Week 3 brings several ranked vs. ranked college football matchups. Which teams should be on high alert for being upset?
We are cruising right along into mid-September of the college football season. There are some good matchups this week, some on the national radar and some undervalued games that have the potential to be good.
After a good start to the season on picking three out of five upsets in Week 1, we were skunked last week. Georgia, Mississippi State, Stanford and Iowa all had comfortable wins. We were right to put Clemson on upset alert against Texas A&M, but they survived in the end.
We missed the picks, but shout out to Arizona State and Kentucky on their upset wins over Michigan State and Florida, respectively.
This week we are looking to do better. The betting lines, provided by Oddshark, are all close this week at 10 points or less. But given the nature of some of the picks (i.e. traditional powerhouse versus off the radar team), they should still be considered upset picks. Plus, there is one pick so unreal you will just have to read to believe it.
Without further adieu, here are the upset picks for Week 3.
It’s Tigers versus Tigers in a huge SEC West clash set for Saturday afternoon as Auburn hosts LSU. The Tigers in burnt orange and navy blue are favored by 10 points.
The last two matchups in this series have been decided by 5 points or less, with each school winning at home. The winner of this year’s edition will have a leg up early in the SEC West, even though both will still face division favorite Alabama later this season. Auburn still went on to win the SEC West last season despite losing to LSU.
The Auburn offensive line has been very good so far, but LSU’s defensive front is playing fantastic through two games. They hammered Miami for four sacks and added another five against Alabama State.
On the offensive front, LSU has yet to turnover the ball this season. Quarterback Joe Burrow has not thrown an interception in 83 attempts at the collegiate level. It is a small sample size and his completion percentage is not great at 47 percent, but he has taken care of the ball thus far. LSU also is a perfect eight for eight in the redzone.
On paper, Auburn appears to be the better team, but there are a few things that give LSU fans hope. Get after Auburn on defense with relentless pressure, control the game on offense and when set up in the red zone, make sure you punch it in. If LSU does this, they can walk away with their first win in Auburn since the 2012 season.
In Pac-12 After Dark action, Washington travels to Salt Lake City to take on the Utes of Utah. The Huskies are currently a seven point favorite.
After an opening loss to Auburn, Washington did rebound against FCS North Dakota with a 45-3 victory. Now they face their first Pac-12 opponent of the year and it will not be easy. Washington has won four of the five match-ups against Utah since the Utes joined the Pac-12 in 2011, but the last two games have been decided by seven points or less. Last year the Utes had a touchdown lead late, only to see the Huskies score two touchdowns in the final minute to steal a victory.
Utah is the nation’s best defense through two games. The Utes are the only team allowing less than 150 yards per game and have given up a total of 16 points in two games. Then again their opponents have been less than stellar, FCS Weber State and Northern Illinois. But give credit where it is due and they should give the Huskies a test at home.
With the Auburn loss, the Huskies know they can longer afford a slip up if they want to make it to the College Football Playoff. Utah has to play stellar defense and extend drives to pull the upset. They will be looking to avenge the last two heartbreaking losses to Washington and it can be a great motivator for a team. Washington needs to be on the look out.
In the first ever match-up between the two schools, Boise State travels to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are favored by three points.
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In Week 1, we predicted Boise State would have trouble at Troy and they promptly destroyed the Trojans 56-20. Last week they routed Connecticut 62-7 while setting a school record for most yards in a game at an astounding 818 total yards. While the competition has not been great, Boise State is clicking right now.
Boise State may be scoring 59 points per game, but Oklahoma State is only slightly behind them, scoring 56.5 points per game in wins over Montana State and South Alabama. While neither team has played juggernauts, we should expect a ton of points in this game.
The Broncos have the opportunity to become the Group of Five’s representative in the College Football Playoff. Boise State loves opportunities against Power 5 teams and a road win over Oklahoma State would boost their resume. Smart money says Oklahoma State is in trouble Saturday afternoon.
No this is not a basketball preview. This is legitimate and hear us out. The Kansas Jayhawks, winners of three games in the past three seasons, are favored in a football game as they host Rutgers. The Jayhawks are favored by three points.
How is this possible? The last power 5 opponent Kansas defeated was Texas in 2016. You can pause to make fun of Texas for a moment. But the Jayhawks have not defeated a Power 5 team outside the Big 12 since they upset Georgia Tech in 2010. The Jayhawks are bad. We mean really bad.
To continue hammering that point home, here is an interesting stat from last season. In their 43-0 loss at TCU last season, the Jayhawks had a total of 21 yards, the fewest by an FBS team in the last 20 years. For long stretches of the game, they had negative yardage. All around sadness for Kansas.
The Jayhawks started the season in traditional form, losing to FCS Nicholls State in overtime. But then a minor miracle happened last week. The Jayhawks won a road game for the first time since 2009, beating Central Michigan 31-7. The victory broke a 46 game road losing streak for the Jayhawks.
Rutgers has a slew of problems on their own, but they did get good news this week when freshman quarterback Artur Sitkowski’s shoulder injury does not appear as bad as originally thought and he is listed as day to day. If he starts, Rutgers should have a chance to pull off the minor, and we stress minor, upset. Rutgers may not be good, but we do not believe they are as bad as Kansas.
Florida State gets the distinction of being the first team to appear on upset alert for the second time this season. This week they travel to Syracuse, looking to avoid starting 0-2 in ACC play for the second time in three seasons. The Seminoles are three point favorites.
There was so much optimism emanating out of Tallahassee this off-season. While there was a coaching change, Willie Taggart had success at his previous stops. Many fans thought last season was an anomaly and the Seminoles would compete again in the ACC this season.
After two weeks, the Seminoles have not looked good. They were taken to school by Virginia Tech in Week 1, losing 24-3. Then last week with a game against FCS Samford, one would think the Seminoles would be much improved. However they were down 13-0 to the Bulldogs early and needed late game heroics to win 36-26. Samford racked up over 500 yards total offense and if not for five turnovers, probably walk out of Tallahassee upset victors.
Syracuse is 2-0, with wins over Western Michigan and FCS Wagner. Orange quarterback Eric Dungey has a solid arm and can beat you both through the air and with his legs. The Seminole defense has been inconsistent at best thus far so they better watch out.
In 11 games in this series, Florida State has won the last 10. Syracuse’s last win was the first meeting back in 1966. There are just too many questions with Florida State right now and less with Syracuse. Take the Orange at home to pull off the big win.