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College Football Predictions 2018: Picks for the biggest games of Week 8

By John Mitchell

COLUMBUS, OH - SEPTEMBER 22: Head Coach Urban Meyer of the Ohio State Buckeyes watches as his team warms up before a game against the Tulane Green Wave at Ohio Stadium on September 22, 2018 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
COLUMBUS, OH - SEPTEMBER 22: Head Coach Urban Meyer of the Ohio State Buckeyes watches as his team warms up before a game against the Tulane Green Wave at Ohio Stadium on September 22, 2018 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

Michigan at Michigan State (12 p.m. ET, FOX)

Spread: Michigan -7

Not many teams have been more difficult to figure out this season than Michigan State. The Spartans opened the season with underwhelming performances in a close win over Utah State and a close road loss to Arizona State. They didn’t look much better in wins over Indiana and Central Michigan, and then dropped a home game to Northwestern, giving them their second loss to a team outside of the S&P+ top 50.

It seemed pretty clear that Michigan State just wasn’t very good and that they were likely to be fully exposed in Happy Valley against Penn State. Instead, Sparty took advantage of some fortuitous bounces (they fumbled four times and recovered all four) to come away with a surprising victory over the Nittany Lions to put themselves back in contention in the Big 10 East.

Mark Dantonio has made a living on knocking off the top teams from the Big Ten, going 14-7 against Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State since 2010 (14-4 if you ignore an outlier year in 2016 in which the Spartans went 3-9). It often defies reason, and no coach is more aware of that than Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh.

Harbaugh is 1-2 against Michigan State with two baffling losses. All Michigan had to do in 2015 was get a punt off to earn Harbaugh his first signature win in Ann Arbor. Last year, the Wolverines held the Spartans to 94 passing yards and lost because they turned the ball over five times to Michigan State’s zero.

This game has followed little logic recently, so you have to expect the unexpected coming in. Without a crazy outlier performance or a bunch of turnovers, it’s just hard for me to see Michigan State having enough to take down Michigan. The Wolverines have emerged as a serious College Football Playoff threat, winning six in a row after their season opening loss at Notre Dame with the country’s stingiest defense. The offense is getting better every week as well led by Karan Higdon’s legs with Shea Patterson being more of a game manager than the gun slinger we saw at Ole Miss.

Even on the road, the Wolverines should get the win and further establish themselves as one of college football’s best teams.

Pick: Michigan 24, Michigan State 14

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