 in 2016. Though they finished second in the Pac-12 South, USC still earned a Rose Bowl bid on the strength of eight straight wins and Washington’s inclusion in the College Football Playoff. There they played an instant classic in a comeback victory over Penn State.

Last year the Trojans did one better and won the Pac-12 title for the first time since the league expanded to a dozen teams. Now Helton will try to take the next step and get USC into the College Football Playoff for the first time ever. Can the Trojans contend for a national title in 2018 despite losing a talented core group of players? Let’s evaluate the offense and defense before looking at Southern California’s schedule and assessing their chances for 2018.

Offense

Last year’s USC team featured a relatively dominant offense. After the buildup of the fireworks in the Rose Bowl that capped the previous year, though, the Trojans felt at times like they had flamed out. Now they get a chance to start fresh, which could either take the team to a new level or cause them to crater back to the middle of the pack in the Pac-12 South.

On paper, the team lost six starters from the 2017 offense. Of those starters, three were among the five most impactful skill players on the roster last year. Workhorse running back Ronald Jones II went in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Players who produced more than 70 percent of last year’s offensive yardage are now gone.

Some key pieces do return, though. Stephen Carr will step into Jones’ spot in the backfield. Young receivers like Tyler Vaughns, Randal Grimes, and last year’s top-rated receiving recruit Amon-Ra St. Brown have the opportunity to step up immediately. St. Brown has been vocal about his Heisman aspirations out of the gate, so he will be an especially fun star-in-the-making to watch.

Focusing on the quarterback situation

The key to USC’s success or failure in 2018, though, falls on the shoulders of whoever steps up to replace Sam Darnold at quarterback. Two years ago, Helton was in a similar situation when Cody Kessler graduated. Initially, Helton opted to go with experience and put Max Browne in as the starter. Once he finally turned to the redshirt freshman Darnold, everything clicked for the Trojans.

Last year, teams had some book on Darnold and dealt him the slightest of sophomore slumps. But Darnold still threw for more than 4000 yards and piloted the Trojans to a conference title. Even though his touchdown-to-interception ratio dropped by more than a full point, he still went third overall in the 2018 NFL Draft to the New York Jets.

Now Helton and offensive coordinator Tee Martin have another tough choice. Right now redshirt sophomore Matt Fink looks like the third-best option behind redshirt freshman Jack Sears and true freshman JT Daniels. The latter of the trio is starting to gain an edge despite missing out on spring practice. Helton might elect to go young, in a make-up for his earlier mistake with the Darnold/Browne decision.

Defense

While most of the focus this offseason centered on the loss of Sam Darnold and a slew of offensive talent, the defense will also have to deal several high-impact departures. While they won’t be hurting as much as the offense, USC’s defense must replace four starters from last year’s starting unit.

Honestly, though, USC could stand to retool its defense. The Trojans ranked just 60th nationally in points allowed, giving up more than 26 points in an average game. Opponents racked up almost 400 yards per outing, including nearly 160 rushing yards. While the USC defense had some solid performances in 2017, they held opponents under 20 points only twice all season.

Not all is lost in the talent department, though. Top tackler Cameron Smith returns to his linebacker post where he is adept at cleaning things up at the second level. Christian Rector could also be a major disruptive force on the edge this year. And Porter Gustin is also back after an injury-marred 2017 campaign.

The Trojans should also get better this year at defending the pass, as four of their top five defensive backs return in 2018. Losing Chris Hawkins to the NFL was always going to be tough, but the talent is in place for the secondary to step up in a big way this season.

Focusing on the front five

The back end of the defense will need to hold up its end of the bargain, because defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast lost three of the five main pieces of his favored five-man front. Gone are defensive end Rasheem Greene and defensive tackle Josh Fatu. The duo combined for 16 sacks and 20.5 tackles for loss, tough production to replace on its own.

That is even before one considers the loss of do-everything edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu. Among the recent crop of hybrid linebacker/ends, Nwosu was a disruptive force in 2017. After a season where Nwosu racked up 9.5 sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss, a forced fumble, an interception, and a dozen other pass breakups, he earned a second-round pick from the Seattle Seahawks in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Replacing that trio, with 25.5 sacks and 32 tackles for loss among them, will be incredibly difficult. We could see more 4-2-5 looks from Pendergast this season as he relies more heavily on his secondary to do the lifting against Pac-12 passing attacks.

2018 USC Schedule and Predictions

The Trojans get to ease into the 2018 season with a home opener against UNLV on the first of September. That eases USC into back-to-back road games against Stanford and Texas teams that will probably both be ranked at the time. On the return home, the Trojans only get six days before the Friday-night showdown against Washington State. That precedes a divisional battle against Arizona to close out the month of September.

Unlike last year’s hellish run, the Trojans get to take a bye week to start off the month of October. Then they get Colorado at home before a trip to Salt Lake City to square off against Utah. Arizona State visits the Coliseum on the last Saturday of October.

Oregon State has often been a thorn in USC’s side, and they will have to watch out for the trip to Corvallis at the beginning of November. Cal comes to Los Angeles the following weekend to kick off a trio of rivalry weekends. A date with Chip Kelly and UCLA at the Rose Bowl follows the showdown with the Golden Bears. Notre Dame comes to California to close out the 2018 regular season.

What’s next for USC?

Let’s face it. USC will probably overlook UNLV, just like they did Northern Illinois last year. The Rebels are likely nowhere near as good as the Huskies were last year, but it will probably be sloppier than necessary. USC will have its focus on the following week’s date with Stanford in Palo Alto, a rematch of last year’s Pac-12 title game that will have serious conference implications for both teams this year.

Prediction: 10-2 (8-1 Pac-12)

It is going to be an odd beginning to the season for the Trojans. An early win against UNLV won’t be quite as crisp as expected, and Stanford will outpace USC’s inexperienced offense in their rematch. A loss in Austin could follow, setting up the Trojans as a 1-2 team to start the year.

It will look like disarray, but then again we’ve been here before. Wins over Washington State and Arizona will have things back on course heading into the bye week. Coming out of the break, USC will be more composed as the offense really begins to click. A run of nine straight wins to cap the regular season will have USC among the hottest teams in the country entering conference championship week.

Then it will be a matter of needing to win over the North champ (probably either another Stanford rematch or a matchup with Washington) to have a shot at a spot in the College Football Playoff. Even then, a two-loss Trojans team could have a hard case to sell unless Texas goes on to win the Big 12 and is a lock for the Playoff field.

But Clay Helton has the Trojans on path to keep reloading rather than needing to rebuild. Year 3.5 of the Helton regime is the big test of whether that goal has been achieved or not.