Stanford avenged its 2017 loss to San Diego State to open the season. Here are five reasons the Cardinal will keep the winning ways going against USC.
Last year, Stanford lost twice against USC. They first lost in September to the Trojans, falling 42-24 in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to kick off Pac-12 play. Then they tumbled in the rematch in the Pac-12 championship game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, falling 31-28 close to home.
But 2018 is a new year, and Stanford has far more returning talent on offense and defense than the Trojans. They started the year with an emphatic 31-10 victory over San Diego State, exorcising the demons that plagued them after falling to a Group of Five foe in 2017. Now Stanford is looking at staying at the top of the Pac-12 North and getting a second chance at the conference crown.
According to OddsShark.com, the Cardinal average out to a five-point favorite against the Trojans when they square off on the Farm on Saturday. Clay Helton’s side has the winning streak on its side in the series, but Stanford looks like the better team heading into the contest.
In the rematch of last year’s conference title game, Stanford is going to prevail at home. Here are five reasons why the Cardinal will take down USC to stay unbeaten and consolidate its position in the top 10 of the AP Top 25.
5. Bryce Love will be better than he was against San Diego State
Bryce Love was one of the most dynamic rushers in 2017. He eclipsed the 2,000-yard mark and scored 19 touchdowns on the ground as he took over full-time duties in the backfield from Christian McCaffrey. Love became a Heisman favorite entering the 2018 season as a result of his return to Stanford instead of declaring early for the NFL Draft.
He was supposed to open his Heisman campaign with a big game against San Diego State. Against the Aztecs in 2017, Love finished with 184 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries. He added a single three-yard reception as well, one of just six catches all year by the feature back.
In this year’s showdown against the Aztecs, Love came nowhere near that production. He did get three receptions for 18 yards, bolstering his contribution to the passing game. But Love struggled to get the Stanford ground game going, as he finished with only 29 rushing yards on 18 carries. Even with such a low yardage total, Love was still the top rusher for the Cardinal in the opener.
USC will bring out the best in Love. In two games against the Trojans last year, Love averaged 20 carries for 142 yards and a touchdown per outing. Stanford’s star in the backfield is going to break out of his season-opening slump and go off for at least 150 rushing yards and adding at least one long reception.
4. JJ Arcega-Whiteside will have another big day
In 2017, JJ Arcega-Whiteside didn’t reach 200 receiving yards until October. He hit that mark before September even rolled around this season, and the big-play production will continue for the Cardinal target when Stanford hosts USC in Week 2.
Against San Diego State, Arcega-Whiteside broke out as the newest offensive star for the Cardinal. The receiver hauled in six passes for 226 yards and three scores. Quarterback K.J. Costello finished 21-of-31 for 332 yards and four touchdowns. Taking Arcega-Whiteside’s contribution out of the equation, Costello was 15-of-23 for 106 yards and one touchdown.
UNLV doesn’t provide a good measure of how the USC secondary is performing this year, given the Rebels focus heavily on running the ball. A better measure to consider is the fact that the Trojans ranked 82nd nationally in passing yards allowed last season.
Costello is going to improve on his numbers in his only game against USC last year, and a big part of that will be the emergence of Arcega-Whiteside. The breakout Cardinal star of Week 1 will continue to have a major impact on the passing game. Look for the receiver to finish with at least 150 receiving yards and two touchdowns against USC’s spotty secondary.
3. Defense will pester JT Daniels into rookie mistakes
Young quarterback JT Daniels graduated early and earned the starting gig as a true freshman. He looked solid against UNLV, but Stanford’s defense presents a completely different challenge. Stanford’s defense consistently flustered the San Diego State offense in the season opener, and there is little reason to think they won’t be able to do the same against USC on Saturday.
The front seven did a great job of getting push up front. With five sacks and seven tackles for loss, the Stanford line and linebackers did a great job of controlling the trenches and getting into the backfield. Stanford even managed a safety to break the seal on the Cardinal scoring midway through the second quarter. That means Daniels is going to be rushed in the pocket with greater frequency than he has ever endured in the college ranks.
Stanford’s secondary has also been solid. They are one of the deepest units in the country, and they finished last season ranked 12th in the FBS in interceptions. Given the pressure Daniels will be facing up front, he is going to be more susceptible to throwing into coverage and lobbing up interceptions.
Daniels is going to make at least three rookie mistakes that thwart Trojans advances. Stanford will capitalize on those bungles to set themselves up for victory.
2. Cameron Scarlett will make difference on offense, special teams
Cameron Scarlett has the potential to be Stanford’s next great running back. He offers a multi-talented threat in both the offense and on special teams. Scarlett had 1,008 kick return yards in 2017, and he is due for another breakout game. That will come this week when USC visits Stanford Stadium.
He was quiet in the season opener, managing just 16 yards on his seven carries. Scarlett failed to haul in any passes, and he was not provided much opportunity to do anything on special teams. That won’t be the case in Week 2.
USC won’t be afraid to kick to Scarlett on their visit to Palo Alto, especially after he had just one return for 20 yards last week against San Diego State. He might not bust off a touchdown return, but he will rip off several long runs that open up good field position for the defense.
Once Stanford gets the ball, they will look to control the game on the ground. Love will obviously be a critical part of that effort, but Scarlett will also have his part to play. The understudy has the potential to break the game wide open, and with USC likely focused on Love and Arcega-Whiteside it will open up the possibility for Scarlett to break out.
1. Jet Toner will play a critical role in getting Stanford the win
It isn’t always the most beloved part of football, but ostensibly the kicking game is still a part of the game. And on Saturday in Palo Alto, special teams will prove a critical part of the contest. Jet Toner went 21-of-26 last year in his first season kicking for the Cardinal, and completed all 54 of his extra-point attempts.
Against San Diego State, Toner missed a 38-yard field goal on the first Stanford drive of the game. He ended up converting all three of his extra points to pace the Stanford win, and seemed not to have any long memory about the miss.
That depends on what circumstances arise, but on Saturday Toner will be ready for anything that comes up. He converted all eight kicks he attempted against the Trojans in two games last season, and that trend will continue in 2018. Whether they are field goals or extra points, Toner is going to come through in a big showdown of top-15 programs in conference play.
It isn’t always the most fun thing to see the kicker come out onto the field. But for Stanford, it will always work out for the best on Saturday. Toner’s kicks will prove the difference in a game that USC keeps inside the point spread.